The Punter's In-Play Blog: Two tied at the top at Sea Island

• Elvis wins the Australian PGA Championship

• Leaders look opposable

• A trio of outsiders added from off the pace

10:40 - November 24, 2024

Elvis Smylie has won the Australian PGA Championship, and I'll take a look at his victory in tomorrow's Debrief but for now I'm concentrating on the RSM Classic, where Vince Whaley and Maverick McNealy are tied at the top with a round to go. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:30.

Maverick McNealy -14 3.55/2
Vince Whaley -14 5.04/1
Mackenzie Hughes -12 8.07/1
Daniel Berger -12 9.89/1
Michael Thorbjornsen -12 13.5
Patrick Fishburn -12 14.013/1
Luke Clanton -11 14.013/1
Lee Hodges -11 26.025/1
Nico Echavarria -10 48.047/1
Michael Kim -10 48.047/1
Stewart Cink -9 250.0249/1
-8 and 400.0399/1 bar

With the wind predicted to lie down today, we're likely to see some low scores in round four and that really should suit the frontrunners, but the two leaders look vulnerable.

It's much easier to make up ground when scoring is tough and three of the last four RSM Classic winners were leading with a round to go but Whaley and McNealy are the fifth pair to co-lead the tournament since it was first staged in 2010 and the previous four pairs produced only one winner.

Chris Kirk won the 2013 edition by a stroke when Briny Baird bogeyed the 72^nd hole but Davis Love and Jim Furyk finished third and fourth in 2012, having been tied for the lead through 54 holes, Andrew Svoboda and Will Mackenzie finished eighth and second ten years ago and Ben Martin and Patrick Rodgers endured a nightmare final round in 2022.

Rodgers shot a level-par 70 to finish 10^th and Martin finished tied for 21^st after a two-over-par 72.

Both Whaley and McNealy are 29 and in search of their first victories on any Tour and both have very little experience of leading with a round to go.

Whaley finished fourth at the Nationwide Childrens Hospital Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2021, having been tied for the lead through 54 holes, and on the two occasions that McNealy has led with a round to go he's been beaten too.

He led the United Leasing Championship on the KF Tour by a stroke in 2018 but finished third, beaten by three, and having been tied at the top after three rounds, he finished second, beaten by one, at the Procore Championship in 2021.

McNealy was also in the mix two weeks ago in Mexico, trailing by two with a round to go, but after a lacklustre final round when scoring was super low, he finished sixth, beaten by seven.

Although there's a gap of two strokes back to the four men tied for third, the front two look opposable.

I'm tempted to lay the two in the outright market at around 5/23.50 and 4/15.00 respectively and both might be worth taking on at odds-on to finish inside the top five.

There's been plenty of money for course specialist, Mackenzie Hughes, this morning and that makes sense.

With a win and two seconds to his name, he clearly loves it here and if the front two do slip up, he's the one most likely to capitalise but it's a tough tournament to call and we may well see another off the pace winner.

As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, we've only had 14 previous renewals but already we've seen winners come from four strokes back, five off the pace (twice), and from seven strokes back with a round to go.

With that in mind, I've thrown a few pounds at the two players tied for ninth and four off the lead - Nico Echavarria and Michael Kim - at 50.049/1 and at a huge price, I've also backed the veteran, Stewart Cink, who sits alone in 11^th and five off the lead.

Cink won the RBC Heritage around the corner from this venue at Hilton Head 20 years ago from way off the pace.

He sat tied for 22^nd and nine off the lead before shooting 64 in round four to get into a playoff with the four-stroke 54-hole leader, Ted Purdy.

11:30 - November 23, 2024

After play was cancelled on Friday, the greens staff at the Royal Queensland Golf Club worked throughout the night to get the course ready for the second round of the Australian PGA Championship and watching the coverage, it was impossible to tell just how much rain had fallen.

Pre-event 9/110.00 fancy, Cam Smith, looked like he'd be heading into tomorrow's third and final round with a clear lead but the first-round leader, Elvis Smylie, birdied three of the last five holes late on to draw alongside the pre-event favourite.

