Ras al Khaimah Classic: Ponder Portuguese form ahead of repeat test

Tournament History

The DP World Tour had originally planned to follow last week's inaugural Ras al Khaimah Championship with a return to Doha for the 25th edition of the Qatar Masters but covid complications have resulted in a postponement so the Al Hamra Golf Course will feature for the second week in-a-row, for another brand-new event - the Ras al Khaimah Classic.
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Venue

Al Hamra Golf Course, Ras Al Khaimah, UAE

Course Details

Par 72, 7325 yards
Stroke Average last week 70.67

Designed by Peter Harradine, the Al Hamra Golf Course was new to the DP World Tour last week, but it was used three times on the Challenge Tour between 2016 and 2018.

As well as hosting last week's event, Al Hamra was also the venue for the twice only staged, Ras Al Khaimah Golf Challenge in 2016 and 2017 and it also hosted the Challenge Tour Grand Final in 2018.

Last week's runner-up, Jordan Smith, beat Jose-Filipe Lima by a stroke with a 20-under-par total here in 2016 before Sweden's Jens Dantorp got the better of Poland's Adrian Meronk in extra time 12 months later after the pair had finished on -15 in the second and final edition of the Ras Al Khaimah Golf Challenge.

And at the 2018 edition of the Challenge Tour Grand Final, Adri Arnaus, who's back on the DP World Tour this week after a strong performance in Saudi last week, shot 17-under-par to finish the week a stroke clear of Victor Perez.

Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports, starting at 8:30 on Thursday.

What Will it Take to Win the Ras al Khaimah Championship?

Nicolai Hojgaard overpowered Al Hamra last week. He was able to drive three of the par four greens (the first, the fifth and the 13th) and he could also reach the four par fives in two.

Hojgaard ranked first for Strokes Gained Off the Tee and Strokes Gained Tee to Green and he ranked second for Strokes Gained on Approach but only 43rd for Strokes Gained Putting. He also played the par fives better than anyone else.

The runner-up, Jordan Smith, ranked second, seventh and 11th for those three metrics and brute power won over finesse. The front two ranked only 42nd and 28th for Scrambling.

How important is form from last week?

Since the pandemic first struck, the DP World Tour have made the very logical decision to hold two events at the same venue in consecutive weeks four times previously, so it makes sense to look back at those tournaments to see just how important a strong showing in the first week has been.

I've listed below the top five and ties from all eight events, together with the finishing positions the week before or the week after, starting with the Celtic Classic and the Wales Open - two events staged at Celtic Manor in August 2020.

The figure in brackets is their finishing position the week after at the same venue, or the week before at the same venue. For example, after winning the Celtic Classic, Sam Horsfield finished 44th the following week in the Wales Open and Romain Langasque won the Wales Open despite not playing the week before. He beat Sami Valimaki, who'd finished sixth the week before. DNP = Did Not Play

Celtic Classic (Aug' 2020)
1 Sam Horsfield (44)
2 Thomas Detry (DNP)
T3 Andrew Johnson (37)
T3 Thomas Pieters (15)
T3 Conor Syme (8)

Wales Open (Aug' 2020)
1 Romain Langasque (DNP)
2 Sami Valimaki (6)
T3 David Dixon (DNP)
T3 Matthew Jordan (47)
T5 Laurie Canter (MC)
T5 James Morrison (27)
T5 Sebastian Soderberg (10)

Cyprus Open (Oct' 2020)
1 Callum Shinkwin (4)
2 Kalle Samooja (MC)
T3 Jamie Donaldson (19)
T3 Garrick Higgo (MC)
T3 Robert MacIntyre (1)

Cyprus Showdown (Nov' 2020)
1 Robert MacIntyre (T3)
2 Masahiro Kawamura (34)
3 Jorge Campillo (52)
T4 Thomas Detry (10)
T4 Callum Shinkwin (1)
T4 Johannes Veerman (34)

Kenya Open (March 2021)
1 Justin Harding (14)
2 Kurt Kitayama (MC)
3 Connor Syme (MC)
4 Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez (14)
T5 Jean-Baptiste Gonnet (DNP)
T5 Jascques Kruyswijk (5)

Kenya Savannah Classic (March 2021)
1 Daniel Van Tonder (MC)
2 Jazz Janewattananond (MC)
T3 Calum Hill (8)
T3 Sam Horsfield (8)
T5 David Drysdale (MC)
T5 Jascques Kruyswijk (5)

Tenerife Open (May 2021)
1 Dean Burmester (4)
2 Nicolai Von Dellingshausen (MC)
T3 Adrian Meronk (MC)
T3 Kalle Samooja (9)
5 John Catlin (DNP)

Canary Islands Championship (May 2021)
1 Garrick Higgo (8)
2 Maverick Antcliff (42)
3 Tapio Pulkkanen (72)
T4 Niall Kearney (61)
T4 Andrew Johnson (42)
T4 Nicolai Hojgaard (73)
T4 Dean Burmester (1)
T4 Adri Arnaus (8)

It's a very small sample size so we can't give it too much credence but it's interesting to see that, although they all faded, all four first week winners were matched at a single-figure price the following week.

