Dubai Invitational: The Punter's Preview

• Fleetwood looking to defend in Dubai

• Rory seeking redemption after near miss two years ago

• Read my Sony Open preview here

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Tournament History

After a break of four weeks, the DP World Tour resumes with the second edition of the Dubai Invitational, staged at the Dubai Creek Resort.

Tommy Fleetwood birdied the last two holes to win the inaugural event two years ago and it's the first tournament of the DP World Tour's International Swing.

The event is staged biannually with a field consisting of 60 professional DP World Tour players, and 60 amateur golfers.

Starting on Thursday, the Dubai Invitational is a traditional 72-hole stroke play tournament that will be played concurrently with a three-day Pro-Am team event, with Sunday featuring the professionals only.

The inaugural staging was very well received, and we have a strong line up again this time around with the defending champ, Fleetwood, joined by the world number two, Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry, Nicolai Hojgaard, Ryan Fox, Rasmus Norgaard-Petersen and Jayden Shaper.

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Venue

The Championship Course, Dubai Creek Resort, Dubai, UAE.

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Course Details

Par 71, 7059 yards

Known for its distinctive sail-shaped clubhouse, the Karl Litton-designed Championship Course at the Dubai Creek Golf Club first opened as long ago as 1993.

In addition to this event two years ago, the club staged two editions of next week's DP World Tour event - the Dubai Desert Classic - at the turn of the century with England's David Howell wining by four in 13-under-par in 1999, before Argentina's Jose Coceres won 12 months later by two in -14.

It also staged two editions of a tournament called the Dubai Creek Open on the Asian Tour back in 1996 and 1997.

The fairways are described as undulating and water is a constant feature, whether via manmade lakes or the Creek itself, which comes in to play on at least four holes.

There is a hole-by hole guide of the course on the venue's website here and the flyover below gives a nice feel for the track.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all for days, starting at 7:30 UK time.

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Inaugural Winner with Pre-event Exchange Price

2024 - Tommy Fleetwood -19 12.011/1

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What Will it Take to Win the Dubai Invitational?

This isn't a tough track, and low scores are certainly possible. Rory McIlroy kicked off the inaugural edition with a nine-under-par 62 to lead by two and both Fleetwood (round three) and Francesco Molinari (round four), recorded eight-under-par 63s.

Stats-wise, it was all about finding the greens in 2024.

Fleetwood topped the Greens In Regulation and eight of the top 12 ranked tied seventh or better for GIR.

The first seven home ranked first, 14^th, third, second, fifth, fourth and 20^th for Strokes gained: Tee-to-Green.

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Is There an Angle In?

Desert form very often crosses over so look to form at the Dubai Desert Classic, the Abu Dhabi Championship, the Ras Al Khaimah Championship, the Qatar Masters, and the DP World Tour Championship. And links form is also well worth considering.

Events staged at desert tracks are played in very different conditions than experienced at your typical links event like the Scottish Open, the Open Championship or the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, but the courses are similar and form between the two course types translates well.

Links and desert courses are typically flat and wind exposed.

Many fine links exponents enjoy desert golf and that was the case last year with the first three home, Fleetwood, McIlroy and Thriston Lawrence, all having form in the biggest links event of them all - the Open Championship.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2024 - Tommy Fleetwood - led by one 2.526/4

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In-Play Tactics

As highlighted above, desert tracks play similarly to links layouts, and frontrunners are very often favoured at both links and desert courses.

As the wind dries out the exposed courses, they become harder to score on, and the early pacesetters often hold their advantages all the way to the finishing line.

In the five events staged here so far, all five winners were inside the top six places after round one, three winners were leading at halfway and four were leading after round three.

The first four course winners have sat first or second at halfway and in the two editions of the Dubai Desert Classic staged here, David Howell was never headed after sitting sixth and two back after round one and Jose Coceres won wire-to-wire.

Jordan Smith, who finished fourth last year, was tied for 10^th after round one but he sat fourth after every subsequent round and the first three home were inside the top four and ties all week long.

What limited evidence we have suggests we should be concentrating on the frontrunners from very early on but with so much water in play, we're highly likely to witness plenty of drama again and a straightforward passage to victory looks unlikely.

Rory McIlroy, who was matched at as low as 1.282/7 after just four holes of his second round two years ago, found the water twice on the par three eighth hole to record a quadruple-bogey seven in round two and he was trading at just 1.21/5 with two holes to play when he stiffed his approach on 17 to five feet.

He looked highly likely to go two clear of Fleetwood and one on front of Lawrence, but he missed the birdie putt after Fleetwood had drained his from outside 30 feet before driving into the water on the 72^nd hole.

Having been matched at as high as 60.059/1 on the penultimate hole, Fleetwood then rolled in this birdie putt on 18 to win by one!

Birdie-birdie finish.@TommyFleetwood1 wins in Dubai! #DubaiInvitational pic.twitter.com/pVB4zVhJVE

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) January 14, 2024

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Redemption-seeking Rory will be tough to beat

Rory will line up on Thursday after a nice break following an incredible 2025 which saw him finally rack up the career Grand Slam and despite all that success, he'll be keen to make amends here.

He'll be wondering how on earth he didn't take the title two years ago and he'll be eager to put that right.

In addition to finding water several times, he also three putted the par three 14^th from just two feet in round four so it's a tournament he really should have won.

A three putt from two feet for Rory.@TommyFleetwood1 takes the solo lead.#DubaiInvitational pic.twitter.com/hnkgCMpp18

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) January 14, 2024

The world number two went off at around 4.3100/30 two years ago and odds of anywhere close to that will represent value around a course that clearly fits his eye.

I'm on holiday this week so there'll be no pre-event selections but Matt Cooper will be back later in the week with the find Me a 100 Winner column and I'll be back on Saturday evening with the In-Play Blog.

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Now read more Golf tips and previews here

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