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Two picks have course form in the bank
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Forrest arrives in form and has shown he likes venue
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Hillier looks set to come good in the autumn
Jon Rahm has won three of the last five editions of the Open de Espana and the last two victories were at this week's venue - Club de Campo Villa de Madrid.
As highlighted in the preview, he's a fair price to win again at anything over 3/14.00.
When Rahm hasn't won this tournament, however, an outsider has taken the title in every edition since home hero Miguel Angel Jimenez triumphed 10 years ago.
James Morrison was an almost unconsidered 500.0499/1 chance in 2015 but the other three longshots to win in the last eight years were priced at between 110.0109/1 and 140.0139/1. I've plumped for a pair of 130.0129/1 chances, starting with Grant Forrest, who was a column pick last week at Wentworth.
Following his fast finishing fifth place finish in the Irish Open two weeks ago, Grant Forrest picked up from where he left off last week when he pitched up in Surrey for the BMW PGA Championship.
The 31-year-old Scotsman played his first eight holes at Wentworth in six-under-par, and he was matched at just 17.5 in-running.
A couple of bogeys on the back nine cancelled out a pair of birdies at 12 and 15 and if he hadn't made a mess of the final hole, where he recorded a double-bogey seven after finding the water with his third shot, he may well have met the first lay back target.
He never really contended after the hiccup on 18 on Thursday but he broke par on all four days to finish tied for 30th so he arrives in Madrid in reasonable form. I'm happy to chance him once more at a venue he's already shown he likes.
As highlighted in the preview, course form has held up extremely well at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid so the fact that Forrest was third here in 2021 should bode well.
Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 & 12 Us @ 2.01/1
Last year's British Masters winner, Daniel Hillier, is another longshot who arrives in Madrid in fair form if his weekend performance at Wentworth is anything to go by.
The Kiwi shot a bogey-free 67 on Saturday and a four-under-par 68 on Sunday, despite recording a double-bogey five on the par three fifth.
That weekend performance saw him climb from the cut line on Friday night to tied 18th and Aaron Rai, who finished tied for fourth after a bogey at the 72nd hole, was the only man to rank ahead of Hillier for Greens In Regulation, so the gifted 26-year-old's iron play is on point.
Hillier is playing here for a second time, having finished tied for ninth after a slow start on debut last year. He's already a winner in Spain having won the Challenge Costa Brava on the Challenge Tour in October three years ago.
It's been a slow year so far for Hillier but he won his second Challenge Tour event almost exactly two years ago and, after last week's weekend exploits, it looks like he's finding some autumnal form again this year.
Back Daniel Hillier (2Us)
Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 & 12 Us @ 2.01/1
Now read my Open de Espana preview here