Sam Horsfield finished down the field at the Celtic Classic after he appeared to lose interest completely in the foul Welsh weather, but he started like a man possessed, birdying three of his first five holes in round one. He was matched at just 6.05/1 on Thursday morning so all four players to win the first event have traded much shorter than their SPs the following week.

Callum Shinkwin traded at a single-figure price when backing up his maiden win in Cyprus with a tied fourth in the Showdown and the other two contended strongly after winning too.

Having led by three with a round to go, Justin Harding was matched at a low of 1.9420/21 before fading badly on Sunday at the Kenya Savannah Classic, one week after winning the Kenya Open, and Dean Burmester was matched at 8.07/1 when he shot a 63 in round two of the Canary Islands Championship to get into the mix at halfway.

As for the four second week winners, one didn't tee it up the week before, one had missed the cut, and two of them built on a decent effort the week before so it's a mixed bag.

Look to Portugal for pointers

I thought the track was reminiscent of another Harradine-designed course - Doha - which up until 2018 had hosted the Qatar Masters so it's perhaps not in the least bit surprising that a venue that correlates brilliantly with Doha - the Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course - appears to correlate with Al Hamra.

Hojgaard and last week's tied third, Matthieu Pavon, finished tied second behind Thomas Pieters in the Portugal Masters in November, Mathew Jordan, who was 13th last week, finished fifth in Portugal and the first and second at the Challenge Tour Grand Final here in 2018, Arnaus and Perez, finished tied for eighth in Portugal.

In-Play Tactics

Up with the pace is usually the place to be in the desert and that's been the case in the last two events here.

Hojgaard trailed by only two strokes after rounds one and two and he was three in front with a round to go and Adri Arnaus won the Challenge Tour Grand Final wire-to-wire in 2018 but the other two events at Al Hamra suggest a fast start isn't imperative.

Jordan Smith sat tied for 25th and four off the lead after round one in 2016 and Jose Filipe Lima, who finished second, had been six back and tied for 53rd after the opening round. And Jens Dantorp came from even further behind, trailing by six after round one and by five at halfway.

We look set for three benign days to start the event but the forecast is for a blustery day on Sunday so we may well witness some drama in round four.

The back nine is significantly harder than the front nine and it's particularly tricky around the turn. The hardest three holes on the course last week were the 12th, 10th and 9th and eight of the hardest nine holes are all encountered after the par five 8th.

Market Leaders

Nicolai Hojgaard understandably heads the market after last week's victory but he's short enough given how tough it is to win back-to-back and that his form figures after his first win, at the Italian Open, read 20-14-MC-MC before his second place in Portugal.

Jordan Smith has played here twice, finishing first and second, so it's no surprise to see him trading at less than 20/1 but he's only won once on the DP World Tour and that was nearly five years ago now.

Thomas Detry contended last week here too but he was disappointing on Sunday and he's still yet to win on the DP World Tour and course winner, Adri Arnaus, needs to lift himself after last week's disappointing defeat in Saudi where he traded at a low of 2.285/4 during round four.

Robert MacIntyre is a tempting price at around 28.027/1 given he played nicely last week and he won in Cyprus after a nice warm up the week before but none of the market leaders have made the portfolio.

Selections

Last week's Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Daniel Van Tonder, gave himself very little chance after a poor opening round and he double-bogeyed the 18th on day two when he looked like he may just get into the argument but he finished very nicely indeed - signing the event off with a bogey-free seven-under-par 65 to finish tied for 13th.

He won in Kenya last year after a missed cut the week before so an improvement this week is a distinct possibility and odds of around 60.059/1 look fair.

Brando Stone has shown a liking for the Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course and if we can forgive his horrendous third round last week, when he shot 76 to fall out of contention, he's a nice price here.

He clearly likes the course and I'm happy to overlook his mishap on Saturday. Stone's one of those players that's only interested in winning so a loss of focus once his chance had seemingly gone when he bogeyed the third is understandable.

I may have one or two for the Find Me a 100 Winner column tomorrow or on Wednesday but for now my only other selection is Dom Pedro Victoria specialist, Andy Sullivan. He didn't play anywhere last week but that didn't stop Romain Langasque in Wales and this place looks perfect for the Englishman.

Selections:
Daniel Van Tonder @ 60.059/1
Brandon Stone @ 70.069/1
Andy Sullivan @ 80.079/1

I'll be back tomorrow with the Waste Management Phoenix Open preview.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter