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Two tied at the top in Mauritius
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Olesen the value with 18 to play
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Early start to round four
19:20 - December 21, 2024
I liked the look of Matt Cooper's 70/171.00 each-way fancy, Hamish Brown, at the halfway stage of the Mauritius Open but back-to-back double bogeys on the front nine appear to have derailed his title challenge and with a round to go, Eddie Pepperell, who led after rounds one and two, is now tied at the top with pre-event 300.0299/1 shot, Dylan Naidoo.
Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 19:15.
Eddie Pepperell -11 3.5551/20
Dylan Naidoo -11 4.47/2
Jacob Skov Olesen -10 5.59/2
Jovan Rebula -9 20.019/1
Jayden Schaver -8 11.010/1
Corey Shan -8 25.024/1
-7 and 40.039/1 bar
Eddie Pepperell has given himself a brilliant opportunity to win his third DP World Tour title to regain his playing privileges and he's the man to beat with a round to go.
The 33-year-old hasn't led through 54 holes since he shot 73 in the fourth round of the British Masters in 2021 to finish 11th but he won both his titles from the front in 2018.
He was tied for the lead through three rounds at the Qatar Masters and he was three clear after 54 holes at the British Masters.
He's vastly more experienced than any of his nearest rivals and the popular Englishman deserves to be at the head of the market.
Naidoo has one victory on the Sunshine Tour, but that win could give us a clue as to how he'll handle the nerves tomorrow.
Having led the 54-hole SunBet Challenge - Sun Sibaya by a stroke after round one two years ago, he came from seventh place and two back to win having shot 74 on day two when leading and trailing by just a stroke in solo third, Jacob Skov Olesen looks a far better proposition at more than a point bigger than Naidoo.
As highlighted yesterday, Olesen displayed a superb bit of skill at the par five 18th hole to sign off with a birdie four and he made another one there today but in less impressive fashion.
Having backed him yesterday, I'm happy to have Olesen onside and I've also added a tiny bet on Clement Sordet, who has put himself on the fringes of contention after a poor first round.
The Frenchman sat tied for 80th after shooting 74 in round one and he was still tied for 49th at halfway but a 65 on Moving Day has seen him move up into a tie for seventh and he looks a fair price at anything over 40.039/1.
As highlighted in the preview, the French have a great record in Mauritius and if there's to be an off the pace victor, the five-time Challenge Tour winner could be the one.
If you're planning to watch the final round and you're in the UK, make sure you set your alarm.
The leaders tee-off as early as 5:45 tomorrow and the live action starts on Sky at 6:00.
16:40 - December 20, 2024
Eddie Pepperell backed up yesterday's excellent 66 with a very respectable 70 on day two of the Mauritius Open and he's tied for the lead at halfway with Matt Cooper's 70/171.00 each-way fancy, Hamish Brown, who's fired a pair of 68s, despite not putting brilliantly. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 16:30.
Hamish Brown -8 6.25/1
Eddie Pepperell -8 7.87/1
Christo Lamprecht -7 7.413/2
Jacob Skov Olesen -7 12.011/1
Louis De Jager -6 16.015/1
Andreas Halvorsen -6 25.024/1
John Parry -5 14.013/1
-5 and 24.023/1 bar
Having sided with Matt's pre-event fancy, Hamish Brown, yesterday, I'm more than happy to see him tied for the lead at halfway and there could be more to come from the Dane over the weekend if the putter warms up.
At the halfway stage, the Danish born son of Marcus Brown, the professional at Aalborg Golf Club in the north of Denmark, but originally from Blairgowrie, ranks third for Greens In Regulation but only 26th for Putting Average and 19th for Strokes Gained: Putting.
If he can continue to find the greens with such frequency but hole a few more putts, he's going to take some beating.
Of the leading quartet, another Dane, Jacob Skov Olesen, impressed today and his up-and-down at the 18th for birdie was one of the best bits of skill I've seen in a while.
Olesen, who won the Amateur Championship in testing conditions at Ballyliffin six months ago, has only just turned pro but he looks the real deal. At 11/112.00, he may represent a bit of value.
I've had a small wager on him at 12.523/2 but I can see the leaderboard looking very different after round three.
The forecast suggests plenty of wind over the weekend and that could lead to a volatile leaderboard.
If the wind picks up in the afternoon, the leaders may struggle to match the early scores and there's scope for one or two players to make a big move from off the pace.
It may make sense to side with someone in-running who makes a big move in the morning so, other than my tiny bet on Olesen, I'm happy to sit on my hands for now and see what tomorrow brings.
16:40 - December 19, 2024
There was a differential in the scoring of only 0.38 of a stroke between the two sides of the draw on day one of the Mauritius Open, with the morning wave averaging 73.38 compared to the 73.76 averaged by the PM wave, but it's not quite as simple as that.
The wind blew really hard in the early afternoon, with Matt Cooper, who's in attendance this week, describing the wind as "seriously strong at times" and he went on to say.
"I'm not sure I've seen so many players on a course hitting from, or looking for balls, so far away from fairways."
The pre-event favourite, Antoine Rozner, who was one of the afternoon starters, began his opening round nicely enough, parring the first and birdying the tough second but he looked extremely uncomfortable on the third green, backing off a short birdie putt before eventually missing it in the most unconvincing fashion and it was no surprise to see him play the next seven holes in four-over-par in the worst of the weather.
The breeze did die down fractionally as the afternoon wore on and after a string of seven straight pars, the Frenchman birdied the last to post a two-over-par 74 but trailing the early leader, Eddie Pepperell, by eight, he's got his work cut out of he's too figure over the weekend.
Pepperell was also drawn on the wrong side of the draw, but he finished his round in fine style, birdying four of his last five holes, including this brilliant chip in at 16.
Trading at 10.09/1, Pepperell is the new favourite and given he's won three of the seven events in which he's led after round one (twice on the DP World Tour and once on the Challenge Tour), that price looks fair.
Those victories were a long time ago now though and Pepperell needs to win to regain his playing privileges on the DP World Tour.
There's a chance the pressure might get to the 33-year-old and there's a couple of youngsters that I prefer after round one.
Matt's each-way fancy, Hamish Brown, looks a bit big at 25.024/1 given the two time Challenge Tour winner is just two off the lead and I was happy to take a very small chance on the young American, Davis Bryant, who sits on -3.
Like his compatriot, Ryggs Johnson, the 24-year-old gained his card via the qualifying School in Spain last month and he may well be inspired by Johnson's victory at the Australian Open three weeks ago.
Pre-Event Picks:
Antoine Rozner @ 10.09/1
Daniel Brown @ 65.064/1
Find Me a 100 Winner Picks:
David Ravetto @ 100.099/1
Deon Germishuys @ 220.0219/1
In-Play Picks:
Hamish Brown @ 25.024/1
Davis Bryant @ 55.054/1
Jacob Skov Olesen @ 12.523/2
Clement Sordet @ 44.043/1