RBC Heritage: Stick with Straka at 40/1

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and Scrambling the key stats

• Read my Volvo China Open preview here

• Read my Corales Puntacana Championship preview here

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Tournament History

The late great Arnold Palmer won the inaugural staging of the RBC Heritage back in 1969 so this will be the 57^th edition of the tournament.

As usual, the RBC Heritage is the first event after the US Masters in neighbouring Geogia so as per, it's a strong line-up.

The RBC Heritage is the fifth Signature Event of 2025 so it's a limited field event with no cut.

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Venue

Harbour Town Golf Links, Hilton Head, South Carolina

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Course Details

Par 71, 7,213 yards.
Stroke Index in 2024 - 69.35 

Assisted by Jack Nicklaus, Hilton Head was designed by the late great Pete Dye, who also designed Sawgrass, home of the Players Championship, and it's always been the event's venue, so there's plenty of course form to go on. 

The fairways aren't overly narrow, but you do need to find the right spots on them to attack the tiny Bermuda greens that usually run at around 12 on the Stimpmeter.

It's one of the players favourite stop-offs on the PGA Tour and it's very easy on the eye.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 12:00 UK time on Thursday

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2024 - Scottie Scheffler -19 6.86/1
2023 - Matt Fitzpatrick -17 38.037/1 (playoff)
2022 - Jordan Spieth -13 50.049/1 (playoff)
2021 - Stewart Cink -19 120.0119/1
2020 - Webb Simpson 32.031/1
2019 - C.T Pan -12 460.0459/1
2018 - Satoshi Kodaira -12 500.0499/1 (playoff)
2017 - Wesley Bryan -13 200.0199/1

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What Will it Take to Win the RBC Heritage?

 

Last year's winner, Scottie Scheffler, ranked third for Driving Accuracy and historically, accuracy off the tee has been of more importance than distance.

When the 2018 winner, Satoshi Kodaira, ranked fourth for D.A he was the seventh winner in ten years to rank inside the top ten but prior to Scheffler's win 12 months ago, that stat had appeared as irrelevant as Driving Distance.

The five winners before Scheffler ranked 31^st, 57^th, 33^rd, 55^th and 59^th for DA and the two winners before Kodaira - Wesley Bryan and Branden Grace - ranked only 55^th and 57^th. The rough is minimal (only 1 ¼ inches last year) so missed fairways aren't a disaster.

Scheffler ranked as high as tied second for Greens In Regulation last year but as is the case with DA, that stat doesn't appear as important as it once was.

Putting used to be the go-to skillset, with six of the seven winners between 2006 and 2012 having a Putting Average ranking of sixth or better and it's been an important stat again off late. 

Matt Fitzpatrick ranked second for PA two years ago, Stewart Cink had a ranking of seventh in 2021, and the two winners before him ranked third and second but Scheffler ranked 35^th for PA and 34^th for Strokes Gained: Putting and Jordan Spieth putted deplorably when he won in 2022! 

When asked what he was most proud of in terms of his performance his answer was unequivocable.

"Well, I won this golf tournament without a putter!"

And he wasn't wrong. Spieth's putting stats really were incredible. He ended the week ranking 60th for Strokes Gained Putting with a -2.55 strokes gained figure, which was the worst SG putting number by a PGA Tour winner since Sean O'Hair in 2009 at Quail Hollow (-3.29), and he ranked 37th for putts Per round and 40th for Putting Average but he did rank highly for the two most essential stats - Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and Scrambling

Spieth ranked first for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and sixth for Scrambling in 2022 and Scheffler ranked first for those two metrics last year. They're the two key stats to consider.

The last eight winners have ranked first, sixth, seventh, 11^th, seventh, first, third and first for SG: T2G and although the 2019 and 2020 winners only ranked 27^th and 16^th for Scrambling, I'd still consider that the most important traditional stat to ponder.

These greens are smaller than average, and everyone is going to miss plenty of them so getting up-and-down to save par is crucial. 

Fitzpatrick ranked fourth for Scrambling in 2023, the front three in 2021 ranked fourth, second and third and in 14 of the last 16 years, whoever has topped the Scrambling stats for the week has finished inside the top 11. 

In 2016, eight of the top ten scramblers finished tied ninth or better. 

Being a seaside links, Harbour Town is exposed and wind-affected, so great wind exponents do well here year after year.

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Is There an Angle In?

 

It's a bit more open than this track, but form at the Seaside Course, Sea Island, home of the RSM Classic in November, is well worth considering. It's only round the corner so it makes sense that it should correlate nicely, and it does. 

The first three RSM Classic winners all had a top-six finish here on their CVs and although there have only been 15 editions of that event, there are plenty of examples of players playing well at both tournaments. 

It's a very similar exposed, wind-affected, seaside course so it's no surprise that form there stands up well here. 

