The Punter's In-Play Blog: Tight at the top at Pebble

11:30 - February 6, 2022

The runaway five-stroke halfway leader at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Seamus Power, was matched at as short as 1.814/5 at the start of round three when he gave himself a great chance to open up with an eagle at the par five 10th at Monterey, but he missed the putt, settled for a birdie four, and that was as good as it got.

The nerves kicked in after that and the Irishman struggled to a very disappointing three-over-par 74 that saw him slip outside the top-six. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with priced to back at 11:20.

Tom Hoge -15 6.611/2
Andrew Putnam -15 8.415/2
Beau Hossler -15 11.010/1
Patrick Cantlay -14 4.3100/30
Jordan Spieth -14 5.59/2
Joel Dahmen -14 10.519/2
Seamus Power -13 13.012/1
Jason Day -11 40.039/1
Denny McCarthy -11 90.089/1
-10 and 200.0199/1 bar

We've seen winners here come form five, six and even seven strokes adrift with a round to go but the chances of an off-the-pace winner are reduced dramatically when the wind doesn't blow.

With barely a zephyr in the forecast, for the fourth day in-a-row we're going to witness plenty of low scores today and I'd be very surprised if the eventual winner isn't currently leading or within one of the lead.

Power is the only other player within two strokes but it would take some effort for him to bounce back after yesterday and Jason Day and Denny McCarthy, who both trail by four, probably have too much traffic to pass. It's highly likely that at least one of the six players at the top will go low.

Pre-event pick, Jordan Spieth, was the star of the show yesterday and his nine-under-par 63, that saw him move up 30 places, was the round of the day.

Spieth, who's been matched for a few pounds at 400.0399/1, started with a pair of birdies and an eagle at the fifth yesterday but the big moment came on the spectacular par four eighth hole when he decided to play a second shot that he probably shouldn't have done.

There are very few occasions that a player puts his life at risk to play an approach shot to a par four but this wasn't for the fainthearted!

"This is downright terrifying right now."

This shot from Jordan Spieth was quite the situation. pic.twitter.com/sq04R96GXQ

? GOLFonCBS (@GOLFonCBS) February 5, 2022

Spieth's approach finished in the rough at the back of the green, from where he made a quite brilliant up-and-down for par. Momentum was maintained and he birdied the ninth to go out in 31 before finishing with four birdies in the last five to muscle into contention but I doubt he'll ever play a shot like that again...

"It was not smart. I regret doing it. It was the most nerve-racking shot I've ever hit. When I got to the green, I almost had this full-blown anxiety attack."

This the third time Spieth has found himself in the thick of it on Sunday at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He romped to victory five years ago, converting a six-stroke lead with ease, but he let a two-shot lead slip 12 months ago when a lacklustre 70 saw him finish third, beaten by three.

A week earlier, Spieth had finished fourth at the Phoenix Open (next week's event) after he'd shot 61 in round three to be tied for the lead with a round to go and he was also beaten at Charles Schwab Challenge two months later, having led by a stroke with a round to go.

Spieth did successfully convert from the front at the Texas Open in April last year so it's a bit of a mixed bag of late and we do need to bear in mind that he'd spent a few years in the wilderness. That victory in his home state was his first since he won the Open Championship in 2017.

I'm obviously happy to be onboard from the start and his price looks fair this morning but the pre-event favourite, Patrick Cantlay, is his biggest danger.

Cantlay has lurked menacingly all week long and with a round to go he's back at the head of the market.

Cantlay took his time to learn how to win and I'm still far from convinced that he's rock solid and reliable but he's been far better of late. Even so, we saw him trade at odds-on two weeks ago at The American Express before he lost his way and I'm happy to swerve him.

Tom Hoge looks short enough given he's in search of his first PGA Tour title and I'm in no rush to side with Andrew Putnam at around 7/1 either. He won the Barracuda Championship back in 2018 but that's his sole success.

Beau Hossler hasn't yet won on the PGA Tour but he's played some sensational golf over the last two days and he did very wrong when losing a playoff to Ian Poulter at the Houston Open back in 2018.

If forced to pick someone other than Spieth it would be him or last year's Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship winner, Joel Dahmen, at a double-figure price but I'm happy to stick with what I have and cheer on Jordan.

18:35 - February 5, 2022

Pre-event 44.043/1 pick, Nicolai Hojgaard, birdied five of his last six holes in round three of the Ras al Khaimah Championship and he's the man to beat now with a three-stroke lead. Here's the 54 hole leaderboard with prices to back at 18:20.

Nicolai Hojgaard -20 1.564/7
David Law -17 9.08/1
Tapio Pulkkanen -16 16.015/1
Oliver Bekker -15 29.028/1
Robert MacIntyre -14 28.027/1
Jordan Smith -14 30.029/1
Thomas Detry -14 30.029/1
Johannes Veerman-14 30.029/1
-12 and 160.0159/1 bar

The halfway leader, David Law, played quite nicely for two thirds of his third round today and he was matched at a low of 2.68/5 as he continued to keep the field at bay but a pedestrian finish and a poor decision on 18 (going for the green with a wood from too far out) cost him a shot and he might just have ran his race now.

Hojgaard's advantage of three is far from summonable and the strike rate for three-stroke 54-hole leaders on the DP World Tour since 1996 is only 70%. We've seen 132 players lead by three and 92 went on to win.

Although an average of seven out of ten have gone on to win over the last 25 years or so, five of the last eight have failed and one of them was Nicolai's twin brother, Rasmus, who was matched at a low of 1.75/7 before a poor final round saw him slip to tied third at the Cazoo Classic last summer. The man that beat him that day was Scotsman, Calum Hill. Might that be an omen for Law?

We look set for a bit more wind tomorrow which is a plus for the chasers but with a gap of two strokes between the classy four players tied for fifth and six off the lead and the pair on tied ninth and eight back, this looks like an eight-man tussle unless Hojgaard has an absolute howler.

Given Hojgaard's monstrous length is perfect for the track and that he's already converted from the front on the DP World Tour, at last year's Italian Open, it's very hard to see a spectacular collapse ahead but even if he falters, it's hard to pick out just who might catch him.

The four tied for fifth all have the class and the game to go low but the one I thought was slightly over-priced was Tapio Pulkkhanen.

After three rounds, the big-hitting Finn ranks inside the top-ten for Strokes Gained Putting and Tee to Green and number one for Around the Green. If he can find one or two more fairways tomorrow, he could prove to be the biggest threat.

Over at the Saudi International, after another tricky and blustery day, Harold Varner III is still in front with a round to go. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 18:25.

Harold Varner III -12 2.982/1
Adri Arnaus -11 5.14/1
Tommy Fleetwood -10 4.67/2
Cameron Smith -8 11.010/1
Dustin Johnson -7 11.010/1
Wade Ormsby -7 60.059/1
Ryosuke Kinoshita -7 100.099/1
Xander Schauffele -6 25.024/1
Bubba Watson -6 70.069/1
-6 and 100.099/1 bar

Varner has always been a fabulous wind player and the distraction of the weather may well help him to close out the event tomorrow but his only pro win to date came at the Australian PGA Championship back in 2016 and I'm more than happy to swerve him at less than 2/1.

Arnaus is well-known to DP World Tour followers and they're aware just how poorly he's performed in-contention. He came close to breaking his duck at the Open de Espana last year before losing to compatriot, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, in a playoff and like the leader, Arnaus, has only one title to his name to date. Coincidentally, his only win, on the Challenge Tour back in 2018, was in the Ras Al Khaimah Challenge Grand Tour Final at this week's DP Tour venue.

Tommy Fleetwood is another player I wouldn't be in a rush to go to war with. He was poor in round four in Dubai last week (fell from third to 12th) and that's nothing new.

The Englishman has been within three strokes of the lead with a round to go 14 times since he came from two back to win the Abu Dhabi Championship in 2018 and he's been beaten every time. He moved up the leaderboard on only two of those 14 occasions.

Pre-event pick, Dustin Johnson, who has course form figures reading 1-2-1 is a huge danger if the front three flop tomorrow and I'm also happy to add Cameron Smith at a double-figure price. He wasn't at the races today but he's too good a player to write off given how close he is to the leading trio.

I'll be back tomorrow with a look at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am with a round to go.

11:30 - February 5, 2022

Pre-event 36.035/1 chance, Seamus Power, has broken the 36-hole scoring record at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and he now leads by five at the halfway stage. Here's the latest standings with prices to back at 11:20 and courses to be played today.

Seamus Power -16 2.111/10 (MP)
Andrew Putnam -11 18.535/2 (PB)
Tom Hoge -11 22.021/1 (SH)
Adam Svensson -11 48.047/1 (SH)
Patrick Cantlay -10 6.25/1 (PB)
Matthias Schwab -10 34.033/1 (MP)
Austin Smotherman -10 70.069/1 (SH)
Jason Day -9 30.029/1 (SH)
Troy Merritt -9 40.039/1 (MP)
-9 and 70.069/1 bar

As demonstrated below, the hardest course of the week so far has been Spyglass Hill and Power got that one out of the way on Thursday.

