RSM Classic: Improving Eckroat worth following at 41/1

• Last chance to get into the top-125 at the final Fall Series event

• Great event for oursiders

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Tournament History

Originally staged at the Seaside Course alone, the RSM Classic, formerly known as the McGladrey Classic, became a two-course tournament nine years ago, leading to an increased field size.

Competitors will play both the Plantation Course and the Seaside Course in rotation over the first two days, with the Seaside Course being used for both the third and fourth rounds after the cut.

The RSM Classic is the last of seven FedEx Cup Fall Series events so it's the final opportunity for those flirting around the crucial 125 mark in the standings to secure their playing privileges for 2025.

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Venue

Sea Island Resort (Seaside), Sea Island, Georgia

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Course Details

Plantation Course
Par 72, 7,060
Stroke index in 2023 - 70.42

Originally designed by Walter Travis in 1926, the Plantation Course was renovated in 1998 by Rees Jones, who described the course as "parkland by the sea", and it was revamped again in 2019 by Love Golf Design.

Following the revamp five years ago, the course is now 153 yards longer, quite a bit tougher, and the par five eighth hole was the only one unchanged from 2018.

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Seaside Course

Par 70, 7,005 yards
Stroke index in 2023 - 67.58

Originally made up of two separate nine-hole courses - a 1929 Colt and Alison classic and a Joe Lee 1973 creation called the Marchside Nine, the Seaside Course was created in 1999 when Tom Fazio combined the two.

Positioned right on the southern tip of St. Simons Island this sea-side links style Bermuda grass course is susceptible to very windy conditions and quite different to the parkland style Plantation Course.

If the wind doesn't blow it's a very easy track. Sebastian Munoz opened up the 2021 renewal with a ten-under-par 60 and last year's winner, Ludvig Aberg, fired back-to-back 61s over the weekend to win by four!

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 13:00 on Thursday

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2023 - Ludvig Aberg -29 14.013/1
2022 - Adam Svensson -19 160.0159/1
2021 - Talor Gooch -22 55.054/1
2020 - Robert Streb -19 (playoff) 1000.0999/1
2019 - Tyler Duncan (playoff) -19 450.0449/1
2018 - Charles Howell III (playoff) -19 70.069/1
2017 - Austin Cook -21 160.0159/1
2016 - Mackenzie Hughes (playoff) 600.0599/1

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What Will it Take to Win the RSM Classic?

Aberg's 29-under-par 253 total last year beat the previous tournament record by seven strokes and it also tied the lowest 72-hole total in PGA Tour history, matching the winning score of Justin Thomas at the 2017 Sony Open in Hawaii.

His 18-under-par weekend score set the record for the lowest score over a PGA Tour tournament's final two rounds and his final 54 holes also set a PGA Tour record for lowest score over three consecutive rounds.

It was an incredibly impressive way to win your first PGA Tour title, but the conditions were very kind after the rain on Thursday.

As highlighted in the tweet below, Aberg's stats were extremely impressive but with the course softened and the wind down, the Seaside Course was rendered completely defenceless and it's a renewal that we should probably view as a bit of an anomaly.

Ludvig Åberg ranks this week ...

1st in Par 4 Scoring
1st in SG: Off-the-Tee
1st in SG: Tee-to-Green
1st in Birdie % from 200+ yards
T1 in Sand Saves
T1 in Total Driving
T1 in Total Eagles (2)
T1 in Rough Tendency
T1 in Bogey Avoidance
T1 in Putting from 3-4 feet pic.twitter.com/T3XBWSnTfT

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) November 20, 2023

Looking further back, the 2018 winner, Charles Howell, ranked 12^th for Driving Distance and Talor Gooch ranked 20^th three years ago but length off the tee is irrelevant. The 2020 playoff protagonists, Robert Streb and Kevin Kisner, who had both won the title previously, ranked 51^st and 52^nd for DD, and the 2022 winner, Adam Svensson, ranked 52nd.

Kisner ranked only 53^rd for DD when he won in 2015, the 2016 winner, Mackenzie Hughes, was even shorter, ranking only 57^th, and the 2017 winner, Austin Cook, was quite close to the tournament average when he ranked 39^th. The average DD ranking of the 14 winners to date is 34.58.