Other courses to consider are Waialae Country Club, home of the Sony Open in Hawaii, TPC Southwind, which hosts the FedEx St Jude in August, the Grand Reserve Country Club, home of the Puerto Rico Open, and Colonial Country Club, which hosts the Charles Schwab Challenge all correlate nicely. However, arguably the best new correlating course is the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship, home of this week's other PGA Tour event - the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship. 

Although a terrible final round saw him finish tied for 48^th, the 2022 Corales winner, Joel Dahman, was sitting just one off the lead with a round to go here in 2020, the 2023 Corales winner, Matt Wallace, finished 18^th here in 2021, having sat fourth through 54 holes, last year's winner, Billy Horschel has finished fifth and ninth here, and the 2018 edition of the Corales was won by the 2013 Heritage winner, Graeme McDowell. 

And finally, although not a coastal course, and designed by Donald Ross and not Pete Dye, Sedgefield Country Club, host of the Wyndham Championship, also correlates superbly.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

As the old adage goes, there are lies, damn lies and statistics and looking at recent history, three of the last four winners of this event have finished inside the top 12 at Augusta, suggesting a good week in the year's opening major is a plus but despite recent history, the stats this century suggest it isn't.

The remarkable Scottie Scheffler won here after winning the US Masters, but he was the first to double up since Bernhard Langer way back in 1985.

Matt Fitzpatrick won here in 2023 having finished tied for 10^th at Augusta the week before and the 2021 winner, Stewart Cink, had finished 12^th in the US Masters but those three appear to be the exceptions rather than the rule and most winners haven't contended in the year's first major.

The US Masters was shifted to November in 2020 and this event was staged in June but prior to 2020, apart from 2011 and '12, this event has traditionally followed the year's first major since 1983, so I've looked at how the winners here had fared at Augusta on every occasion that this event has followed the US Masters this century below. 

2024 - Scottie Scheffler - Won
2023 - Matt Fitzpatrick - 10^th
2022 - Jordan Spieth MC at Augusta
2021 - Stewart Cink - 12^th
2019 - C.T Pan - Didn't play at the Masters
2018 - Satoshi Kodaira - 28th at Augusta
2017 - Wesley Bryan - Didn't play at the Masters
2016 - Branden Grace - MC at Augusta
2015 - Jim Furyk - MC at Augusta
2014 - Matt Kuchar - 5th at Augusta
2013 - Graeme McDowell - MC at Augusta
2010 - Jim Furyk - MC at Augusta
2009 - Brian Gay - Didn't play at the Masters
2008 - Boo Weekley - 20th at Augusta
2007 - Boo Weekley - Didn't play at the Masters
2006 - Aaron Baddeley - Didn't play at the Masters
2005 - Peter Lonard - MC at Augusta
2004 - Stewart Cink - 17th at Augusta
2003 - Davis Love - 15th at Augusta
2002 - Justin Leonard - 20th at Augusta
2001 - Jose Coceres - MC at Augusta
2000 - Stewart Cink - 28th at Augusta 

In addition to Scheffler, Fitzpatrick and Cink, Matt Kuchar's fifth at Augusta 11 years ago is the result that stands out and every other winner here has either not played at Augusta, missed the cut at Augusta, or finished no better than 15^th. And it's perhaps worth highlighting that all those that have performed well here after a top 20 finish in the US Masters had very strong and usually winning form here anyway. 

A high finish last week could be construed as a bit of a negative and it was his weekend of at Augusta that inspired the 2022 winner, Spieth.

"Last week was really a killer for me. My favourite tournament in the world (the US Masters), not getting to play on the weekend, so I tried to come in and work a little extra hard this week, and game felt in a good place, just needed to give myself a chance and it felt really good to make a putt that mattered on 18 in regulation."

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Course form counts at Harbour Town

Although we've witnessed a few younger winners of late, prior to 2016, 12 of the previous 14 winners were in their 30s and Jim Furyk was 44 when he won here in 2015. Cink was 47 when successful in 2021 so experience often counts for plenty at Harbour Town.

Harbour Town is a tricky track that doesn't suit everyone, and course form stands up well. In its 55-year history, ten men have won the event more than once and Davis Love III has won it five times. 

Fitzpatrick had finished fourth two years before he won but we've also seen a few first-time shock winners of late too. 

Cink was a big price four years ago and C.T Pan was the third consecutive big outsider to take the title in 2019. Pan was also the fourth winner in-a-row winning for the first time on the PGA Tour. 

It will be interesting to see if we get another well-fancied winner this year now that it's a Signature Event but historically, it's been a fair event for longshots.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2024 - Scottie Scheffler - led by one 1.834/5
2023 - Matt Fitzpatrick - led by one 3.613/5
2022 - Jordan Spieth - T9 - trailing by three 22.021/1
2021 - Stewart Cink - led by five 1.51/2
2020 - Webb Simpson - tied for the lead with three others 5.85/1
2019 - C.T Pan - T5 - trailing by two 36.035/1
2018 - Satoshi Kodaira - T12 - trailing by six 440.0439/1
2017 - Wesley Bryan - T6 - trailing by four 30.029/1 

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In-Play Tactics

The last two winners were in front with a round to go, Cink won from the front in 2021, and Webb Simpson was tied at the top in 2020, so four of the last five winners have been leading or tied for the lead but this isn't an easy track to make the running.

