FedEx St Jude Championship: The Punter's Preview

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The FedEx Cup Playoff Series kicks off in Memphis this week, so Steve Rawlings is here with his comprehensive preview of the first of the three Playoff events here...


FedEx St Jude Championship tournament history

There has been a PGA Tour event staged in Memphis since 1958.

Originally known as the Memphis Open, the St Jude Invitational was a fairly big event on the PGA Tour for years, but its status was elevated considerably in 2018 when it became one of the high-profile World Golf Championship events.

The WGC events are consigned to history now, after the final edition of the WGC Match Play in 2023, but the FedEx St Jude Championship is still a very prestigious event having replaced the Northern Trust four years ago - an event that had kicked off the FedEx Cup Playoff Series since its inception in2007,

The first of three FedEx Cup Playoff Series events, the FedEx St Jude Championship is a limited field event for the top 70 in the FedEx Cup standings after the last counting event (last week's Wyndham Championship).

The FedEx Cup Playoff Series was reduced from four events to three in 2019 and the field numbers were reduced three years ago.

A field of 125 lined-up here four years ago but for the fourth year in-a-row the field has been reduced to 70 and at the end of this event, the top 50 in the standings will move on to Bellerive Country Club for the BMW Championship before the top-30 fight it out at East Lake in a fortnight's time to determine the overall FedEx Cup winner.

This will the 38th year in-a-row that TPC Southwind has hosted a PGA Tour event.


Venue

TPC Southwind, Memphis, Tennessee


Course details

Par 70 -7,288 yards
Stroke Average in 2025 - 69.12 

Designed by Ron Prichard, in consultation with Fuzzy Zoeller and Hubert Green, and opened in 1988, TPC Southwind has always been a fairly stern test, but it was made even tougher 12 years ago.

An additional 125 trees were planted, 15 new bunkers were added (taking the total up to 96), the par five fifth was converted to a par four (reducing the par to 70), the Zoysia fairways were re-contoured and narrowed and over 200 yards were added.

The smaller than average greens were changed from bentgrass to Bermuda and there were more changes to the course again before last year's edition.

The old Champion Bermudagrass surfaces were redone and equipped with TifEagle Bermudagrass.

New undulations were introduced to the greens, and they were expanded a bit around the edges.

Every tee box was also reconstructed. The project lengthened three holes, most notably the par-4 fifth hole, by 44 yards and it now measures 529 yards. The par-4 sixth was reduced by 12 yards but the work yielded an overall net gain of 45 yards on four holes.

Last year the greens ran at 12.5 feet on the Stimpmeter and the primary rough was unchanged at three inches.

Water is in play on 10 holes at Southwind and nine holes are doglegs.


Weather forecast


TV coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days beginning at 19:00 UK time on Thursday


Recent TPC Southwind winners with pre-event Betfair Exchange Prices

First four FedEx St Jude winners

2025 - Justin Rose -16 (Playoff) 140.0139/1
2024 - Hideki Matsuyama -17 34.033/1
2023 - Lucas Glover -15 (Playoff) 120.0119/1
2022 - Will Zalatoris -15 (Playoff) 23.022/1

WGC FedEx St Jude Winners

2021 - Abraham Ancer -16 55.054/1 -16 (playoff)
2020 - Justin Thomas - 13 14.527/2
2019 - Brooks Koepka -16 11.010/1

Last Four St Jude Winners

2018 - Dustin Johnson -19 8.27/1
2017 - Daniel Berger -10 34.033/1
2016 - Daniel Berger -13 30.029/1
2015 - Fabian Gomez -13 600.0599/1


A statistical look at the FedEx St Jude

None of the driving stats stand out at TPC Southwind. The last six winners have ranked 16th, 18th,16th, 31st, 15th and 14th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and neither of the traditional driving metrics - Driving Distance or Driving Accuracy - have come to the fore consistently.

It's not so fiddly that you need to be arrow-straight off the tee either. Last year's winner, Justin Rose, ranked 18th for DD and 20th and that was fairly typical. In 2024, the victor, Hideki Matsuyama, had ranked 21st and 25th for those two metrics.

The 2023 winner, Lucas Glover ranked only 37th for Greens In Regulation and 12 years ago, the winner, Ben Crane, only ranked 47th but GIR is usually a great indicator.

The first four home 12 months ago ranked second, seventh, third and fifth for GIR, Matsuyama ranked fourth two years ago, and Glover and Crane are the only course winners in the last 16 years not to rank inside the top ten for that stat.

The last two winners have ranked 18th and 55th for Scrambling and Daniel Berger, who won back-to-back here in 2016 and 2017, also had poor Scrambling stats.

He ranked 24th a decade ago and 38th in 2017 but seven of the ten winners before him ranked no worse than seventh and it's usually a key stat, despite the last two results.