Accuracy is ordinarily more important than power from the tee here and Svenson ranked fifth for Driving Accuracy two years ago but the first two home in 2021 ranked tied 52^nd for Driving Accuracy and the 2020 winner, Robert Streb, only ranked 36^th so it's really not worth getting hung up on the driving metrics. The average Driving Accuracy ranking of the 14 winners to date is 22.07.

And here are the average rankings for all the other key traditional stats for the 14 tournament winners to date.

Greens In Regulation 15.28
Scrambling 13.28
Putting Average 9.5
Putts per Round 12.8

The 2018 winner, Howell, skews the figures somewhat as his stats were far from typical. He gave it a good biff off the tee, found plenty of fairways and ranked number one for Greens In Regulation but his putting was very poor compared with most winners.

Howell pushed the putting averages up considerably given he ranked 70^th for Putting Average and 54^th for Putts per Round.

The 2015 and 2016 winners, Kisner and Hughes, both ranked number one for PA and both made more birdies than anyone else so it's very often a bit of a putting competition for those that can handle the Bermuda greens.

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Is There an Angle In?

The locals fared very well here in the earlier editions and it used to be a great angle in.

David Howell is from Augusta, Georgia, Kisner went to University in Georgia, and he lives in the neighbouring state of South Carolina. The 2013 winner, Chris Kirk, who said he'd played the Seaside Course at least one hundred times previously when he won, and the inaugural winner, Heath Slocum, both live in Georgia.

A number of players that have gone close to winning also have a connection with the area but after the last few editions, it doesn't look like the strong angle in it once was and the problem with looking for the local angle is that you'll find plenty of players that it applies to.

The tournament host, Davis Love III, has been instrumental in getting this event up and running and he's also been the driving force behind making Sea Island a place that golf professionals want to live and work so there's always plenty of inhabitants in the field each year.

If you're looking for courses that correlate well with the Seaside Course, you're spoilt for choice but last week's Bermuda Championship, which is played at the par 71 Royal Port GC, is a decent place to start.

Last year's Bermuda winner, Camilo Villegas, was beaten in a play-off here in 2016, the 2022 Bermuda winner, Seamus Power, finished fifth here after winning there, the 2019 winner in Bermuda, Brendon Todd, led here through three rounds, two weeks after winning there, and the 2020 Bermuda winner, Brian Gay, has finished fourth and third here previously.

There are also three par 70 Bermuda tracks that are well worth checking out...

Waialae Country Club, home of the Sony Open in Hawaii, Colonial Country Club, venue of the Charles Schwab Challenge (Kisner won the Charles Schwab Challenge in 2017 after winning here in 2015 and Kirk doubled up in 2013 and 2015 too), and TPC Southwind, which hosts the FedEx St. Jude but the two I like best are the par 71 Harbour Town Links in neighbouring South Carolina, which has hosted the RBC Heritage since its inception in 1969, and PGA National - home of the Cognizant Classic since 2007.

The first three winners of this tournament all had a top six finish in the RBC Heritage, the 2013 winner, Kirk, won last year's Cognizant Classic, and an ever-increasing number of players have performed well in both this event and the Cognizant.

One of the four men to be beaten in the playoff here seven years ago, Camilo Villegas, romped to a five-stroke victory at the Cognizant Classic in 2010 and the surprise 2016 winner here, Mackenzie Hughes, who also finished second last year and three years ago, was a huge outsider when finishing second to Sungjae Im in the Cognizant Classic in 2020.

Having just won on the DP World Tour and played in his first Ryder Cup, Aberg was in fine fettle 12 months ago and he went off favourite but winners here haven't always been in hot current form. In fact, it's the opposite. Kisner had finished runner-up in the WGC HSBC Champions in his penultimate start in 2015 and Robert Streb had finished 10^th in the Shriners Children's Open when he won the title on the first occasion but as you'll see with the list below, most had poor form coming into the event and four of the winners had missed the cut in their penultimate start.

2023 - Ludvig Aberg 2-13-10
2022 - Adam Svensson 59-MC-39
2021 - Talor Gooch 5-11-60
2020 - Robert Streb 21-MC-55
2019 - Tyler Duncan - MC-18-47
2018- Charles Howell III - 5-61-MC
2017 - Austin Cook - 25-20-50
2016 - Mackenzie Hughes - 26-68-MC
2015 - Kevin Kisner - 25-37-2
2014 - Robert Streb - 9-31-10
2013 - Chris Kirk - 24-36-25
2012 - Tommy Gainey - 38-66-MC
2011 - Ben Crane - 51-10-MC
2010 - Heath Slocum - 65-50-45

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

Experienced pros bossed the tournament to begin with, but that's all changed recently.

Aberg was 24 only 12 months ago, Svenson was only 28 when he won in 2022, Gooch had just turned 30 when he won three years ago, the 2019 winner, Tyler Duncan, was also only 30 and all four were winning on the PGA Tour for the first time.

And had Patrick Rodgers won the playoff six years ago instead of Howell, who was 39, nine of the last ten winners, and ten of the last 12, would have been winning for the first time on the PGA Tour.

Gooch had been on the PGA Tour since 2017 and Svensson first appeared there in 2018, but inexperienced PGA Tour players have thrived of late.

Duncan was playing in only his second season on the PGA Tour and the 2016 and '17 winners were PGA Tour rookies. In fact, they had remarkably similar profiles. Austin Cook was playing in only his 14^th PGA Tour event with a World Ranking of 302 and Hughes was playing in his ninth with a ranking of 287.

Again, had Rodgers beaten Howell, seven of the last ten winners would have been in their 20s and the other three weren't exactly ancient. Gooch and Duncan had just turned 30 before they won and Kisner was only 31 when he won nine years ago but with distance irrelevant this is a tournament that gives the older guys a chance and outsiders have a fantastic record.

Aberg went off favourite last year and having finished fourth here in 2014 and runner-up in his previous start, Kisner went off at around the 20/1 mark eight years ago but they're by far the shortest priced winners of the tournament to date.

The majority of winners go off at a triple figure price and four of the five playoff protagonists in 2016 were matched at huge prices. The winner, Hughes, was matched at 600.0599/1 before the off (and again in the playoff! - see below) Villegas was matched at 280.0279/1 before the off, Henrik Norlander was a 450.0449/1 shot and Blayne Barber was backed at 500.0499/1.

Svensson was nicely backed from 200.0199/1 t0 160.0159/1 last year, the 2019 winner, Duncan, was a 450.0449/1 chance and Streb went off at 1000.0999/1 three years ago so this is definitely a tournament in which you can throw a few darts.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2023 - Ludvig Aberg - led by one stroke 1.9210/11
2022 - Adam Svensson - T3 - trailing by one 14.5
2021 - Talor Gooch - led by three 1.875/6
2020 - Robert Streb - led by three 2.447/5
2019 - Tyler Duncan T5 - trailing by four 48.047/1
2018 - Charles Howell III - led by one stroke 3.65
2017 - Austin Cook - led by three 1.84/5
2016 - MacKenzie Hughes - led by one stroke 6.25/1

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In-Play Tactics

Adam Svensson trailed by just a stroke after 54 holes two years ago and seven of the last eight winners have been in front at the halfway stage but that doesn't tell half the story.

Frontrunners have clearly had the upper hand of late but this is definitely an event in which you can take on odds-on shots in-running and in which you can chance players from off the pace.

Svensson looked long odds-on to miss the cut after a slow start around the Plantation Course on Friday in 2022 and he was matched at 1000.0999/1 when over par for the tournament after turning for home in one-under-par on Friday, but he got his skates on - on the back-nine, coming home in 30 to climb to tied 43rd at halfway.

He then shot a sensational eight-under-par 62 on Saturday - the best round of the day by two strokes - to move up into a tie for third, before shooting the equal-best round on Sunday (64) to win by two.

Although Svensson and Aberg have been the only players to go odds-on at the last two editions, there's often plenty of drama here and we usually see at least one player go odds-on and get beat.