The third-round leader in 2019, Dustin Johnson, having traded as short as 1.564/7 during round three, eventually finished tied for 28^th and as you can see by the data above, this is a venue where many a winner comes from way off the pace.

Until 2020, we hadn't seen a 54-hole leader convert since 2012 and the winner had come from outside the final pairing every time since.

Pan was the seventh winner in-a-row to come from at least a couple of strokes adrift in 2019 and although he was quite close to the lead compared to some winners, he was still unfancied and a 36.035/1 shot after three rounds.

Since Carl Pettersson converted from the front in 2012, and Prior to Webb's win in 2020, the winners had trailed by four, four, four, three, four, six and two strokes, and Spieth was three adrift with traffic in front of him three years ago.

In addition to those seven results between 2013 and 2019, Brandt Snedeker beat Luke Donald in a playoff in 2011, having trailed by six after 54 holes, but Cink easily trumps them all.

Back in 2004, when winning the second of his three titles, he came from an incredible nine shots back to win, so if your picks start slowly, don't give up on them and taking on the leaders with a round to go has been a profitable exercise in many a year.

The par five 15^th is the last hole in the woods at Harbour Town and it's a tricky finish after that. The par four 16^th is a tough hole if the fairway is missed, and the exposed par three 17^th trips up many a contender. The fairway is ridiculously generous on 18 but it's a tough second shot, even from the fairway so great rounds can untangle at the end quite easily.

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Market Leaders

The defending champ and world number one, Scottie Scheffler, understandably heads the market.

Having finished runner-up in Houston again three weeks ago, he put up a bold defence at Augusta last week, eventually finishing fourth, beaten by three, despite not having his immaculate A game. He putted nicely enough but his approach play wasn't as strong as usual.

Given he finished 11^th on debut in 2023, Harbour Town is clearly a layout he likes but he came here 12 months ago in search of his fourth win in five starts and he was trading at a slightly bigger price.

He did have the negative of having just won the US Masters but finishing fourth when defending last week will have drained plenty of energy too. I'm happy to leave him out before the off at 5/16.00.

The in-form Collin Morikawa will have been disappointed not to have contended last week (he finished 14^th) and he's highly likely to bounce back here.

With course form figures reading 64-7-26-31-9 and 2025 numbers reading 2-17-17-2-10-14, he has both strong course and current form and is a very obvious candidate but he's far from prolific nowadays and he makes no appeal at less than 12/113.00.

Of the three market leaders, Ludvig Aberg is the one I came closest to backing.

He finished 10^th on debut 12 months ago, a week after finishing second at Augusta on debut, and he played superbly there again last week, eventually finishing only seventh after a poor finish once he knew victory was beyond his grasp. He finished 5-7 at 17 and 18 having traded at as short as 3.55 to win his first major.

Aberg was an extremely impressive winner of the RSM Classic in 2023, he finished second at Pebble Beach last year and won the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines in February, so the 25-year-old clearly enjoys being beside the sea.

With course form figures reading 3-7-3-MC-2-3-3, Patrick Cantlay loves this venue and he's a very fair each-way bet at 17/118.00 on the Sportsbook with six places up for grabs. He's one to consider in the Top 5 Finish and Top 10 Finish markets, but those numbers tell you all you need to know about the 33-year-old Californian.

He comes in slightly under the radar with 2025 form figures reading 15-5-33-5-31-12-33-36, and the fact that he wasn't in contention last week could well be a plus, but he's far from prolific and he hasn't won in nearly three years.

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Stick with Straka

It's now nearly two weeks since I backed Austria's Sepp Straka to win the US Masters at 90.089/1 and, despite his missed cut at Augusta, I still look back on the week and consider that to be one of the best value bets I've placed in a long time.

He shortened up to around 60.059/1 before the off before a desperately disappointing first round of 78 left him far too much to do.

He bounced back brilliantly on Friday. After a run of five birdies in seven holes from the eighth, he looked all set to make the cut before a bogey at 17 and a slip on the tee at 18, that led to a triple-bogey seven, saw him miss out on weekend play.

That could be a huge plus for this week and with course form figures reading 33-59-3-MC-5, he's one I'm happy to chance again.

Straka was the 36- and 54-hole leader at Pebble Beach in February, a week after he'd won the American Express, and he was tied for the lead here at halfway 12 months ago and second behind Scheffler with 18 to play.

Given he's won the Cognizant Classic around the exposed PGA National layout, and that he has form at TPC Southwind, Waialae and Colonial Country Club, it's no surprise to see he likes it here.

I was happy to back him at 44.043/1 in the win market on the Betfair Exchange, as well as taking the 40/141.00 on the Sportsbook with six places on offer.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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