R2 scoring → @attproam

-1.700 = Pebble (70.300)
-1.096 = MPCC (69.904)
-0.096 = Spy (71.904)

36-hole averages
-1.465 = Pebble (70.535)
-1.288 = MPCC (69.712)
+0.067 = Spy (72.067) https://t.co/nuh11nnzay

? Rob Bolton (@RobBoltonGolf) February 5, 2022

Pebble played the easiest of the three in benign conditions yesterday and it doesn't look like it will play much harder over the weekend either with very little wind forecasted.

The calm conditions should play into the hands of the leader and at odds-against I'm in no rush to take him on.

Although the tournament is played over three separate courses, the fact that the leader plays one of the two easiest tracks today means it's a worthwhile exercise to look at the past record of five-stroke 36-hole leaders on the PGA Tour.

Since 1996, 23 players have held a five-stroke advantage through two rounds on the PGA Tour and 17 of them (74%) went on to win - although two of the last three (Keith Mitchell at the CJ Cup last year and Sam Burns at the Genesis Invitational) have been beaten.

As highlighted yesterday, I don't have an awful lot of faith in the leader so I'm going to leave the event alone for now but the conditions should certainly help him. He has two rounds to play on the two easiest courses in very easy conditions.

Everything points to a weekend of yet more low scoring so Power's going to be hard to catch unless he flaps badly.

The market understandably considers the pre-event favourite, Patrick Cantlay, the man most likely to catch Power but he's going to have to get his skates on and he makes little appeal at around 5/1.

19:50 - February 4, 2022

There was quite a disparity in scoring between the AM-PM and the PM-AM starters at the Ras al Khaimah Championship over the first two days, with those that began the event on Thursday morning enjoying Friday afternoon's dead-calm conditions.

There was a difference of almost two strokes (1.84) between the two sides of the draw and although the leader, David Law, was drawn PM-AM, the majority of those listed below finished up their second rounds this afternoon. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 19:40.

David Law -14 4.77/2
Nicolai Hojgaard -12 4.03/1
Adrian Otaegui -10 17.016/1
Jordan Smith -9 14.013/1
Thomas Detry -916.015/1
Brandon Stone -9 23.022/1
Oliver Bekker -9 50.049/1
Robert MacIntyre -8 27.026/1
Johannes Veerman -8 30.029/1

I jumped the gun a bit by backing the leader this morning at 4.3100/30 when he led by five. I thought his lead may get reduced a bit I hadn't factored in just how benign the conditions were.

Law had set the new course record with an eight-under-par 64 but by the time we'd reached the halfway stage, Nicolai Hojgaard and Oliver Bekker had almost matched him with a pair of 65s in the afternoon, the 2016 course winner, Jordan Smith, did equal his score and Spain's Adrian Otaegui beat it by a stroke. And that was despite missing a very makable birdie on the par five 18th.

It's always difficult to assess a leaderboard accurately when a pre-event pick is prominent and I try my best not to be biased but I can't really get away from Hojgaard.

The Dane was extremely impressive from tee-to-green today and his length off the tee is a huge asset. He had the length to reach to reach two par four greens today and he can also reach all four par fives in two with the minimum of fuss.

His putting has been OK over the first two days but it's been far from spectacular and at the halfway stage he ranks only 43rd for Putting Average and 80th for Strokes Gained Putting. The chances are high that will improve and he's the man to beat.

The converse argument can be made about Otaegui, who sits in third. He ranks third for PA and first for SGP so his putting is likely to regress from where it's been over the first two days. It's very difficult to putt the lights out for four days straight and the danger to the two frontrunners probably comes form the group of four on nine-under-par.

Smith and Detry are considered by the market more likely to win than Brandon Stone but he's the one I've added to the portfolio.

The 28-year-old South African loves a low scoring test like this and he played better than he scored today. He missed a few putts he'll feel he should have made, and he played the two par threes on the back-nine badly. He three-putted 11 and a poor swing on 15 saw him find a tricky spot in the greenside bunker but he confounded the error with another very poor three-putt.

He'll be cross about the silly errors and he may well respond tomorrow. I thought 23.022/1 was fair given he's much more prolific than either Smith or Detry.

I haven't seen the splits at the Saudi International but the late starters today certainly appeared to suffer and Adri Arnaus is the only AM-PM starter to feature at the top of the leaderboard. Here's the current state of play with prices to back at 19:45.

Harold Varner III -10 5.59/2
Adri Arnaus -10 8.615/2
Cameron Smith -8 5.04/1
Matthew Wolff -8 9.417/2
Tommy Fleetwood -7 10.519/2
Bubba Watson -6 34.033/1
JC Ritchie -6 100.099/1
Ryosuke Kinoshita -6 100.099/1
Xander Schauffele -5 22.021/1
Patrick Reed -5 32.031/1
Selected Others
Dustin Johnson -4 17.016/1
Tyrrell Hatton -4 34.033/1
-5 and 120.0119/1 bar

I didn't get to see much of this event today and I'm happy to leave it alone for now although I was very tempted to play Cameron Smith at in excess of 4/1.

We've only had three previous editions but third and two off the lead is as far as any winner has trailed at this stage and all three winners were in front with a round to go.

The front two look opposable. Neither is anywhere close to prolific and the pre-tournament second-favourite, Smith, looks ideally placed.

10:55 - February 4, 2022

With three tournaments on the go almost simultaneously, it's a hectic week for in-play betting so I'm going to return later once the Saudi International and the Ras al Khaimah Championship have both reached the halfway stage.

I've already made a move at the Ras al Khaimah Championship (see below) and time will tell if it was a wise one or not but I'm still sitting on my hands at the Saudi.

Eight players have led a @DPWorldTour event by five since 1996 and six went on to win. Law leads by five at present with one hole to play of his second round. Gap may well change by the close of play but 3/1 plus looks generous

? Steve Rawlings (@SteveThePunter) February 4, 2022

After a nine-under-par 63 around Pebble Beach, Tom Hoge is the early leader at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am on the PGA Tour but the man in second, Seamus Power, is the one that heads the market after an eight-under-par 64 around the toughest of the three venues - Spyglass Hill. See below for the day one averages across the three tracks.

R1 scoring → @attproam

-1.481 = MPCC (69.519)
-1.231 = Pebble (70.769)
+0.231 = Spy (72.231)

? Rob Bolton (@RobBoltonGolf) February 4, 2022

I was really hoping to get stuck in here after round one but nobody really grabs my attention. As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, a fast start is beneficial, and I'd have liked to have got with one of the frontrunners, but they make little appeal.

Hoge plays the toughest of the three tracks today, Spyglass, and at the age of 32, he's still in search of his first PGA Tour title. His sole success to date was on the Canadian Tour 11 years ago.

Of course, that doesn't mean he can't win one and he was second two starts ago at The American Express but all things considered, at around 7/1, I'm happy to pass. And the same can be said of the players vying for favouritism - Power and the pre-event jolly, Patrick Cantlay.

Power has started brilliantly given he's the only player in the top-14 to have begun the event at Spyglass and he has already won on the PGA Tour. The 34-year-old Irishman got the better of JT Poston in extra time at the Barbasol Championship last July but he was a fortunate winner given Poston was matched at just 1.021/50 before he double-bogeyed the easiest hole on the course (the 15th) on Sunday.

I backed Power before the off two weeks ago at The American Express but as he's so often been before, he was very poor in-contention on Sunday, and I'm more than happy to leave him out at less than 4/1, despite the great start around the toughest track. It's also worth noting that overseas players don't have a great record in the event either.

Cantlay shot a six-under-par 65 around Monterey Peninsula yesterday and he and Andrew Putnam sit tied for fifth, one behind Sweden's Jonas Blixt and American, Austin Smotherman, in tied third on -7. They're one ahead of seven players tied for seventh on -5 and two in front of a huge group tied for 15th on -4 and it's one of those players trailing by five that I like this morning...

Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Vaughn Taylor, on -4, will be looking to kick on around Pebble Beach today and so too will someone on my radar before the off - Troy Merritt. Like Taylor, and Power, Merritt has got the toughest of the three tracks out of the way and I thought 50.049/1 was fair this morning.

Saudi International Pre-Event Selections:
Dustin Johnson @ 9.08/1
Kevin Na @ 48.047/1

In-Play Pick:
Cameron Smith @ 11.521/2

Ras al Khaimah Pre-Event Selections:
Rasmus Hojgaard @ 42.041/1
Nicolai Hojgaard @ 44.043/1

In-Play Picks:
David Law @ 4.3100/30
Brandon Stone @ 23.022/1
Tapio Pulkhanen @ 17.533/2

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Pre-Event Selection:
Jordan Spieth @ 27.026/1

In-Play Pick:
Troy Merritt @ 50.049/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
Back 2u Daniel Van Tonder @ 130.0129/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 2u Lucas Glover @ 110.0109/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back ½ u Vaughn Taylor @ 490.0489/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back ½ u Martin Trainer @ 1000.0999/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter