Sanderson Farms Championship: Poston can challenge at 37/1 in birdie-fest

• A strong week with the putter the key to victory

• Great event for long-shots

• Read my Alfred Dunhill Links preview here

Tournament History

The Sanderson Farms Championship was first staged at the Hattiesburg Country Club in 1968. In 1994 it moved to the Annandale Country Club and then 11 years ago it moved to the Country Club of Jackson. The event also changed its position in the PGA Tour schedule in 2014, moving to the autumn from the July slot it had occupied over the previous three years. 

Originally played opposite the US Masters in April, it's also been played opposite the Tour Championship, the Ryder Cup, the Presidents Cup, the Open Championship, and a couple of different World Golf Championship events but it's now establishing itself as a standalone tournament and this is the seventh year in-a-row that the Sanderson Farms Championship isn't playing second fiddle to another PGA Tour event.

Venue

The Country Club of Jackson, Jackson, Mississippi

Course Details

Par 72, 7,461yards
Stroke Index in 2024 - 69.42

The Country Club of Jackson was founded over 100 years ago, but this week's host course only opened in 1962. It's a composite of two Dick Wilson-designed nines called Dogwood and Azalea and the 18 holes have been extensively remodelled a number of times. On the last occasion, in 2008, by the heavily Donald Ross-influenced, John Fought.

The course is Bermuda and the greens vary in size and are often perched up with tricky looking run-off areas. They're usually set to run at 13 on the Stimpmeter.

This is the 12^th time the Country Club of Jackson has hosted the tournament and it's always averaged under-par.

Weather

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 17:00 on Thursday.

Last 10 Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2024 - Kevin Yu -23 140.0139/1
2023 - Luke List -17 60.059/1 (playoff)
2022 - Mackenzie Hughes 150.0149/1 (playoff)
2021 - Sam Burns -22 20.019/1
2020 - Sergio Garcia -19 70.069/1
2019 - Sebastian Munoz -18 75.074/1 (playoff)
2018 - Cameron Champ -21 70.069/1
2017 - Ryan Armour -19 110.0109/1
2016 - Cody Gribble -20 110.0109/1
2015 - Peter Malnati -18 500.0499/1

What Will it Take to Win the Sanderson Farms?

Although four of the last seven winners have ranked inside the top 10 for Driving Distance, bombing it off the tee isn't essential. The 2022 playoff protagonists, Mackenzie Hughes and Sepp Straka, only ranked 25^th and 41^st for DD, the 2015 winner, Peter Malnati, ranked 65^th and the 2017 champ, Ryan Armour, only ranked 69^th.

Finding fairways isn't crucial either. The first three course winners ranked 40^th, 35^th and 38^th for DA, the 2019 winner, Sebastian Munoz, ranked only 36^th, the 2018 winner, Cameron Champ, only 65^th and the last three winners have ranked only 50^th, 53^rd and 40^th.

I'd marginally favour length over accuracy from the tee but the key stat is Greens In regulation.

Three of the top four last year, and three of the top five in 2023, ranked inside the top 10 for GIR.

Although Mackenzie Hughes only ranked 37^th for GIR when winning in 2022, the second and third ranked second and third for GIR and Emiliano Grillo, who finished tied for fifth, topped the rankings.

Cody Gribble, the 2016 winner here, only ranked 29^th for GIR but the other nine course winners have ranked inside the top 10 and the two winners before Hughes, Sam Burns and Sergio Garcia, both hit more greens in regulation than anyone else.

Finding the greens with regularity alone is not enough though, you usually need to putt very well here to win.

Last year's winner, Kevin Yu, ranked second for both Strokes Gained: Putting and Putting Average, and of the five men to make it into the playoff two years ago, four ranked inside the top seven for SG: Putting.

As many as five of the top eight in 2022 ranked inside the top-ten for PA, the first three home in 2021 ranked 11^th, first and fourth for PA, and the first five winners at the track ranked fifth, second, first, second and first.

The picture's quite clear, you need to find plenty of greens and putt the lights out to win and events like this are always hard to predict given it's almost impossible to know beforehand who's going to have a great week with the flat-stick. Which will go some way to explaining why outsiders have a very fair record.

Is There an Angle In?

There are almost too many course correlations to consider here but the three strongest appear to be Detroit Golf Club, Sedgefield Country Club and Victoria National.

Although they fell back over the weekend, Sanderson winners, Cameron Champ, Peter Malnati and Ryan Armour were all inside the top-ten of the inaugural Rock Classic at the Donald Ross designed, Detroit Golf Club, Cameron Young, who won at Sedgefield in August, has finished runner-up in both events and the two time Rocket Classic winner, Cameron Davis, was tied for the lead here with a round to go in 2020. And that renewal of this event provided plenty of evidence to suggest there's a strong link to another Ross-designed course - Sedgefield - home of the Wyndham Championship.

The 2020 winner, Sergio Garcia, won the Wyndham 13 years ago and two other Wyndham winners pressed the Spaniard on Sunday. Brandt Snedeker, the 2018 winner, was matched at a low of 3.55/2, and J.T Poston, the 2019 Wyndham winner, hit a low of 2.526/4.

Last year's third, Lucas Glover, who finished fourth in the Rocket Classic two years ago, won the Wyndham Championship last year.

At first glance, it's perhaps odd that two Donald Ross tracks appear to link but it stands to reason considering Jackson was extensively remodelled in 2008 by the heavily Ross-influenced, John Fought.

Quite why the Bentgrass Tom Fazio designed Victoria National in Indiana should correlate with the Bermuda grass Country Club of Jackson in Mississippi is a bit of a mystery but there are results to suggest it does. 

The 2016 Sanderson Farms Championship winner, Cody Gribble, finished second to Seamus Power in the United Leasing Championship at Victoria National on the Korn Ferry Tour in May '16. Power contended at the SFC again in 2017, having been in the thick of the action early on in 2016 on debut, and alongside Gribble in second in Indiana was Jonathan Randolph, who finished third here seven years ago.

Smylie Kaufman, who finished fourth here in 2017, won the United Leasing Championship eight years ago and the 2016 SFC runner-up, Greg Owen, won the 2014 edition of the United Leasing Championship, with the 2017 SFC winner, Ryan Armour, finishing second!

And the 2023 winner, Luke List, was two clear at the halfway stage of the United Leasing Championship at Victoria at the halfway stage back in 2015.

The last edition of the United Leasing Championship was in 2018 but up until this year, the Victoria National had been the host course for the Korn Ferry Tour Championship. That tournament switches to the Pete Dye designed Frenck Lick Resort this year but results up until last year are worth looking at.

And finally, the Barbasol Championship links strongly to the Wyndham so that's another event to consider.

Is There an Identikit Winner?

Now that it's a standalone event, the calibre of the winners may increase over time but this a great event for long-shots and last year's winner went off at a triple-figure price.

Prior to Sergio's success five years ago, all six course winners had - had far more experience on the Korn Ferry Tour than on the PGA Tour so whether young or old, looking to recently graduated Korn Ferry Tour players looks a good angle in.

Prior to six years ago, Luke Donald had been the only player from outside the States and Canada to win this title in more than 50 years so that's something that looks to be changing but players from the southern states do particularly well in this event as a rule.

Although Yu was born in Taiwan, he now resides in the neighbouring state of Louisiana and the runner-up to Yu, Hossler, is a Texan.

The 2023 winner, List, was born in Seatle, Washington but he now resides in Sea Island Georgia and Ryan Armour comes from Ohio, so he's a bit further north but the 2021 winner, Burns, is also from Louisiana, Gribble comes from Texas and the 2015 winner, Peter Malnati, is from Tennessee, where he won on the Korn Ferry Tour. 

Although Burns went off favourite four years ago, this has been a good event for outsiders. The first four course winners all went off at triple-figure prices and the next three winners were fairly unfancied too, going off at around 70.069/1.

Yu had form figures reading MC-MC-73-52-MC and he was not the first to win here with poor current form.