Here's the current state of play with prices to back at 11:15.

Cam Smith -10 2.8415/8
Elvis Smylie -10 6.411/2
Marc Leishman -9 5.24/1
David Micheluzzi -8 12.011/1
Aldrich Potgieter -8 23.022/1
-7 and 38.037/1 bar

Smith is clearly the man to beat but he was two in front with a round to go at the New South Wales Open last week when he shot 74 on Sunday to lose by three.

That's obviously a slight concern but he's converted all three of his 36-hole leads on the LIV Golf Tour, where they only play 54 holes, and all three previous editions of this event at the new layout at Queensland, were won by the third-round leader.

I'm going to stick with Smith, who's looking to win the event for a fourth time, and see what tomorrow brings.

Over on the PGA Tour, they've reached the halfway stage of the RSM Classic and those drawn at the host course, the Seaside Course, on day one have enjoyed a huge advantage.

The wind picked up yesterday and those drawn to play the more exposed Seaside Course caught a poor break.

Michael Thorbjornsen, who shot a one-under-par 69 at Seaside yesterday, is the only player in the top eight to have played the Plantation Course on day one.

As many as 11 of the top 14 were drawn Seaside - Plantation and 48 of the 69 players to make the cut were drawn Seaside - Plantation.

With the par 70 Seaside averaging 70.243 on day one and a brutal 73.213 on Friday, and the par 72 Plantation averaging 71.025 on Thursday and only 70.578 on Friday, those drawn Seaside - Plantation have enjoyed a sizable advantage.

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 11:25.

Patrick Fishburn -11 5.39/2
Maverick McNealy -10 5.49/2
Lee Hodges -10 9.417/2
Luke Clanton -9 8.27/1
Michael Thorbjornsen -9 17.016/1
Nico Echavarria -8 19.018/1
Michael Kim -8 23.022/1
Adrien Dumont De Chassart -8 40.039/1
Mackenzie Hughes -7 22.021/1
Patrick Rodgers -7 32.031/1
Ludvig Aberg -5 24.023/1
-7 and 60.059/1 bar

Ludvig Aberg led by a stroke at halfway last year before shooting back-to-back 61s over the weekend to win by four and he was the seventh winner in eight years to be leading or tied for the lead at halfway, suggesting Patrick Fishburn is a great price at over 4/15.00 but stats can be misleading.

The 2022 winner, Adam Svensson, trailed by seven at halfway in 43^rd place and seven men have made it to a playoff in the last eight years having trailed by between 3 and 12 shots after 36 holes!

With that in mind and having backed two players on the wrong side of the draw yesterday, I should probably sit on my hands for now and see how the third round pans out, but I couldn't resist a small bet on tournament specialist, Mackenzie Hughes, at 24.023/1.

The Canadian sits just four off the lead, having been on the wrong side of the draw, and he's no bigger than 18/119.00 on the High Street.

In addition to winning the tournament in 2016, he finished second in both 2021 and 2023 so he's likely to be there or thereabouts tomorrow afternoon.

09:30 - November 22, 2024

Play was abandoned on day two of the Australian PGA Championship after heavy rain had waterlogged the course overnight and the event has now been reduced to 54 holes.

As a result, the first-round leader, Elvis Smylie, has shortened up fractionally but my pre-event fancy, Cam Smith, is still the only man trading at a single-figure price.

Over at the RSM Classic, pre-event 42.041/1 chance, Maverick McNealy, who's finished sixth and 17^th in his last two starts, is tied at the top with 140.0139/1 chance, Michael Thorbjornsen, on eight-under-par and he's now the 7/24.50 favourite with three rounds to play.

McNealy's eight-under-par 62 was shot at the par 70 Seaside Course, whereas Thorbjornsen began the event at the par 72 Plantation Course, so with McNealy heading to the Plantation Course today, in theory, he should be better placed than Thorbjornsen, who will play at the Seaside Course today.

