• Can anyone stop Scottie racking up the hat-trick?

• Read my Nedbank Golf Challenge preview here

• Read my Australian Open preview here

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Tournament History

The Hero World Challenge was first staged at Greyhawk Golf Club in 1999.

It moved to the Sherwood Country Club in California in 2000 and remained there for the next 14 years before it switched from west to east and to the Isleworth Golf and Country Club in Florida 11 years ago, when Jordan Spieth won by an incredible ten strokes.

It moved further south to the Ernie Els designed Albany Course in the Bahamas 10 years ago and it's been there ever since, although we missed the 2020 edition because of the pandemic.

The Hero World Challenge, hosted by Tiger Woods, is a limited invitation only event with a high-class field of just 20 players.

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Venue

Albany, New Province, Bahamas.

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Course Details

Par 72, 7,302 yards 

The Ernie Els designed Albany course only opened in 2010 and it was used for a professional tournament for the first time when hosting this event 10 years ago.

It's a par 72 but with five par fives, five par threes and eight par fours, it's a little different from most par 72s as they usually have four long and short holes and ten par fours.

It's an exposed flat links-style course with dunes up to 30 feet tall and the TifEagle Bermuda greens, that usually run at around 12 on the stimpmeter, are fairly small.

Here's what the designer had to say about his creation prior to the off in 2015.

"It's a very special golf course. If I were trying to paint an outline mental picture for anyone, I'd say think of a mix between maybe Royal Birkdale and the Els Club Dubai. The bunkering is another particularly strong feature and is partly inspired by one of my favourite types of golf course, the Australian sand-belt classics such as Royal Melbourne."

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 18:30 on Thursday.

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The nine Albany winners with Pre-event Prices

2024 - Scottie Scheffler -25 3.55/2
2023 - Scottie Scheffler -20 6.611/2
2022 - Viktor Hovland -16 21.020/1
2021 - Viktor Hovland -18 12.523/2
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Henrik Stenson -18 42.041/1
2018 - Jon Rahm -20 15.014/1
2017 - Rickie Fowler -18 11.010/1
2016 - Hideki Matsuyama -18 10.09/1
2015 - Bubba Watson -25 13.012/1

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What Will it Take to Win the Hero World Challenge?

No stats are produced for this event for some reason, so we're hindered to a certain degree but current form is something to consider.

Henrik Stenson was winning his first event in more than two years when he took the title here in 2019 but he's by some distance the biggest priced winner at Albany.

Although he had finished fifth in both the BMW Championship and the ZOZO Championship, after failing to convert a 54-hole lead at the Open Championship in July, the 2022 winner, Viktor Hovland, who was defending the title, had been a bit quiet, but every other winner at this venue, and most of the winners of this tournament, have been bang in form.

The winner of the last two editions, Scottie Scheffler, has been in top form for the last few years so it was no surprise to see him win (having finished runner-up in both 2021 and 2022).

Prior to his first win here in 2021, Hovland had won the World Wide Technology Championship in his previous start and the man that really should have won, Collin Morikawa, who traded at as short as 1.081/12 in-running before finishing fifth, had won the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai on his previous outing.

Jon Rahm had just finished fourth defending the DP World Tour Championship title when he won seven years ago, Rickie Fowler had finished second in the World Wide Technology Championship in his previous start before winning in 2017 and Hideki Matsuyama was winning his fourth tournament in five starts eight years ago.

Bubba Watson was in fine fettle when he won in 2015, having just finished third in Japan, following a decent run in the FedEx Cup, and Jordan Spieth had been red-hot when he won this in 2015 in the final event before it moved to the Bahamas.

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Phoenix Open the event to concentrate on?

Links form stands up very nicely here, but previous course experience isn't essential and Hovland, and the man that should have won three years ago, Morikawa, ticked both those boxes emphatically.

Both were playing here for the first time in 2021 and they both have links form at the Open Championship. Morikawa won the Open in 2021 and as already mentioned, Hovland was tied for the lead after 54 holes at St Andrews in 2022 before eventually finishing fourth.

Scheffler, who reaffirms the links form now that he too is an Open Champions following his victory at Portrush in July, now has Albany form figures reading 2-2-1-1 but Rahm had never played here before when he won in 2018 and neither had the runner-up, Tony Finau, or the first-round leader and eventual fifth, Patrick Cantlay, but those three, and all the winners here, have good form in the desert.

Hovland, for example, contended strongly at the DP World Tour Championship in 2023 and he won the Dubai Desert Classic in 2022.

Hovland has form figures at the Phoenix Open reading MC-MC-42, so he doesn't boost the link at all but that's an event that looks worth considering.

Scheffler has won two of the last four editions of the Phoenix Open, Rahm has Phoenix Open form figures reading 5-16-11-10-9-13-10-3, Fowler and Matsuyama have both won the Phoenix Open and Bubba Watson has an eighth, a fifth, a fourth and two seconds in the event so the Phoenix Open looks a very solid guide and so does the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai.