With form figures reading MC-MC-MC-MC-56th, it was just about impossible to pick out Malnati before the off 10 years ago and in Nick Taylor's first three PGA Tour events in 2014, he'd finished MC-56-MC before winning. It's perhaps not that surprising that they were both matched at 1000.0999/1 before the off!

Woody Austin caused a huge shock 12 years ago, when he was matched at more than 400.0399/1 before the off and with form figures reading MC-MC-MC-MC-46-58-25, Hughes was generally a 150.0149/1 chance three years ago.

List in 2023 and Hughes in 2022 were both winning for the second time on the PGA Tour when they took the title here, but Yu was winning for the first time when he took the title 12 months ago and eight of the last 13 victors were winning for the first time on the PGA Tour.

Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2024 - Kevin Yu - solo third, trailing by two 7.613/2
2023 - Luke List - tied third, trailing by four 14.013/1
2022 - Mackenzie Hughes - trailed by one stroke 4.57/2
2021 - Sam Burns - trailed by one stroke 4.216/5
2020 - Sergio Garcia - tied for the lead with two others 4.94/1
2019 - Sebastian Munoz led by one stroke 3.39/4
2018 - Cameron Champ led by four strokes 1.51/2
2017 - Ryan Armour led by five strokes 1.684/6
2016 - Cody Gribble trailed by one stroke 13.525/2
2015 - Peter Malnati trailed by one stroke 13.012/1

In-Play Tactics

It's been a mixed back here so far. Both Champ and Armour won wire-to-wire, the very first course winner, Taylor, sat second after round one and he was always on the premises thereafter, and List was always inside the top-four places all week two years ago but given Cody Gribble sat ten off the lead and outside the top-100 places after round one in 2016, that Malnati overcame a slow start in 2015 (sat tied 42^nd and seven off the pace after day one), and las year's winner, Yu, sat tied for 14^th and six off the lead after round one, this is definitely a venue at which a fast start isn't absolutely essential. 

Hughes sat tied for 43^rd and five off the lead in 2022 but he was tied for the lead at halfway after a sensational 63 in round two, and although a slow start can be overcome, making ground up before the weekend looks key given every course winner here has been inside the top ten places through 36 holes. Yu sat tied for sixth and three back. 

Between 2017 and 2019, all three clear 54-hole leaders won but two of them were five and four strokes ahead and the last four have all been beaten so it's not an easy place to convert.

Ben Griffin was matched at a low of 1.222/9 during round four two years ago, after he'd led by three with 18 to play, and last year's third round leader, Keith Mitchell, hit a low of 1.330/100 when he led by a stroke with just two holes to play, but he didn't even make the playoff.

That was the third playoff in-a-row, so a close finish is a common occurrence, and very late drama is commonplace here.

Jackson has an interesting finish. The par five 14^th and the drivable par four 15^th were the two easiest holes on the course in 2022 and they've been two of the easiest four holes in the last couple of years but the last three holes (all par fours) ranked first, 11^th and third hardest in 2023 and first, 13^th and third hardest last year, which goes someway to explaining why we witness so much late drama.

Poston can deliver at 37/1 

We haven't seen JT Poston in action since he finished 30^th in the BMW Championship in the middle of August but that isn't a concern in the least.

The 32-year-old, whose first PGA Tour title came at the aforementioned Wyndham Championship in 2019, won the Shriners Children's Open in October last year after a break of almost two months.

Bidding to win on the PGA Tour for a fourth time, Poston has already shown an aptitude for the venue having finished 11^th in 2019 and third 12 months later.

He missed the cut here in both 2021 and 2022, but he was in horrendous form four years ago and I'm happy to ignore those last two trips.

He won the Shriners when fresh after the FedEx Cup playoffs 12 months ago and he finished third in that event two years ago after a lengthy break so it's interesting to see him decide to return to Jackson after the break this time around.

This is a track that clearly suit him and, having finished 11^th in the Wyndham Championship, 22^nd in the FedEx St Jude and 30^th in the BMW, he was in decent form before his layoff.

Famed for his relentlessly strong putting and, having won all three of his PGA Tour titles after getting to at least 21-under-par, this low-scoring birdie-fest is right up his alley. He's very fairly priced in what's a relatively weak renewal. 

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