The Punter's De-Brief: Hojgaard, Harold and Hoge claim the spoils

Pre-event 44.043/1 pick, Nicolai Hojgaard, began the fourth and final round of the Ras al Khaimah Championship with a commanding three-stroke lead and when he produced this bit of magic to eagle the par five third, it looked like a done deal.

Wow! A moment of magic from the leader

Nicolai Højgaard extends his lead to five with a tap in eagle at the third. #RakGolfChamps pic.twitter.com/2KkRZKAtaM

? DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) February 6, 2022

The 20-year-old Dane, who was in search of his second DP World Tour title just ten starts after he secured his first at the Italian Open last year, looked in complete control but I've being doing this far too long to assume an easy ride and my morning was made considerably more relaxing than it might have been thanks to a lay back to secure a decent profit.

I can't really see anything but a win but pre-event 44 pick, Hojgaard, layed back at an average of 1.14 for a comfortable Sunday morning

? Steve Rawlings (@SteveThePunter) February 6, 2022

Winning is never easy and even the most assured veterans can come unstuck so the fact that he parred the next five, double-bogeyed the ninth and drove into the hazard at 12 shouldn't have come as any surprise.

While all that was going on, Jordan Smith, who had won at the track just over five years earlier on the Challenge Tour, birdied three in-a-row from the 12th to get to seven-under-par for the day and to lead by two!

The pre-event 30.029/1 chance, who had been trading at that price again prior to round four, was matched at a low of 1.51/2 but he bogeyed the tricky par three 15th and Hojgaard waltzed home after that.

The bogey at 12, after finding the hazard, galvanised the impressive young Dane and he played his final six holes in five under-par to win by four!

Over at the Saudi International, Harold Varner III, Adri Arnaus and Tommy Fleetwood spent much of the final round fighting out the finish. Fleetwood was matched at a low of 2.285/4 before yet another lame finish (+5 for his last eight holes!) and Arnaus hit a low of 2.285/4 before he played holes 9-16 in five-over in the blustery conditions.

Varner had looked the most likely winner before he double bogeyed the par four 14th and he'd been matched at just 1.330/100 before it looked like Bubba Watson had denied him.

The pre-event 75.074/1 chance, who had been matched at a remarkable 220.0219/1 when the market first opened, hadn't played anywhere since August, but the Saudi winds had blown the rust off and when he finished the event birdie-eagle to lead by two, he was matched for thousands at 1.11/10 and below, hitting a low of 1.071/14.

After a bogey at 16, pre-event 55.054/1 chance, Varner, had trailed by two with two to play but he made a great up-and-down from the greenside bunker on the drivable 17th for birdie before holing this remarkable 90-odd foot on the par five 18th to win by one.

@HV3_Golf was down 2 shots going into the 17th.

He birdied the 17th to enter the 18th down 1.

On the 18th, this was his 3rd shot to Eagle the 18th!

How can you not love this guy?! Also loved seeing @bubbawatson sprinting from the clubhouse to hug him.

on HVIII! pic.twitter.com/EgViooEPFs

? #PackTheJungle (@ECUJungle) February 6, 2022

The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am looked like producing a far more sedate finale. My 50.049/1 in-play pick, Troy Merritt, made a brilliant move from off the pace and he was matched at a low of 3.814/5 after he'd birdied the notoriously tough par five 14th to take up the running but he lost his way after that, scrambling pars at 15 and 16 before double bogeying the 17th and parring the last and it was 27.026/1 pre-event pick, Jordan Spieth, that looked far and away the most likely winner.

The 2017 winner birdied the 12th and 13th holes to assume command and he was matched at a low of just 1.331/3, having hit a high of 400.0399/1 after a slow start to the tournament, but it wasn't to be.

Pre-event 75.074/1 chance, Tom Hoge, who had appeared out of the reckoning after a level-par front nine, finished with a wet sail with birdies at 14, 16 and 17, just as Spieth finished poorly with a bogey at 17 and a disappointing par at 18 to lose by two.

Spieth wasn't the only player to go odds-on and get beat at Pebble. Seamus Power, who had led the event at halfway by five strokes, was matched at a low of 1.814/5 when he looked like eagling his first hole of round three but he missed the chance to go seven clear and floundered after that, eventually finishing tied for ninth!

With a 12th in the event last year when badly out of form, and with recent form figures reading 4-MC-2-MC, Hoge was quite a popular pick with the punters but I was put off by the fact that the 32-year-old was still in search of his first victory.

If you're looking for early clues for this week's Ras al Khaimah Classic, to be staged on the same course as last week's Ras al Khaimah Championship, the first and second ranked first and second for Strokes Gained Off the Tee and first and seventh for Strokes Gained Tee to Green but only 43rd and 11th for Strokes Gained Putting. That surprised me somewhat as I expected putting to be the key to success but Hojgaard bullied Al Hamra with repeatedly long drives and length off the tee here looks a huge plus.

In addition to the Ras al Khaimah Classic on the DP World Tour, we also have the Waste Management Phoenix Open to look forward to on the PGA Tour, where a stellar filed his headed by world number one Jon Rahm I'll be back later today or tomorrow with my previews.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter