Amgen Irish Open 2025: Steve Rawlings is keeping faith with Keita at 59/1

• Greens In regulation the key stat at the K Club

• Former winners command respect

• Rory looking to make it third time lucky 

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What happened last week? Lawrence doubles up after slow start

Pre-event 70.069/1 chance, Thriston Lawrence, who had won the 2022 edition of the Omega European Masters, began the final round at Crans leading by one and trading at 3.3512/5 but he looked in big trouble after bogeys at the first three holes in round four.

The South African drifted all the way out to 10.519/2 but after a pair of nerve settling pars at four and five, he turned the whole day on its head with this incredible tee shot at the par four sixth that led to an eagle two.

Thriston Lawrence has just driven the 332 yard par four 6th to 18ft!! #OEM2025 pic.twitter.com/jLqWoz5JHi

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) August 31, 2025

The defending champion, Matt Wallace, who had been beaten by Lawrence in extra-time three years earlier, touched odds-on briefly, hitting a low of 1.9520/21, and the two-time Crans winner, Matt Fitzpatrick, was matched at as low as 2.56/4 in-running. But birdies at seven, nine, 10, 12 and 14 followed the eagle two at six for Lawrence and he never looked like losing after that.

My two longshot in-play picks, Sami Valimaki (backed on Friday at 50.049/1) and Rasmus Hojgaard, who was chanced on Sunday morning at 60.059/1, both finished alongside Wallace in a tie for second, two adrift of Lawrence.

Irish Open Tournament History

The Irish Open has had a bit of a chequered history. There have been spells when the event wasn't played at all and there were even a few years in the 1970s when it was known as the Carroll's International, but it's been an ever-present on the DP World Tour since 1974.

It's a nomadic event and this year we're returning to the K Club for the third time for the 70^th edition.

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Venue

The Palmer North Course, the K Club, County Kildare, Ireland.

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Course Details

Par 72, 7441 yards
Stroke Average in 2023 - 71.45

Designed in 1991, the Palmer North Course, also known as the Palmer Ryder Cup Course, is a parkland layout with water in play on 15 holes. The fairways are poa annua/ryegrass and the greens are poa annua.

In addition to this event in 2016 and 2023, the course also hosted the Ryder Cup in 2006 and prior to that it was the venue for the European Open between 1995 and 2003, and then again in 2005.

The course changed somewhat in the ten years between the Ryder Cup and the 2016 edition of this event, and this is what the greens superintendent, Gerry Byrne, told the Irish Independent before the off in 2016.

"There is 10 years of additional growth on trees which were planted in the mid-1990s. They're now fully mature and will determine the degree of difficulty for shots hit off-line."

After another nine years, the course has matured further but the trees certainly didn't hinder the field in 2023 given the winner, Vincent Norrman, ranked 50^th for Driving Accuracy and only two of the top 11 on the final leaderboard ranked inside the top 10 for DA. 

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 13:00 on Thursday and 8:00 on Friday, so we can probably assume Rory McIlroy is going to be drawn PM-AM.

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Last 10 Winners with Pre-event Prices

2024 - Rasmus Hojgaard -9 55.054/1
2023 - Vincent Norrman -14 60.059/1 (K Club)
2022 - Adrian Meronk -20 40.039/1
2021 - Lucas Herbert -19 55.054/1
2020 - John Catlin -10 65.064/1
2019 - Jon Rahm -16 10.09/1
2018 - Russell Knox -14 (playoff) 28.027/1
2017 - Jon Rahm -24 17.533/2
2016 - Rory McIlroy -12 5.49/2 (K Club)
2015 - Soren Kjeldsen -2 (playoff) 340.0339/1 

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What Will it Take to Win the Irish Open?

Although Norrman only ranked 14^th for Greens In Regulation two years ago, Shane Lowry, who ranked 26^th, was the only player in the top six not to rank inside the top 20 for GIR and Norrman ranked as highly as fifth for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.

The last two editions of the European Open held here were won by Brits that topped the Greens in Regulation stats, and Rory McIlroy ranked number one when winning this event here nine years ago, so accurate iron play looks an important skillset.

Here's a list of the last seven winners at the course with their rankings in all the main stats.

2016 Vincent Norrman -14 (DD: 14, DA: 50, GIR: 14, PPR 40)
2016 Rory McIlroy -14 (DD: 9, DA: 23, GIR: 1, PPR 58)
2005 Kennie Ferrie-3 (DD: 50, DA: 10, GIR: 1, PPR 72)
2003 Philip Price -16 (DD: 82, DA: 85, GIR: 1, PPR 21)
2002 Michael Campbell -6 (DD: 49, DA: 66, GIR: 18, PPR 17)
2001 Darren Clarke -15 (DD: 37, DA: 47, GIR: 17, PPR 6)
2000 Lee Westwood -12 (DD: 23, DA: 35, GIR: 68, PPR 3) 

DD= Driving Distance
DA= Driving Accuracy
GIR=Greens In Regulation
PPR=Putts Per Round 

Lee Westwood's GIR ranking when winning the European Open here in 2000 was 68^th but the player he edged out by a stroke - Angel Cabrera - ranked first for greens hit and I'd definitely consider that the most important stat to consider given three of the last four course winners have topped the rankings. 