The first and second in 2018 ranked fourth and third for Scrambling, Koepka ranked number one in 2019, Thomas ranked seventh in 2021, Abraham Ancer ranked first in 2021, Zalatoris ranked seventh four years ago, and Glover topped the Scrambling stats in 2023.

The first and second ranked third and first on the par fours in 2024 and last year's playoff protagonists, Rose and JJ Spaun, ranked fifth and third for Par 4 Scoring. Tommy Fleetwood, who finished third, played the par fours best.

Glover and the man he beat in extra time, Patrick Cantlay, played the par fours in eight-under-par in 2023 and that was better than anyone else in the field. The two playoff protagonists 12 months earlier, Will Zalatoris and Sepp Straka, ranked second and first for Par 4 Scoring, Abraham Ancer ranked third when he won here in 2021, and the 2020 course winner, Justin Thomas, ranked second.

The 2019 winner, Brooks Koepka, and the runner-up, Webb Simpson, ranked first and third, and Dustin Johnson and Andrew Putnam, the first two home in 2018, ranked first and second for Par 4 Scoring so 11 of the last 13 course winners have now ranked inside the top four for that stat.

Par 4 Scoring and GIR are the two stats to concentrate on.

There were no Strokes Gained stats for the 2019 and 2020 events here but in the last six tournaments here in which there were SG stats, the winners have ranked first, first, fourth, first, fourth, ninth and third for SG: Tee-to Green


Previous course form a plus over the last decade

Prior to last year's victory, Justin Rose had only ordinary course for figures reading 11-54-MC-20-22 but he'd sat seventh and four off the lead at halfway on debut in 2019 and he sat third at halfway in 2024, so he'd played a bit better there than his numbers suggested.

With previous figures reading 18-MC-15, the 2021 course winner, Abraham Ancer, didn't have a brilliant Southwind CV but he beat the 2024 champ, Matsuyama, in the playoff, and the 2023 winner, Lucas Glover, had finished third the year before he won here'

Justin Thomas had finished 12th on debut in 2019 before winning in 2020, the 2022 winner, Zalatoris, had finished eighth on his only previous appearance and Brooks Koepka has course form figures here reading 19-3-2-27-30-1-2-54.

Dustin Johnson was winning here for a second time in 2018, and Daniel Berger has figures reading 1-1-MC-2-5-68 so course form has proven a bit plus over the last decade but prior to Berger's defence in 2017, previous course form had been far from essential and debutants had a really good record.

In his two visits before his win 11 years ago, Fabian Gomez had finished 15th on debut in 2011 before missing the cut in 2013, and the 2014 winner, Ben Crane, had inconsistent course form figures reading MC-6-33-39-14-12-MC-18, but at least they'd played the course before...

Berger was making his debut when he won in 2016, the 2013 winner, Harris English, was playing in his first event at TPC Southwind, DJ had never played here before when he won in 2012 and neither had the 2011 champ, Lee Westwood, who beat another first-timer, Robert Karlsson, in a playoff.

Course form may have been key of late, but I wouldn't dismiss anyone on account of a lack of course knowledge.


Waialae the best course correlation

Several courses correlate nicely with TPC Southwind.

Results at the Puerto Rico Open, the RSM Classic, the Charles Schwab Challenge and the World Wide Technology in Mexico, when it was played at El Camaleon, are all worth checking out but the strongest correlation appears to be with the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Matsuyama, Fabian Gomez, Justin Thomas and David Toms have won at both TPC Southwind and Waialae Country Club, home of the Sony Open, and TPC Southwind winners, Justin Rose, Lucas Glover, Harris English, Harrison Frazar and Brian Gay, have all also been placed in Hawaii.

The 2020 Sony Open winner, Cameron Smith, was in-contention here four years ago and he should have got into the playoff a year early (matched at a low of 2.3811/8). And last year's beaten playoff protagonist, JJ Spaun, who traded at a low of 1.412/5, also traded at odds on when he led the 2025 Sony Open with a couple of holes to play.


Will the Wyndham winner be worth a wager?

It may be worth placing a small wager on whoever wins the Wyndham Championship, and it may also be worth backing whoever wins here this week at the BMW Championship next week.

Lucas Glover went back-to-back three years ago, winning here after winning the Wyndham, and Viktor Hovland then won both the BMW Championship and the Tour Championship.

Last year's Playoff events were won by Rose, Scottie Scheffler and Tommy Fleetwood and the 2024 winners were Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley and Scheffler but someone has won two FedEx Cup Playoff events in 10 of the last 13 years, and on 12 occasions in total.

Those that get hot around the playoffs tend to stay hot and it's well worth highlighting that last year's BMW Championship winner, Scheffler, traded at a low of 1.68/13 here and that Fleetwood traded at as short as 1.071/14 here!

