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Scrambling and putting the keys to victory
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Look to Belgium for clues
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Kenya Open Tournament History
The Kenya Open has been in existence since 1967 and it was won by some big names in the early days with the likes of Seve Ballesteros and Ian Woosnam both taking the title.
It was a mainstay on the Challenge Tour from 1991, but it switched to become a DP World Tour event for the very first time seven years ago, although the 2020 edition was cancelled due to the pandemic.
After two editions at Karen Golf Course in Nairobi, the tournament remained in the capital, moving north to the Muthaiga Golf Club in 2022, but after four consecutive years at Muthaiga, the event returns to Karen this year.
Venue
Karen Golf course, Nairobi, Kenya
Course Details
Par 70 - 7,056
Stroke average in 2021 - 69.76
Located just 12 miles south of the capital, Nairobi, Karen Golf Course, which was designed by Remy Martin in 1937, is named after Danish pioneer, Karen Blixen, who's book Out of Africa, was made into a film in 1985.
The course is largely situated on Blixen's land and the shade trees from her coffee plantation still dominate parts of the golf course, 90 years after they were planted.
In addition to this event, Karen was also used for the once only staged, Kenya Savannah Classic, one week after this event was last staged here in 2021.
It was also the venue for Karen Masters on the Sunshine Tour in 2018 and 2019, and it was the venue for the Kenya Open when it was played on the HotelPlanner Tour in 1968, 2004-08, and 2013-16.
At just a shade over 7,000 yards, Karen certainly isn't long by modern standards and the fact that it's at altitude shortens it even further.
The Kikuyu fairways are quite flat and narrower than average and the rough - a mixture of Kikuyu, buffalo and star grass - was almost non-existent back in 2021.
Water is in play on eight holes and the greens are small and undulating, and much quicker than they used to be.
Prior to a David Jones redesign in 2015, the small Bermuda greens would be set at less than 10 on the stimpmeter but they've now been changed to Bentgrass and they ran a bit faster the last time the course was used in 2021.
Weather Forecast
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 10:00 on Thursday
Last six Winners with Pre-event Prices
2025 - Jacques Kruyswijk -18 85.084/1
2024 - Darius van Driel -14 65.064/1
2023 - Jorge Campillo -18 50.049/1
2022 - Ashun Wu -16 80.079/1
2021 - Justin Harding -21 60.059/1 (Karen)
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Guido Migliozzi -16 150.0149/1 (Karen)
What Will it Take to Win the Kenya Open?
We don't have any stats for the HotelPlanner Tour events here, but we do have partial stats for the two Sunshine Tour events (some DD missing), as well as figures for the 2019 and 2021 renewals of this event and for the 2021 Kenya Savannah Classic, so here's the top five and ties with traditional stats.
2018 Karen Masters
Michael Palmer -18 DA 21 DD N/A GIR 1 SC 14 PA 18
Merrick Bremner -16 DA 51 DD 1 GIR 20 SC 17 PA 3
Peter Moolman -15 DA 5 DD 51 GIR 12 SC 7 PA 10
Tyrone Ryan -15 DA 24 DD 24 GIR 2 SC 24 PA 34
Martin Rohwer -13 DA 38 DD N/A GIR 25 SC 4 PA 31
Daniel van Tonder -13 DA 35 DD 32 GIR 48 SC 3 PA 5
2019 Karen Masters
Toto Thimba -26 DA 12 DD 12 GIR 8 SC 3 PA 1
Stephen Ferreira -23 DA 49 DD 17 GIR 4 SC 8 PA 2
Keith Horne -17 DA 42 DD 25 GIR 9 SC 17 PA 10
J.C Ritchie -16 DA 40 DD 23 GIR 9 SC 1 PA 21
Garrick Higgo -14 DA 42 DD 9 GIR 31 SC 6 PA 20
2019 Kenya Open
Guido Migliozzi -16 DA 33 DD 30 GIR 5 SC 11 PA 17
Adri Arnaus -15 DA 11 DD 39 GIR 3 SC 24 PA 39
Louis De Jager -15 DA 28 DD 14 GIR 13 SC 8 PA 12
Justin Harding -15 DA 16 DD 25 GIR 46 SC 1 PA 7
Gaganjeet Bhullar -14 DA 41 DD 44 GIR 60 SC 4 PA 3
2021 Kenya Open
Justin Harding -21 DA 30 DD 44 GIR 23 SC 8 PA 10
Kurt Kitayama -19 DA 74 DD 6 GIR 7 SC 16 PA 9
Connor Syme -17 DA 14 DD 62 GIR 1 SC 77 PA 16
Sebastian Garcia -16 DA 77 DD 58 GIR 73 SC 7 PA 4
Jean-Baptiste Gonnet -15 DA 8 DD 77 GIR 38 SC 4 PA 6
Jacques Kruyswijk-15 DA 51 DD 4 GIR 8 SC 76 PA 12
Romain Langasque -15 DA 48 DD 25 GIR 13 SC 1 PA 32
2021 Kenya Savannah Classic
Daniel van Tonder -21 DA 62 DD10 GIR 11 SC 13 PA 14
Jazz Janewattananond -21 DA 50 DD 29 GIR 19 SC 25 PA 18
Calum Hill -20 DA 10 DD 39 GIR 22 SC 22 PA 5
Sam Horsfield -20 DA 72 DD 48 GIR 49 SC 5 PA 1
Jacques Kruyswijk-18 DA 62 DD 34 GIR 52 SC 12 PA 3
David Drysdale -18 DA 5 DD 64 GIR 1 SC 29 PA 30
Stats Key
DA = Driving Accuracy
DD = Driving Distance
GIR = Greens In Regulation
SC = Scrambling
PA = Putting Average
Given the venue is tree-lined, it would be logical to head straight for the Driving Accuracy stats, but the numbers above would suggest that would be a waste of time.
There were the odd bad lies in the rough five years ago but if you avoided the trees, missing fairways didn't seem to have too much of a negative effect.
As you'd expect on a short course at altitude, Driving Distance has been an irrelevance and the stats to concentrate on are Scrambling and Putting Average.
Is There an Angle In?
Jacques Kruyswijk defends the title he won at Muthaiga and his two fifth place finishes in 2021 suggest he'll have a chance, but he's far from the only South African to fare well here.
The course looks typically South African and with its Kikuyu fairways and small undulating greens, the South Africans must feel like there at home.
It's old form now but a number of players that have played well here have also performed admirably at Valderrama.
Fanling, which used to host the Hong Kong Open on the DP World Tour, and the Delhi Golf Club in India which hosted the DP World India Championship in October last year are both short, fiddly, tree-lined venues and so too is Rinkven International in Belgium which hosts the Soudal Open each year.
Migliozzi has won at both venues and a number of players have performed nicely at both tracks but arguably the best guid could be the event's other venue, Muthaiga, which is a very similar layout.
Course Winner's Position and Price Pre-Round Four
2013 - Jordi Garcia Pinto - tied for the lead
2014 - Jake Roos - tied for the lead
2015 - Haydn Porteous - second, trailing by one
2016 - Sebastian Soderberg - led by three
2018 - Michael Palmer - second, trailing by one
2019 - Toto Thimba - second, trailing by one
2019 - Guido Migliozzi - tied for the lead
2021 - Justin Harding - led by two
2021 - Daniel van Tonder - second, trailing by three
In-Play Tactics
Looking at the 14 previous events here this century, it really doesn't look like you can come from too far off the pace here.
Iain Pyman trailed by six after the opening round here when he won the Kenya Open in 2008, as did Toto Thima in the 2019 Karen Masters, and Michael Palmer trailed by five after the first round of that event in 2018, but the other 11 course winners were all within three strokes of the lead after the opening round.
The 2018 Karen Masters winner, Michael Palmer, sat fifth at halfway, three off the pace, Harding sat tied for sixth and two back in 2021 and Migliozzi was four back after 36 holes in 2019, but the other 11 winners here have sat first or second at the midway point.
Having won the week before, the 54-hole three stroke leader at the Kenya Savannah Classic five years ago, Justin Harding, ran out of steam on Sunday, shooting 73 to finish tied 14th.
Once Harding had fallen away, van Tonder got the better of Jazz Janewattananond in a playoff after the pair had begun round four tied for second and Argentina's Daniel Vancsik also won form three adrift in 2005.
The Argentine shot 75 in round three to go from three clear to three back between rounds two and three, but he bounced back to win by three with a 63 in round four.
None of the other 12 course winners this century have been trailing by more than a stroke or been outside the first two places with a round to go.
Selections
I was very tempted to back the in-form Scotsman, Calum Hill, but he's short enough for my liking after watching him implode in Bahrain last month so I'm kicking the event off with two fancies from the front of the market - South Africa's Thriston Lawrence and another Scot, Ewen Ferguson.
Lawrence was disappointing last time out, missing the cut in the Dubai Desert Classic, but he's impossible to ignore here in what's a fairly weak renewal.
He has ordinary Karen form figures reading 47-6-MC but the prolific 29-year-old, who's already won five times on the DP World Tour, is made for the venue.
His first title came at altitude in his homeland at the Joburg Open around the tree-lined Randpark in 2021, he's twice won the European Masters at another track at altitude, framed by trees - Crans-sur-Sierre in Switzerland - and he's also won the BMW International at yet another tree-lined venue - Golfclub München Eichenried.
He's also finished fourth in the Soudal Open at the aforementioned Rinkven last year, as well as second at Muthaiga in this event in 2022 and he lost a playoff in the BMW PGA at Wentworth (yet another tree-lined track) in 2024.
Back Thriston Lawrence
Ewen Ferguson won the BMW International in 2024, 12 months after Lawrence, and he led this event by four strokes with a round to go at Muthaiga when a DP World Tour rookie back in 2022 (finished eighth after a 76 on Sunday). He also traded at 1.041/25 to win the Soudal Open at Rinkven back in May last year before he bogeyed the last to fall into the playoff won by Kristoffer Reitan, so there's every reason to think that this place looks ideal.
Ferguson finished only 24th in the Qatar Masters last time out, an event he won in 2022, but he'd sat fifth at halfway so he could just be coming into form at the right time.
He's played here three times previously, missing the cut in back-to-back weeks in 2021 after finishing 31st in this event in 2019 but he was woefully out of form in the early part of 2021 and I'm more than happy to ignore those two poor performances.
Back Ewen Ferguson