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Spanish trio in the final three-ball
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Hidalgo leads but Rahm heads the market
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Stats suggest the leader is still fairly priced
07:40 - September 29, 2024
Despite pressure being applied by the three-time tournament winner, Jon Rahm, pre-event 420.0419/1 chance, Angel Hidalgo, birdied three of his last six holes in round three of the Open de Espana yesterday to remain two clear of the field but it's Rahm that heads the market. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 7:30.
Angel Hidalgo -13 3.613/5
Jon Rahm -11 1.9420/21
David Puig -10 8.27/1
Patrick Reed -8 20.019/1
Joe Dean -8 60.059/1
Adri Arnaus -7 130.0129/1
Jens Fahrbring -7 420.0419/1
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia -6 400.0399/1
Tyrrell Hatton -5 200.0199/1
Tommy Fleetwood -5 220.0219/1
-5 and 850.0849/1 bar
There have been 12 DP World Tour events at Club de Campo since 1996 and last year's Open de Espana winner, Matthieu Pavon, is the only one of the 12 tournament victors to win wire-to-wire.
Having led by two after round one, four at halfway and by two this morning, Hidalgo is looking to emulate the Frenchman and he remains fairly priced given how hard it is to make up ground here.
Ricardo Gonzalez won the now defunct Open de Madrid here in 2003 having trailed by six with a round to go but he really is the anomaly.
The last six course winners were all leading with a round to go and other than Gonzalez, the only other winners not to be in front through 54 holes were both only trailing by a stroke.
Gonzalez was helped greatly by a poor final round by the leader, Paul Casey, who had led by four, so this really is a frontrunners track.
With another benign day predicted, scoring is likely to be lower again today and the very obvious danger to the leader is Rahm, who shot a bogey-free six-under-par 65 yesterday to get within two.
Rahm has already been matched at 1.654/6 and it's no surprise to see him trading at odds-on this morning but the leader is going to be tough to pass.
The 22-year-old Spaniard, David Puig, who, like Rahm, plays on the LIV Golf Tour, is the only other player within five strokes of the leader, and he can't be dismissed given he's already won twice on the Asian Tour but I'm going to stick with what I have.
Having backed Rahm before the off, it's tempting to have a small cover bet on the leader given the stats but I'm going to hold off for now and see if Hidalgo gets nervy.
I'm far from convinced he will given how well he's handled leading so far but he'll step on the first tee today with just one round to go and Rahm for company and that's a bigger deal than anything he's experienced previously.
06:50 - September 28, 2024
Those drawn PM-AM have averaged 1.76 strokes better than those that began the Open de Espana on Thursday morning and the leaderboard is largely dominated by Thursday's afternoon starters, with Frenchman, Julien Guerrier, the only man inside the top-seven to have teed off yesterday afternoon. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 6:40.
Angel Hidalgo -10 4.77/2
Joe Dean -6 25.024/1
Jon Rahm -5 3.39/4
Patrick Reed -5 10.09/1
Julien Guerrier -5 25.024/1
Sam Bairstow -5 32.031/1
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia -5 44.043/1
Tommy Fleetwood -4 10.09/1
David Puig -4 27.026/1
-4 and 65.064/1 bar
Having played in the same three-ball over the first two days, Angel Hidalgo and Joe Dean will be playing alongside each other again today but in the final three ball with Spain's Alfredo Garcia-Heredia and a lot will depend on how Hidalgo fares today given he leads by four.
Including the last four editions of this event, there have been 12 previous DP World Tour events at Club de Campo since 1996 and two of the 12 course winners came from some way off the pace.
Steen Tinning won the 2002 edition of the now defunct Open de Madrid having trailed by six strokes at halfway and Ricardo Gonzalez won the 2003 edition having trailed by 11 after 36 holes, but the other ten course winners were all inside the top eight places and within three strokes of the lead.
Last year's winner of this event, Matthieu Pavon, who led by a stroke at this stage, was the fifth of the 12 course winners to be leading or tied for the lead at halfway and with the weather forecast predicting a largely benign weekend, scanning too far down the leaderboard at this stage may prove a futile exercise.
This is not a tough track with the absence of wind and low scores are expected, which means it will be very hard to make up lots of ground.
When conditions are tough and scoring isn't low, there's always one or two players that go against the head and score well despite the conditions but when the scorings good, and the majority of the field are scoring well, someone has to do something ridiculously special to make up ground from off the pace so given the forecast, we need to be concentrating on the frontrunners.
An argument for backing the leader can certainly be made. Since 1996, we've seen only 38 players lead a DP World Tour event by four strokes at halfway and 21 of them went on to win.
That's a strike rate of 55% so it's impossible to say he's too short at bigger than 7/2.
The reason for his big price is his inexperience and of course, the presence on the leaderboard of the likes of Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood and Patrick Reed.
Rahm said after his second round that he was disappointed not to have taken advantage of the benign early conditions yesterday and that his game was a couple of levels below what he'd liked it to have been but he's impossible to ignore going into the weekend and I'm happy to continue to stick with him and see where we are tomorrow.
20:35 - September 26, 2024
In tricky, blustery conditions, pre-event 420.0419/1 chance, Angel Hidalgo, reached eight-under-par through 15 holes of his opening round at the Open De Espana this afternoon.
The 26-year-old Spaniard was matched at just 7.06/1 with three holes to play but he dropped shots on 16 and 17 before making a par at the last after hitting a monstrously long drive to the front of the green, so it was a disappointing finish.
He's drifted back out to 16/117.00 after his tardy finish and it's not a price I'm in a hurry to take.
Last year's victor, Matthieu Pavon, won wire-to -wire but there have been 12 events at Club de Cambo since 1996 and he's the only first round leader or co-leader to win.
Austrian Ryder Cupper, Sepp Straka, is two shots back in a tie for second alongside Sam Bairstow and Julien Guerrier but the most ominous names on the leaderboard are Jon Rahm, who sits tied for fifth and three back, and Tommy Fleetwood, who's tied for eighth and four behind Hidalgo.
Having shortened up from around 4.84/1 to 4.3100/30 before the off, Rahm now trades at around 2.89/5 and that doesn't look too short given the weather forecast.
As many as five of the top seven after round one began the tournament this afternoon and the PM starters averaged 0.71 of a stroke less than the morning wave. And they may well get the better of it again tomorrow...
After a largely consistently blustery day today, the weather looks like it's going to be much kinder for the rest of the week, but the wind is predicted to pick up a bit tomorrow afternoon.
That's not good news for Fleetwood or Guerrier, who are the two players within four of Hidalgo's early lead that have been drawn AM-PM, and given how benign the conditions are forecasted to be in the morning, they may find themselves with plenty to do by the time they tee off.
Having backed Rahm before the off, I'm happy to sit on my hands for now and see what tomorrow brings but Straka at 9.89/1 and Bairstow at over 25.024/1 look fairly priced and it wouldn't be a surprise to see the in-form Englishman, Matt Wallace, who trails by five in a tie for 12th, make a big move in the morning.
It also wouldn't be a shock if Rahm struggles tomorrow. He withdrew form the LIV event last week with flu-like symptoms and he and his wife have just welcomed their third child and first daughter into the world.
He's lost focus from decent positions here before, shooting 72 in round two last year to fall from 17th to 45th and 72 in round three in 2021 to fall from second to ninth, so he's no certainty to kick on tomorrow.
Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Grant Forrest, is alongside Wallace and my other pick, Daniel Hillier is tied for 29th after a level par 71, but both were drawn AM-PM so may have their work cut out to figure.
Looking back at previous events at Club de Campo, as many as five of the 12 winners here since 1996 have led or been tied for the lead at halfway and 10 of the 12 were within three of the lead at the midway point so things will look much clearer after round two.
Pre-event Picks:
Jon Rahm @ 4.77/2
Ewen Ferguson @ 70.069/1