Neither length nor accuracy from the tee have been especially vital in the past and neither has putting. 

Norrman only ranked 36^th for Putting Average, Rory managed to get over the line in 2016 despite a cold putter and Kenny Ferrie didn't putt brilliantly in 2005 either, but he highlighted perfectly that finding greens is the way to go here. 

Ferrie hit more than 80% of the greens in what at times were appalling conditions and that was 10% more than anyone else in the field managed. 

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

Rory McIlroy is going to be very well-fancied this week as he attempts to win the event for a second time and we've seen some very high-quality multiple winners of the Irish Open, with the 2021 US Open champ, Jon Rahm, who won the title in 2017 and 2019, the latest to win the event more than once. 

In total, 11 players have won the Irish Open on more than one occasion and Nick Faldo, Bernhard Langer, Seve Ballesteros, and Colin Montgomerie have all won the title three times. 

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Will it be Third Time Lucky for Rory?

Rory McIlroy arrived here nine years ago with extremely disappointing event form figures reading MC-7-50-35-34-10-MC-MC-MC but he was never outside the top three places after each round before sealing the deal with this incredible approach shot on the 72^nd hole.

The best 5-wood you'll see today @McIlroyRory from 252 yards on the way to winning his home Open in 2016.#DDFIrishOpen #TourArchive pic.twitter.com/3n6fapT3EQ

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) June 29, 2021

He missed the cut when defending, finished 28^th a year later, and he was only 59^th in his next appearance, in 2021, but he was back in-the-mix when we returned to the K Club two years ago and he traded at long odds-on last year too.

Although he ended the week in a tie for 16^th place, McIlroy was matched at 1.9110/11 when he hit the front here after two holes of the final round two years ago but he lost the plot completely when they returned to the course after a weather delay.

It was a strange finish and in addition to trading at odds-on in the outright market, he was matched at a low of 1.171/6 to finish inside the top five and some poor soul backed him at 1.011/100 to finish inside the top 10!

He didn't do an awful lot wrong at Royal County Down last year, where he hit a low of 1.211/5 before Rasmus Hojgaard birdied four of the last five holes to beat him by one, and it will be interesting to see how short he is as he bids to make it third time lucky.

For the record, he was a very strongly fancied 7/24.50 chance here two years ago but he was an uneasy 8/19.00 favourite before the off last year.

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In-Play Tactics

Although Rory went on to win by three, Russell Knox was matched at as short as 1.528/15 when he hit the front with just three holes to play nine years ago and there was all sorts of in-play drama here two years ago.

Norrman had begun the final day trading at around 170.0169/1 and trailing the overnight leader, Hurly Long, by fully six strokes and he was matched at a 1000.0999/1 when he parred the first six holes of round four.

Victory looked highly unlikely but six birdies in eight holes from the seventh saw him hit the front and when he birdied the 72^nd hole he posted a score that nobody else could reach.

"Had a coffee then went out and flushed it."

Vincent Norrman on the weather delay on the way to victory in Ireland.#HorizonIrishOpen pic.twitter.com/eVFIWCLmB7

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 11, 2023

If you're betting in running, the par five fourth, which averaged only 4.46 two years ago, was the easiest hole on the course throughout the week but the next three holes (all par fours) are tricky, and they averaged a combined 0.61 over-par.

Holes 12, 13, 14 and 15 all averaged fractionally over-par, but the track is set up nicely for a dramatic finish. The 16^th and the 18^th are gettable par fives but the par four 17^th is tough. It was the third hardest on the track in 2016, averaging 4.2 for the week.

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Keeping faith with Keita

I was sorely tempted to back last week's winner, Lawrence.

Winning back-to-back is notoriously difficult but he tends to hold his form nicely when he finds it. He's trading at the same odds he went off at last week, so he appears reasonably priced, and he finished third here on debut two years ago. But after much deliberation, I'm going to give last week's fancy, Keita Nakajima another go.

As highlighted above, Greens In Regulation has been the key stat here over the years so the fact that Nakajima has ranked 17^th for the stats in each of his last three starts bodes well and he putted a bit better in Switzerland last week, ranking eighth for Putting Average.

After his fourth-place finish at the Belfry a fortnight ago, a slow second round cost him last week, but he shot 66-65 over the last two rounds to climb up into a tie for 17^th in Crans and I was happy to play him again at a slightly bigger price than last week.

The 25-year-old Japanese was an impressive winner of the Indian Open last year, and a second DP World Tour title could be on the cards soon.

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