I've often sided with the previous week's winner during the Playoff Series, but Glover's victory here three years ago suggests that we can extended that system to backing the Wyndham winner here too. Last year's Wyndham winner, Cam Young, finished fifth here after a slow start.


A great track for veteran long-shots

Zalatoris won two days before his 26th birthday in 2022 and five of the last 10 winners have been in their 20s but this has been a great venue for veterans and outsiders over the years.

The 43-year-old Glover was a 120.0119/1 chance three years ago, 32-year-old, Matsuyama, was a 34.033/1 shot in 2024 and 45-year-old, Rose, was a 140.0139/1 chance.

Like last week's venue, Sedgefield, TPC Southwind is a course that doesn't need to be overpowered so it's one that gives the older pros a bit of a chance.

Fabian Gomez was matched at 610.0609/1 11 years ago and Ben Crane was a 270.0269/1 chance in 2014. In addition to those two, the likes of Harrison Frazar, Woody Austin, Jeff Maggert, Len Mattiace, Bob Estes, Notah Begay, Ted Tryba and Dicky Pride have all left punters scratching their heads over the last 30 years.

Prior to Berger's initial success a decade ago, only four other men in their 20s had won here since 1989. Pride in 1994, Begay in 2000, Dustin Johnson in 2012 and English in 2013. And in that period, like two of the last three winners, six winners had been in their 40s. Gomez was 36 in 2013, Crane was 38 a year later and Frazar was only days away from his 40th birthday 15 years ago.


Course winner's position and Betfair Exchange price prior to round four

2025 - Justin Rose - solo second - trailing by one 6.411/2
2024 - Hideki Matsuyama led by five 1.261/4
2023 - Lucas Glover - led by one 3.6553/20
2022 - Will Zalatoris - tied third - trailing by two 5.59/2
2021 - Abraham Ancer - solo fourth - trailing by four 18.017/1
2020 - Justin Thomas - solo fifth - trailing by four 10.09/1
2019 - Brooks Koepka - solo second - trailing by one 3.4549/20
2018 - Dustin Johnson - tied for the lead 1.4640/85
2017 - Daniel Berger - T9 - trailing by three 20.019/1
2016 - Daniel Berger - leading by three 2.447/5
2015 - Fabian Gomez - tied for the lead 6.86/1


Up with the pace is the place to be at TPC Southwind

Rose was inside the top three all week long 12 months ago, Matsuyama was in front at halfway, having sat second after round one in 2024, and Glover was in front after rounds two and three before eventually beating Patrick Cantlay in a playoff three years ago, having sat tied for fifth after round one, but, although unusual, it is possible to win here from off the pace.

Having been very well supported before the off in 2022, Zalatoris drifted all the way out to 800.0799/1 when he played the first nine holes of the tournament in two-over-par, and he demonstrated perfectly how a slow start can be overcome when he sat tied for 86th and nine adrift after round one.

A 62 in round two moved Ancer from tied 13th to second and he was never more than five adrift five years ago but the 2020 winner, Justin Thomas, sat fifth after the first round before falling back to 12th at halfway. He was matched at 95.094/1 during round two and he trailed by seven strokes at halfway but that's as far back at that stage as any course winner this century.

However, an off the pace winner can't be ruled out if the 2021 renewal is anything to go by...

Sam Burns and Matsuyama muscled their way into the playoff won by Ancer having both been matched at 1000.0999/1 when trailing by eight and nine strokes respectively after three rounds and Berger's victory nine years was unusual given how slow he started.

He trailed by six after the opening round and, like Thomas, by seven at halfway. He was matched at a whopping 190.0189/1 in-running so there's plenty of evidence to suggest a slow start can be overcome but most winners here are in the van throughout.

In 2019, Koepka, was tied for 18th and six behind the leader, Jon Rahm, after round one and he was four adrift of the halfway pacesetter, Matt Fitzpatrick, before moving up to second behind Rory McIlroy with a round to go.

As an indication as to how well the venue has historically favoured frontrunners, when Ben Crane won here 12 years ago, he was the sixth wire-to-wire winner since 1996 and he was the first winner on the PGA Tour to fail to record a birdie in round four since Justin Leonard had won here in 2005, suggesting that this really is somewhere that you can start fast and cling on.

It may also be somewhere that you can get a clear leader beat though. As already mentioned, last year's 54-hole leader, Fleetwood, traded at as short as 1.061/18 and although he went on to win by two, Matsuyama very nearly threw the event away on Sunday two years ago (Viktor Hovland was matched at 1.674/6 in-running).

And when the aforementioned Leonard won here by a stroke 21 years ago, he'd led by eight with 18 to play!


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