Australian PGA Championship: Cam Smith worth chancing at a generous 9/1

• Hot putting looks the key to victory

• Repeat winners are commonplace

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Tournament History

The Australian PGA Championship was first staged back in 1929.

The tournament was decided by a match play event for the top 16 finishers in the open element in the early years, but it's been a stroke play tournament since 1964.

The Australian PGA Tour has only featured as a con-sanctioned event on the DP World Tour since 2016.

The event was lost to the Covid pandemic in 2020 and 2021 and there were two editions in 2022, although the first (won by Jediah Morgan in January '22), wasn't co-sanctioned with the DP World Tour.

The Australian PGA Championship is a nomadic event, but it's been staged in Queensland since 2000, and the last three renewals have all been staged at this year's venue - the Royal Queensland Golf Club in Brisbane.

Venue

Royal Queensland Golf Club, Eagle Farm, Brisbane, Queensland

Course Details

7,085 yards, par 71
Scoring average in 2023 - 70.91

Originally designed by Carnegie Clark, the Royal Queensland Golf Club opened in 1920, but the course used this week was designed by Mike Clayton as recently as 2007.

Located on the north bank of the Brisbane River, it's a largely flat course with wide fairways, little rough and an abundance of strategically positioned bunkers which have been described as being 'a significant part of its defence'.

The front nine winds around the grounds in a clockwise fashion and the back nine sits inside the front nine. Water is only in play on four holes.

The three hardest holes last year were all on the back nine (10, 15 and 18) and the front nine averaged a stroke easier than the back.

Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 01:00 in the morning in the UK on Thursday

Last Three Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2022 (Jan) - Jediah Morgan -22 80.079/1
2022 (Nov) - Cameron Smith -14 4.57/2
2023 - Min Woo Lee 8.27/1

What do the stats at Royal Queensland tell us?

We've had three editions here in the last two years, but the stats are sporadic and not very helpful.

No numbers were issued at the first of the three editions, in January 2022, and stats were produced for only some of the players in the last two editions.

There were no stats for the winner in November 2022, Cam Smith, and there were none for the players that finished third, fourth, fifth and sixth at last year's renewal. And what stats we do have don't help much either.

What limited evidence we have suggest that accuracy is marginally more important than distance off the tee, but there's really not much in it.

The four players to fill the places behind Smith ranked fifth, ninth, third and 15^th for Greens In Regulation and the first and second last year, Min Woo Lee and Rikuya Hoshino, ranked 14^th and fourth for GIR.

Lee and Hoshino ranked seventh and first for Scrambling and the four placed players below Smith ranked third, 13^th, eighth and 10^th so getting up-and down has been fairly key but Putting Average has been the most important stat to date.

The four players inside the top five below Smith ranked first, fourth, sixth and eighth for PA and Lee and Hoshino ranked first and 10^th.

Is There an Identikit Winner?

The home contingent has dominated this event and America's Harold Varner, who won at Royal Pines in 2016, is the only winner since England's David Howell in 1998 that didn't come from Down Under. And multiple winners are very common.

Since it was first staged back in 1929, lots of players have won the event at least twice and Aussie legends, Bill Dunk and Kell Nagle, won the event 11 times between 1949 and 1976. Nagle holds the record with six titles.

Greg Norman, Wayne Grady and Scotland's Andrew Coltart, who now works for Sky Sports, all won the event a couple of times before the millennium, and we've seen as many as six men win the event multiple times this century.

Greg Chalmers and Adam Scott have won the Australian PGA Championship twice, Peter Lonard, Peter Senior and Cam Smith have all took the title three times and Robert Allenby won the event for a fourth time in 2009.

Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2022 (Jan) - Jediah Morgan -led by nine 1.111/9
2022 (Nov) - Cameron Smith - led by three 1.364/11
2023 - Min Woo Lee - led by three 1.3130/100

In-Play Tactics

Allenby won his first and second Australian PGA titles here on the old layout in 2000 and 2001 and he was up with the pace throughout.

Having sat sixth after round one in 2000, he was tied for the lead at halfway and four clear after 54 holes and he won wire-to-wire the year after. And up with the pace has been the place to be in the three latest editions too.

Jediah Morgan was six clear at halfway in January 2021 (won by 11!), Smith sat 14^th after round one and second at halfway before easing three clear with a round to go and Lee was always in the van last year.

Having sat second, trailing by a stroke, after the first round, he led by one at halfway and by three through 54 holes, so we need to be concentrating on the frontrunners from early on.

Smith worth chancing at 9/1

The market is struggling to split the last two winners of the event, the three-time winner, Cam Smith, who won his third title here two years ago and the course specialist, Danny Lee, who twice finished fourth here before winning 12 months ago.

Lee arrives in fair form having finished inside the top 30 at the ZOZO Championship, the Abu Dhabi Championship and the DP World Tour Championship on Sunday but it's no better than fair form and he also has the pressure of defending.

The putter hasn't been hot in a while for Lee and given he's an industry-wide best price of 9/110.00 with the Sportsbook, my preference is for Smith, who really should be looking for back-to-back victories Down Under, having finished only second in the New South Wales Open on Sunday.

The 2022 Open champ led that event by two through 54 holes before a sorry 74 on Sunday saw him beaten by three by Lucas Herbert, who had himself led by two at halfway before a disappointing 72 in round three.

Smith hasn't had a great year, with the low point being his opening round of 80 in the Open Championship in July but he finished third in the Queensland PGA Championship prior to last week's second placed finish so he's trending in the right direction, and he's nicely acclimatised back home.

As highlighted above, multiple winners of this event are very common, and a player as classy as Smith shouldn't be as big as 9/110.00 to emulate Robert Allenby and win the title for a fourth time.

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