Farmers Insurance Open: Gerard the sole selection again at 43/1

• Six of the last seven winners started on the North Course

• History suggests that 54-hole leaders can be taken on

• Read my Bahrain Championship preview here 

• For the latest Betfair golf odds click here

• Click here for more golf tips for upcoming tournaments

---

What happened last week? Ominous Scheffler kicks off 2026 in style

Pre-event 80.079/1 chance, Patrick Reed, was the comfortable winner of the Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour.

Leading by four with 18 to play, he looked a decent price at 1.4840/85 and odds-on backers had very little to worry about.

David Puig, who begun the day in second, hit a low of 2.982/1 after he'd birdied three holes in-a-row from the eighth to get to within two but he finished poorly after that, bogeying 11, 13 and 15 before he received a two-stroke penalty on the 18^th for grounding his club in the greenside bunker. The Spaniard finished the week in a tie for seventh, seven strokes behind Reed.

Over on the PGA Tour, the pre-event 4.84/1 favourite, Scottie Scheffler, began the final round of the American Express trailing by just a stroke and trading at 2.47/5 and the world number one cruised to a comfortable four-stroke victory.

Players to win 20+ times on the PGA Tour including 4 or more majors before age 30 in the modern era

Jack Nicklaus
Tiger Woods
Scottie Scheffler

-- Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) January 25, 2026

Scheffler has now won 14 of the last 35 PGA Tour events he's played in - an incredible strike rate of 40%.

The 29-year-old has shortened up to 4.3100/30 to win the year's first major - the US Masters - but if last week's victory was a sign of what's to come in 2026, I can see him shortening up further before he attempts to win at Augusta for the third time in five years.

---

Tournament History

Originally known as the San Diego Open and first staged in 1952, the Farmers Insurance Open is now in its 74^th year. It's been played at Torrey Pines since 1968.

The event is played over two courses, with the entire field playing both the North and South Courses over the first two days before the weekend play is staged entirely on the tougher, longer, South Course.

The South Course was also the venue for the 2021 US Open, won by the 2017 Farmers Insurance Open winner, Jon Rahm, and after the Southern Californian wildfires last January, it was also the venue for the relocated Genesis Invitational, won by Ludvig Aberg.

After being staged between Wednesday and Saturday for three years in-a-row, this year's edition returns to the traditional Thursday - Sunday slot.

---

Venue

Torrey Pines, La Jolla, California.

---

Course Details

North Course, par 72, 7,258 yards, stroke average in 2025 - 72.57
South Course, par 72, 7,765 yards, stroke average in 2025 - 73.68

Both courses were designed by Billy Bell Jr. and they both opened in 1957. 

The South Course was extensively revamped in 2001, by Rees Jones; after it had been awarded the 2008 US Open, and it was tweaked again ahead of the 2021 renewal.

The North Course had always differed quite significantly to the South, but it underwent a renovation of its own, by Tom Weiskopf, prior to the 2017 renewal and the scoring differential between the two narrowed considerably after that.

In the two renewals prior to the North Course overhaul, there was a 3.57 strokes differential in the bad weather of 2016 and a difference of 3.29 in 2015 but in the nine years since the course changes, we haven't seen a differential that wide.

The largest differential occurred in 2021 but it's worth bearing in mind that the US Open was staged on the South Course in June 2021 and preparation for the toughest of the four majors will have been underway when this event was staged.

Differential between the North and South Courses since the North's renovation

2017 - 1.49
2018 - 1.5
2019 - 1.89
2020 - 1.96
2021 - 3.21 (US Open year)
2022 - 1.36
2023 - 2.18
2024 - 2.9
2025 - 1.11

---

Weather Forecast

---

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 17:00 on Thursday.

---

Last Ten Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2025 - Harris English -8 130.0129/1
2024 - Matthieu Pavon -13 230.0229/1
2023 - Max Homa -13 28.027/1
2022 - Luke List -15 95.094/1 (playoff)
2021 - Patrick Reed -14 36.035/1
2020 - Marc Leishman -15 80.079/1
2019 - Justin Rose -21 19.018/1
2018 - Jason Day -10 26.025/1 (playoff)
2017 - Jon Rahm -13 55.054/1
2016 - Brandt Snedeker -6 19.018/1 

---

What Will it Take to Win the Farmers Insurance Open?

Nothing really jumps out statistically here and unsurprisingly for a championship course, most winners rank fairly-highly in all or almost all other categories.

The South Course is long so distance off the tee is often advantageous but it's far from essential.

Aberg ranked second for Driving Distance when winning the Genesis here in February last year, the 2022 winner of this event, Luke List, ranked 12^th for DD and four of the 10 winners before him ranked first or second but five of the last six winners have ranked between 34^th and 55^th so a lack of length can be overcome.

We haven't seen any winner top the Greens In Regulation stats since Bubba Watson way back in 2011 and it doesn't appear an essential stat anymore.

Aberg only ranked 24^th when winning the Genesis here and last year's Farmers winner, Harris English, only ranked 30^th. The 2024 shock winner, Matthieu Pavon, only ranked 25^th, and Patrick Reed ranked a remarkable 63^rd five years ago (as well as only 39^th for Strokes Gained: Approach) but 16^th was the worst any of the previous six victors had ranked for GIR.

The first six home ranking third, 32^nd, second, first, seventh and 13^th for GIR in 2023 but Strokes Gained: Approach now looks a better metric to concentrate on.

The first two home ranked fourth and third last year, Pavon ranked third for SG: Approach two years ago, the 2023 winner, Max Homa, topped the rankings, and seven of the last eight winners have ranked inside the top five for SG: Approach. Aberg ranked fourth when winning the Genesis here.

When Jason Day won the title for the first time 11 years ago, his Putting Average ranking was only 33^rd and in recent years, both English and List have ranked only ranked 28^th but they're the exceptions.

Pavon only ranked 12^th but Aberg ranked fourth in February for PA, five of the last nine winners of this event have ranked fourth or better, and ten of the last 13 winners have ranked inside the top ten for Putting Average.

---

Is There an Angle In?

Prior to two years ago, Jon Rahm, who won the Farmers in 2017, had been the only winner of the event to be playing Torrey Pines for the first time since it moved there back in 1968, so Pavon's victory was very much unexpected and even if we disregard seven-time winner, Tiger Woods, course form has been a huge indicator.

Last year's winner, Harris English, had finished second in this event a decade earlier and he also finished third in the 2021 US Open here.

The 2023 winner, Max Homa, had missed five cuts here before his victory, but he'd also finished ninth and 18^th, in 2020 and '21, and although he was a big outsider four years ago, Luke List had finished 12^th in 2018 and 10^th in 2021. 

Patrick Reed had finished sixth 12 months before he won and the 2020 winner, Marc Leishman, had twice finished runner-up in the event previously. And they were far from the first to give us an indication that they liked the place... 

Scott Stallings hadn't made a cut here before winning 12 years ago but he was very much the exception rather than the rule and it's worth noting that he followed up his win with a second 12 months later. 

Brandt Snedeker was winning here for a second time when he got lucky with the draw in foul conditions ten years ago and Jason Day has also won the event twice. 

Justin Rose struggled to get to know the place but he had been fourth and eighth in the two years prior to his 2019 victory and Ben Crane, Nick Watney, and even the shock 2004 winner, John Daly, had all finished inside the top-10 in at least one of their previous two tournament appearances, so despite the 2017 and 2024 results, think very carefully before backing someone with little or no previous experience of the venue. 

Glen Abbey, which has hosted many a Canadian Open, provides far and away the strongest course correlation but unfortunately, we haven't had an event staged there since 2018. 

---

Is There an Identikit Winner?

To varying degrees, four of the last seven winners have been relatively unfancied, going off at - at least 80.079/1, but there have only been four winners in the last 30 years that wouldn't be described as top-class.