As many as three men (Cameron Champ, Webb Simpson and Patrick Rodgers) went odds-on in 2018 before getting beat and four of the last eight renewals have gone to extra time.

If you enjoy backing an outsider on a Sunday evening that might just put in a charge form off the pace, then this is most definitely the event for you. I backed Cameron Tringale with a round to go in 2020 at 160.0159/1 and he was matched at a low of 4.94/1 after being matched at 1000.0999/1 when he parred the first four holes on Sunday.

We've only had 14 renewals but already we've seen winners come from four strokes back, five off the pace (twice), and from seven strokes back with a round to go so the recent run of frontrunning winners is quite odd.

Ben Crane came from five shots back to win in 2012 and a year later, Tommy Gainey hit 60 in round four to win by a stroke, having trailed by seven after 54 holes!

Robert Streb began the fourth round trailing by five strokes in 2014 and trading at 110.0109/1 before he went on to win for the first time and 12 months earlier, Tim Clark very nearly did the same thing. He also began round four trading at a triple figure price and five off the lead and he was matched at just 4.03/1 after he'd shot a final round of 62 (one better than Streb and Crane). He would have made a playoff if Chris Kirk hadn't birdied the penultimate hole and we very nearly witnessed another miraculous winner six years ago too...

Patrick Rodgers was absolutely miles back before getting into the playoff. The pre-event 160.0159/1 chance was matched at 1000.0999/1 when he trailed by 12 at halfway and he was still five back with a round to go after shooting 61 in round three. A 62 on Sunday saw him get into the playoff.

With six of the first 14 renewals going to extra time, a tight and dramatic finish can be expected but I'll be amazed if we get anything quite as bizarre as the finish to the 2016 tournament which went to a five-man playoff.

As darkness fell, Billy Horschel eliminated himself on Sunday evening with an unbelievably bad putt on the 18^th green before the Monday finish saw a simply crazy conclusion.

Incredibly, Hughes won the event at the third extra hole, despite never finding the par three 17^th green! All four remaining playoff protagonists missed the green completely and Hughes was somehow matched at 600.0599/1 when his second shot still failed to make the putting surface, but his three rivals all failed to get-up-and-down for par after the Canadian holed out for a three from just off the green.

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Market Leaders

Given the ease with which he won the title 12 months ago, a case can certainly be made for backing the defending champion, Ludvig Aberg, at around the 12/113.00 mark.

He clearly loves the venue, but we haven't seen in him action since he finished down the field in the Tour Championship so that's a negative and although the Swede went off favourite last year, this hasn't been a great event for the fancied runners.

St Simons Island native, Davis Thompson, has only ordinary tournament form reading 23-MC-MC-MC-53, but the 25-year-old's career is on the up after his victory in the John Deere Classic in July. He was a decent fifth last time out in the Shriners Children's Open a month ago.

As a demonstration of just how wide-open the RSM Classic is, Aberg and Thompson are the only two in the field trading at less than 33/134.00 and, as it's been such a good event for outsiders, I'll have at least a couple of longshots for the Find Me a 100 Winner column later today or tomorrow. But there was one at a double figure I couldn't leave out.

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Improving Eckroat worth following

Having only turned pro three years ago, 25-year-old Oklahoman, Austin Eckroat, is very much a rising a star on the PGA Tour.

He qualified for the Tour when finishing second at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship just two years ago and, after a predictably slow start, he first caught the eye when finishing fifth at the Corales Puntacana Championship and second at the Byron Nelson last year.

He went off the boil after finishing a brilliant 10^th in the US Open in June last year and he had current form figures reading MC-MC-MC-MC-68-23 when finishing eighth on debut here 12 months ago. It's no surprise to see this place suited him given that he came out and won his first PGA Tour title at the Cognizant Classic in March.

Eckroat was a very impressive winner of the World Wide Technology Championship two weeks ago and it wouldn't surprise me if he contended again here after a week off to refresh the batteries.

He looks like a player to keep on the right side of and anything bigger than 40/141.00 looks fair.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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Now read my Australian PGA Championship preview here

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