On day one, the Seaside Course averaged marginally over its par of 70 at 70.24 and the Plantation Course averaged almost a stroke below its par of 72 at 71.03.

Although he's playing at the Plantation today, McNealy, who's yet to win on any Tour, looks very short at 7/24.50 and odds of around even money look short for a top five finish too.

Looking back at the first 14 editions of the tournament, 23 players have led or co-led after round one and two did go on to win - the 2016 champ, Mackenzie Hughes, who won a five-man playoff, and Charles Howell, two years later, who beat Patrick Rodgers in extra time, but only nine of the 23 finished inside the top five places and those stats make the leader look short.

Alone in third, following a seven-under-par 65 around the Plantation Course yesterday, is the in-form local resident, Andrew Novak, who traded at as short as 2.546/4 when he was tied for the lead with nine to play in Bermuda last week.

He's a tempting price at around 9/110.00 but he didn't impress on the back nine last week and that's off-putting.

I'm happy with the start made by pre-event pick, Austin Eckroat, who shot five-under-par at the Plantation Course, but I've still added two more.

Sea Island resident, Harris English, who sits alongside Eckroat, looks a fair price at 20.019/1 and I was also happy to back Chandler Phillips, who was high up on my shortlist before the off.

The 27-year-old, who won on the Korn Ferry Tour last year, has looked capable of stepping up on the PGA Tour and I thought he was too big at 25.024/1 after yesterday's six-under-par around the Plantation Course.

09:50 - November 21, 2024

The first round of the Australian PGA Championship is all done and dusted and pre-event 70.069/1 chance, Elvis Smylie, who was matched at as high 130.0129/1 when the market opened, has shot a six-under-par 65 around the Royal Queensland Golf Club to lead by one.

Smylie now trades at around 16/117.00 as he bids to emulate both Stephen Leaney and Robert Allenby, who won here having led after round one back in 1998 and 2001.

Leaney won the Tournament Players Championship here, despite slipping to seventh place and five back at halfway, and Allenby won his fourth Australian PGA Tour Championship here wire-to-wire. But how much credence we can give those two results is debatable given the course used this week was designed by Mike Clayton as recently as 2007.

This is the fourth event staged around the new circuit and all three previous course winners started nicely.

Jediah Morgan, who won this event in January 2022, sat second, trailing by one. Cam Smith, who won the second edition, held that year in November, sat tied for 14^th and just three off the lead. Last year's winner, Min Woo Lee, sat second, trailing by one after the opening round.

Lee started this year's edition smartly too and when I went to bed he was four-under-par through six holes. He's already been matched as short as 3.65 but, having started on the back nine, and having birdied the second hole to get to -5, he played his last six holes in two-over-par.

By contrast, playing in the same three-ball, both Jason Day and the three-time winner Smith finished their first rounds nicely enough.

Day shot a neat and tidy bogey-free four-under-par. After a tardy start, Smith played the front nine (his second nine) in four-under-par to draw alongside his countryman.

Both men sit tied for sixth and just two off the lead. Having been matched at a high off 20.019/1, Smith is back at the head of the market, trading at 11/26.50.

With the likes of Victor Perez (tied second), Day, Smith, Marc Leishman and Jordan Smith all within two of the lead, and the defending champ, Lee, one of 30 players within three, it's a tricky leaderboard to assess. I'm happy to sit on my hands and see how Cam fares tomorrow.

The RSM Classic is yet to start on the PGA Tour so, although my longshot Down Under, Robin Williams, was disappointing in shooting a one-over-par 72, there's still time to side with my three outsiders for the Find Me a 100 Winner column in Georgia.

Australian PGA pre-event pick:
Cam Smith @ 9/110.00 (Sportsbook)

RSM Classic pre-event pick:
Austin Eckroat @ 42.041/1

In-Play Picks:
Harris English @ 20.019/1
Chandler Phillips @ 25.024/1
Mackenzie Hughes @ 24.023/1
Michael Kim @ 50.049/1
Nico Echavarria @ 50.049/1
Stewart Cink @ 260.0259/1

Find Me a 100 Winner column

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