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Course experience key at Waialae
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54-hole leaders worth taking on
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Read my Dubai Invitational preview here
Tournament History
The Sony Open dates all the way back to the 1920s and it's been a regular on the PGA Tour since 1965.
It's ordinarily the first full field event of the year following The Sentry the week before, but that limited field event was cancelled back in October due to drought conditions at Kapalua, so for anyone that didn't feature in the Hero World Challenge back in December, this is the first chance of tournament action since the RSM Classic back in November.
Venue
Waialae Country Club, Honolulu, Hawaii.
Course Details
Par 70, 7,044 yards
Stroke average in 2025 - 68.73
Designed by Seth Raynor, Waialae is a short, tree-lined, wind-affected course with small Bermuda Greens. Water is in play on just three holes and the greens usually run at around 11 on the Stimpmeter.
There were a couple of changes to the course prior to the 2019 renewal. A fairway bunker was removed on the 10th and the green was doubled in size, and the par five finishing hole had its green increased in size by approximately a third.
As you'll see below, with the list of winners, scores can vary quite considerably depending on how penal the rough is and more importantly, how strong the wind blows.
Weather Forecast
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, beginning at 17:00 on Thursday.
Last 10 Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices
2025 - Nick Taylor -16 140.0139/1 (playoff)
2024 - Grayson Murray -17 1000.0999/1 (playoff)
2023 - Si Woo Kim -18 70.069/1
2022 - Hideki Matsuyama -23 21.020/1 (playoff)
2021 - Kevin Na -21 120.0119/1
2020 - Cameron Smith -11 65.064/1 (playoff)
2019 - Matt Kuchar -22 48.047/1
2018 - Patton Kizzire -17 85.084/1 (playoff)
2017 - Justin Thomas -27 17.016/1
2016 - Fabian Gomez -20 110.0109/1
What Will it Take to Win the Sony Open?
The last two winners have ranked only 26th and 14th for Driving Accuracy but when Matt Kuchar won here seven years ago, ranking fourth for DA, it was interesting to hear how important he thought it was to be straight off the tee when comparing this course to El Camaleón in Mexico (more on that below).
"Both courses are very tight, very demanding driving golf courses. That would probably be the biggest similarity."
Power is certainly not an important prerequisite here and I'd favour accuracy over length off the tee but given the 2021 winner, Kevin Na, only ranked 49th for DA, the 2020 champ, Cam Smith, ranked only 41st, the 2018 winner, Patton Kizzire, ranked 56th, and Justin Thomas broke the PGA Tour's 72-hole scoring record when he won here nine years ago ranking only 60th for DA, being arrow-straight is clearly not that vital.
The three winners between 2020 and 2022 ranked 20th, 26th and 36th for Greens In regulation but that was a very irregular little spell given the last three winners have ranked fourth, second and second, the 2019 winner, Kuchar, ranked first and 20 of the last 24 have ranked 12th or better for that stat.
Last year's winner, Nick Taylor, ranked only ninth for Putting Average and 23rd for Strokes Gained: Putting but as with all low scoring events, holing lots of putts is usually the key to victory and the five winners between 2017 and 2021 had a PA ranking of sixth, second, fifth, second and first.
Is There an Angle In?
As many as six players this century have won both this event and The Sentry, ordinarily staged at Kapalua the week before, and a number of other of venues on the PGA Tour correlate nicely with Waialae too.
The Seaside Course in Sea Island, Georgia, which hosts the RSM Classic, Harbour Town Links in South Carolina, home of the RBC Heritage, and El Camaleón, the venue for the World Wide Technology Championship in Mexico up until 2022, are all short seaside tracks with tricky, grainy greens and I'd also consider both TPC Southwind and Colonial Country Club, venue of the Charles Schwab Challenge, as similar types of test.
The first and second here in 2021, Kevin Na and Chris Kirk, have both won at Colonial.
Hideki Matsuyama, Fabian Gomez and David Toms have all won here and at TPC Southwind so that looks a strong link but it's form at El Camaleón - the former home of the World Wide Technology Championship - that needs the closest inspection.
The first and second in Mexico a decade ago, Pat Perez and Gary Woodland, have both been placed here before and even though the World Wide Technology Championship was only staged 16 times in total at El Camaleón, five players have won at both venues (Kuchar, Patton Kizzire, Russell Henley, Mark Wilson and Johnson Wagner), and it could have easily been six or seven...
The 2023 winner here, Si Woo Kim finished third at El Camaleón in 2017 and the 2013 World Wide Technology Championship winner, Harris English, has a good record here. He finished third in 2015 and fourth in 2014, having traded at a low of 1.674/6. And English is also another former winner of the St. Jude Classic at TPC Southwind.
Given 18 of the last 27 Sony Open winners, and nine of the last 12, have played The Sentry the week before they won here, we're missing the best angle in this year but there are other factors to bear in mind.
Other Pointers to Consider
Taylor had won the Phoenix Open 11 months before winning here, the shock 2024 winner, Grayson Murray, had won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023, and five of the previous nine winners had won earlier in the wraparound PGA Tour season, so a recent victory looks a big pointer.
Taylor was a 120.0119/1 chance 12 months ago and Murray was a 1000.0999/1 chance, so the last two winners have been hard to spot but they were far from the first long-shots to take the title.
This has been an excellent event for big-priced winners over the years, but previous course experience has still been almost essential.
Like the 2018 winner, Kizzire, Murray had missed the cut here in his only previous visit and Russell Henley won here 13 years ago in his first PGA Tour event, but those three are the only winners here since 1996 not to have played Waialae Country Club at least twice previously and Henley was the first winner in his 20s here since Paul Stankowski way back in 1997 so look to the more experienced stars.
Course experience looks important and Taylor has finished seventh in each of the two previous renewals, but strong course form isn't vital. In addition to Murray and Kizzire, Gomez's course form figures read MC-67-MC prior to his victory ten years ago and when Jimmy Walker took the title for the first time, in 2014, his figures read MC-61-32-MC-4-MC-26. Cameron Smith had somewhat modest course form figures in 2020, reading MC-27-18-22, and when Johnson Wagner took the title in 2012, his previous course form numbers read 34-MC-MC-MC-MC.
Prior to his victory three years ago, Si Woo Kim had course form figures reading 4-58-MC-25-55 and Matsuyama's course form figures read MC-MC-MC-MC-27-51-12-19 prior to his victory four years ago.
Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four
2025 - Nick Taylor tied fifth 20.019/1
2024 - Grayson Murray - tied for the lead 6.611/2
2023 - Si Woo Kim tied fifth - trailing by three 10.519/2
2022 - Hideki Matsuyama solo 2nd - trailing by two 3.55/2
2021 - Kevin Na tied second - trailing by two 8.27/1
2020 - Cameron Smith solo 2nd - trailing by three 5.49/2
2019 - Matt Kuchar led by two strokes 1.684/6
2018 - Patton Kizzire T2nd - trailing by one 5.14/1
2017 - Justin Thomas led by seven strokes 1.141/7
2016 - Fabian Gomez solo 5th - trailing by four 55.054/1
In-Play Tactics
Patience might be needed here if you're going to try and catch the winner in-play.
We've seen five players win wire-to-wire here this century, so frontrunners have a very fair record, but Taylor sat tied 12th after the first round last year and the five winners before him all sat outside the top 20 after the opening round.
This used to be a venue at which a fast start was extremely beneficial but in addition to the last six winners, Kizzire sat tied for 20th and four back after round one in 2018 and two years earlier, Fabian Gomez was tied for 68th, six off the lead, and matched at 900.0899/1 after round one.
Whether we concentrate on the early pacesetters or scan a bit further down the leaderboard after round one, one thing we can rely on here is late drama.
Murray was tied for the lead with a round to go two years ago but Waialae is not an easy place to convert from the front if the last few years are anything to go by.
As many as six of the last eight 54-hole leaders have been beaten and prior to Murray, the previous four third round leaders all traded at very short odds before losing.
A year after Brendan Steele was matched at just 1.111/9 in-running before getting beat by Smith in extra time in 2020, Steele was matched at a low of 1.374/11 before getting caught and passed by Kevin Na in 2021 and having led by five with just nine to play in 2022, Russell Henley was matched at just 1.061/18 in-running!
The 2023 third round leader, Hayden Buckley, didn't do an awful lot wrong but he was caught late on by Kim, who chipped in for birdie at the par three 17th, and he was matched at a low of 1.331/3.
It's a great event to trade on a Sunday and five of the last eight renewals have gone to extra time.
We saw three men trade at odds-on on Sunday last year (the winner, the runner-up, Nico Echavarria, and 54-hole leader, JJ Spaun) and four players traded at less than even money in 2024 so it's worth taking anyone on that goes odds-on but the leaders go out very late UK time so placing a lay bet at skinny odds on the 54-hole leader is another way to play the tournament.
It's been a worthwhile exercise on many occasions lately and it may just provide a pleasant surprise on Monday morning for those not wanting to stop up into the early hours in the UK.
I'm on holiday this week so there'll be no pre-event selections, but Matt Cooper will be back later in the week with the find Me a 100 Winner column and I'll be back on Saturday evening with the In-Play Blog.