Had Morikawa not messed up from five in front with a round to go in 2022, three winners in-a-row would have also won the DP World Tour Championship and Hovland may well have won the 2023 renewal had his putter behaved. He missed three putts inside seven feet on Sunday before finishing tied for second behind Nicolai Hojgaard in Dubai.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

There were one or two reasonably long priced winners at Sherwood and Stenson was relatively unfancied here six years ago, but the previous five winners were all very well fancied before the off. Scheffler was well-fancied in both of the last two editions, Hovland was a 12.523/2 chance in 2021 and a 20/121.00 chance three years ago, and when Rahm went off at 14/115.00 seven years ago he was the biggest priced winner in five renewals.

Concentrating on the front of the market has been the way to go here.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2024 - Scottie Scheffler - solo second - trailing by a stroke 2.111/10
2023 - Scottie Scheffler - led by three 1.364/11
2022 - Viktor Hovland - led by three 1.75/7
2021 - Viktor Hovland - tied third - trailing by six 26.025/1
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Henrik Stenson - solo second - trailing by a stroke 6.611/2
2018 - John Rahm - tied for the lead 3.4549/20
2017 - Rickie Fowler - tied fifth - trailing by seven 30.029/1
2016 - Hideki Matsuyama - led by seven 1.182/11
2016 - Bubba Watson - led by three 1.654/6

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In-Play Tactics

Spieth won by ten strokes at Isleworth 11 years ago and the first four winners here won by a clear margin too.

Watson only won by three and Matsuyama by two in the first two editions here, but both men were further clear than that at various stages.

Scheffler was in front and trading at odds-on by halfway two years ago and he was matched at 1.42/5 as early as round two last year, although he trailed pre-event 12/113.00 chance, Justin Thomas, by a stroke with 18 to play.

Hovland became the first first-round leader to win at Albany when he defended the title wire-to-wire four years ago but that wasn't as straightforward as his two-stroke margin success suggests and despite the runaway wins here, this is a quirky track where strange things can happen.

Scheffler's victoried have been straightforward enough but Hovland was matched at just 1.021/50 as he led by four on the back-nine three years but long odds-on backers were given an almighty scare at the last.

Birdies at 14, 15 and 16 saw Scheffler close the gap back down to two with two to play but after he and Hovland made matching pars at 17, his late charge didn't look like being enough.

Hovland was still in the driving seat as they stood on the 18^th tee but he very nearly crashed!

A poor drive by the Norwegian left him in a tricky spot above a fairway bunker in the rough before he hit his approach into the water.

The door was ajar for Scheffler but from a great position in the fairway he hit his seven-iron approach into a waste area and Hovland drained a lengthy bogey putt to win by two.

Hovland survived, with a lot of thanks to Scheffler, but two of the last seven 54-hole leaders have thrown away huge leads.

Charley Hoffman led by five with a round to go (trading at around 1.75/7) eight years ago before Fowler came from seven strokes back and trading at 30.029/1 to win. Having been matched in running at 60.059/1, Fowler fired an amazing 11-under-par 61 to win by four!

And we witnessed all sorts of carnage in 2021 when the pre-event 8/19.00 favourite, Morikawa, threw away a five-stroke lead with a round to go.

Having been a 1.282/7 chance on Sunday morning, Morikawa was matched at a low of just 1.081/12 before he lost his ball on the fourth and we finished up witnessing five different players take the lead on Sunday before Hovland, who was matched at 180.0179/1 in-running, finally assumed command late on with back-to-back eagles at 14 and 15.

Away from Morikawa's collapse, Scheffler would have won that year but for a triple-bogey seven at the fourth hole on Sunday and Sam Burns tripled the 14th in round four to highlight just how easy it is to rack up a big number here.

The first-round leaders in 2021, Rory McIlroy, Abraham Ancer and Daniel Berger, finished 18th, 14th and tied for seventh, the halfway leader, Bryson DeChambeau, shot three-over on the weekend to finish tied for 14th and Morikawa's closest challenger with a round to go, Brooks Koepka, shot 74 on Sunday to finish tied for ninth!

The last two editions have been straightforward, but all sorts can happen here, and it can be a great event in which to trade positions.

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Scheffler the straightforward selection

Having been a 6.611/2 chance when winning the title for a first time two years ago, and a 5/23.50 chance 12 months ago, punters need to decide whether there's any juice in the price for the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, at around 13/82.63 as he bids to rack up the hat-trick.

Early exchange players have snaffled up all the odds available at 2.77/4 and above (matched at a high of 2.8815/8) and he's now trading at around 2.68/5.

That's a short price but the field isn't as strong as it's been in previous years and with exceptional course form numbers that read 2-2-1-1, it's very hard to envisage Scheffler not contending.

He won by three strokes two years ago and he hacked up by six 12 months ago, so he clearly loves him annual trip to the Bahamas.

Although short for a golfer pre-event, anything around 6/42.50 is more than fair so I was more than happy to get him onside at the Sportsbook's boosted odds of 7/42.75.

As highlighted in the Australian Open preview, I like the chances of the pre-event favourite there, Rory McIlroy, and I've doubled the pair at combined odds of 14/115.00.

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