It had taken Pavon 182 attempts to finally get off the mark on the DP World Tour, just three months before he became the first Frenchman to win on the PGA Tour when he won here, and at the age of 37, and after years of trying, Luke List was finally getting off the mark for the very first time on the PGA Tour when he took the title four years ago. 

The 2014 winner, Scott Stallings, was something of an anomaly and although a multiple PGA Tour winner, Ben Crane couldn't be described as top-class either but every other winner going right the way back into the last century has been straight out of the top drawer.

---

Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2025 - Harris English - led by one 2.8615/8
2024 - Matthieu Pavon - T2nd - trailing by one 8.615/2
2023 - Max Homa - T4th - trailing by five 22.021/1
2022 - Luke List - T19th - trailing by five 290.0289/1
2021 - Patrick Reed -tied for the lead 4.131/10
2020 - Marc Leishman - T7th - trailing by four 48.047/1
2019 - Justin Rose led by three strokes 1.4840/85
2018 - Jason Day T4th - trailing by three 8.88/1
2017 - Jon Rahm T13th - trailing by three 55.054/1
2016 - Brandt Snedeker - trailing by six 200.0199/1

---

In-Play Tactics

This is one of the rare events where a fast start is far from essential.

Harris English sat tied for 18^th and five adrift after the opening 18 but in the ten years before that we witnessed winners sitting tied for 63^rd, 77^th, 90^th, 95^th and 113^th after round one!

Reed, five years ago, was the first - first round leader to go on to win since 1996 and Tiger Woods (2008 and 2013) and Justin Rose seven years ago, are the only halfway leaders to convert. 

Like Rose, Woods was never headed in 2008 and 2013, once he'd hit the front at halfway, and he was also in front after round three in 2003 but other than Reed in 2021 and English 12 months ago, the only other third round leaders to go on to win this century are Phil Mickelson in 2000 and John Daly in 2004, and he needed to win a three-man play-off. 

After Aberg had fallen away 12 months ago, having traded at odds-on during round two, English led with 18 to play over a host of pre-event long-shots, most of which were in search of their first PGA Tour titles, and he was able to hang on to win by one, despite shooting 73 in round four but this is most definitely an event in which you can take on the 54-hole leaders and Sundays offer up trading opportunities aplenty. 

The 2024 third round leader, Stephan Jaeger, was matched at just 1.645/8 during round four (finished tied third) and I backed the runner-up, Keegan Bradley, at 270.0269/1 with a round to go three years ago and he made for a great trading vehicle.

The Ryder Cup captain was matched at a low of 4.94/1 and two other players were matched at a lot shorter than they'd began the day trading at in 2023...

Hideki Matsuyama hit a low of 5.24/1 having been matched at 800.0799/1 before the final round and although he didn't go quite as low as Matsuyama or Bradley, Rickie Fowler was matched at a low of 14.527/2 having been trading at around 260.0259/1 after round three.

The 2023 winner, Homa, who was a 22.021/1 chance after 54 holes, was the second Farmers Insurance Open winner in-a-row to win from five strokes back with a round to go and off the pace winners are common.

The draw is tough to work out now. List started on the South Course four years and between 2011 and 2018, all eight winners began the event on the South Course but six of the last seven winners have begun the event on the North Course so that now looks the place to start.

---

Gerard the sole selection again

With only Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg and Cameron Young trading at less than 32.031/1, this is a wide-open event and one I'm in no rush to get involved in.

Aberg's liking for the venue is a huge plus, but he withdrew from the American Express due to illness last week so I'm happy to swerve him before the off and my sole selection is last week's fancy, Ryan Gerard, who finished second again for the third tournament in-a-row.

Now up to number 24 in the Official World rankings, Gerard is in the form of his life.

The hot streak will come to and end sooner or later, but he was 15^th on debut here 12 months ago having finished only 37^th at the Sony Open and 51^st in the American Express so after two second placed finishes in those events this year, it wouldn't be at all surprising to see him contend again here.

---

Now read more Golf tips and previews here.

---