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Big hitters set to prosper again
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Third round leaders tough to beat
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What happened last week? Irishmen stumble as Spaniard claims the spoils
The 54-hole two stroke leader of the Sony Open, Davis Riley, was matched at as low as 2.021/1 after he'd played his first five holes of round four in two under par, but he fell away badly after that to eventually finish tied for sixth.
With Riley faltering, Dave Tindall's pre-event 40/141.00 pick, Chris Gotterup, who I also backed at 11/26.50 with 18 holes to play, assumed command and the 26-year-old was the only player in the field to trade at odds-on.
Gotterup had been fairly weak on the Exchange market before the off, drifting from a generous enough initial offering on Monday of 70.069/1 all the way out to 100.099/1, before tightening up again to around 90.089/1 on Thursday morning, but he claimed his third PGA Tour victory in style.
A birdie at the par three 17th put the event to bed and he went on to win by two over my 22.021/1 halfway pick, Ryan Gerard, but there was plenty of drama in the year's first DP World Tour event, which was won by the 54-hole leader, Nacho Elvira, who had begun the event trading at around 300.0299/1.
Pre-event 4.84/1 favourite, Rory McIlroy, was matched at as low as 1.9110/11 as early as Friday morning and Shane Lowry hit a low of 1.271/4 as late as the 72nd hole before this calamitous bunker shot completely scuppered his chances.
Having traded at odds-on after a great start to round four, Elvira looked in big trouble when he made back-to-back bogeys at eight and nine and he found water on the par five 10th but he composed himself nicely to roll in a par save from just inside nine feet there and he went on to win by one over Daniel Hillier, thanks to seven more pars and a birdie at 17.
Tournament History
The Dubai Desert Classic was first staged as long ago as 1989 when England's Mark James beat Australia's Peter O'Malley in a playoff.
It was the first event to be staged on the Arabian Peninsula and as there was no event staged in 1991; this will be the 37th edition.
The Dubai Desert Classic is the first of five Rolex Series events in 2026.
Venue
Emirates Golf Club, Dubai, UAE.
Course Details
Par 72, 7,439 yards
Stroke Index in 2025 - 71.93
Apart from the 1999 and 2000 renewals, when the tournament was staged at last week's venue - the Dubai Creek Golf Club - the Majlis course, designed by Karl Litten and opened in 1988, has hosted this event since its inception.
The fairways are fairly generous and the rough isn't often brutal.
The front nine ends with some tough holes. In fact, three of the four toughest holes last year were the sixth, eighth and ninth holes and it's the stronger of the two nines.
The front nine last year, which has a par of 35, averaged 35.87, whereas the back nine, which contains three par fives and has a par of 37, averaged 36.06.
The Majlis is a typically exposed desert track, so the wind is very often a factor and if it gets up, the scoring is much harder than in calm conditions.
As an indication of how different the course plays in the wind, the 2020 winner, Lucas Herbert, won in only nine-under-par (the highest ever tournament aggregate score) but 12 months earlier, Bryson DeChambeau got to -24, which was the event's record low score.
The greens, that are usually set at around 11.5 on the Stimpmeter, were completely renovated prior to the off four years ago and this is what Mohammed Buamim, the Emirates club's manager, told Gulf News during the renovation.
"It was discovered that the greens, in particular, were not in the condition we would like them to be and therefore decided to have them rebuilt.
"We have also taken this opportunity to return them to their original size and shape, which means that they will get bigger and by that open up more choices for interesting pin positions. I'm confident that it will improve the course significantly."
The new putting surfaces are Bermuda TifEagle and the whole course is laid to Bermuda grass. Water in play on ten holes.
Weather Forecast
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 7:30 on Thursday in the UK.
Last 10 Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices
2025 - Tyrrell Hatton -15 11.010/1
2024 - Rory McIlroy -14 4.03/1
2023 - Rory McIlroy -19 4.47/2
2022 - Victor Hovland -12 (playoff) 11.010/1
2021 - Paul Casey -17 25.024/1
2020 - Lucas Herbert -9 230.0229/1 (playoff)
2019 - Bryson DeChambeau -24 11.010/1
2018 - Li Haotong -23 180.0179/1
2017 - Sergio Garcia -19 22.021/1
2016 - Danny Willett -19 48.047/1
What Will it Take to Win the Dubai Desert Classic?
Although last year's winner, Tyrrell Hatton, only ranked 25th for Driving Distance, length off the tee has been extremely important here.
Nobody hit it further off the tee than the winner, Rory McIlroy, in 2024 and the top four in the DD stats finished inside the top seven and ties. Rasmus Hojgaard, who ranked fifth, finished tied for 11th, having sat tied for fourth through three rounds.
McIlroy ranked fourth for DD in 2023, the 2022 winner, Victor Hovland, ranked 13th for DD, with Rory in third ranking first, and the 2020 winner, Lucas Herbert, ranked ninth for DD with Dean Burmester and Adri Arnaus, who finished tied for third, ranking first and sixth for DD.
Monstrously long, Bryson DeChambeau, only ranked a curiously short 26th for DD when he won here seven years ago but the six winners before him ranked 14th, fourth, 10th, first, fifth and fourth.
Although Hovland ranked third for Driving Accuracy four years ago and Sergio Garcia ranked fourth eight years ago, you don't have to hit it especially straight here.
Hovland and Garcia apart, no other winner has ranked any better than 15th for fairways found, the average DA ranking of the ten winners before Hovland was just 37.1 and the last three winners have ranked only 15th, 82nd and 49th.
McIlroy only ranked 24th for Greens In Regulation in 2023 and ninth a year later but as many as 14 of the last 21 winners have ranked inside the top five for GIR.
Hatton topped the GIR rankings last year and the three men behind him ranked tied ninth and fourth.
Hatton ranked fourth for Putting Average last year and Rory and the runner-up, Patrick Reed, ranked third and second for PA three years ago. The beaten playoff protagonist in 2022, Richard Bland, ranked first for PA and second for Strokes Gained: Putting and scanning a little further back, the 2019 winner, DeChambeau, ranked second for PA, Li ranked first in 2018, and so did Danny Willett when he won here a decade ago, but it hasn't always been vital to putt brilliantly of late.
The 2020 and 2021 winners only ranked 22nd and 21st for Putting Average, and 41st and 14th for SG: Putting and Rory only ranked 19th and 31st for those two metrics when he won two years ago.
In summary, GIR is an important stat but Driving Distance is arguably the best stat to focus on. Short hitters are going to struggle and concentrating on those that can give it a good whack off the tee need to be considered carefully.
Correlating Courses
Historically, form at Dom Pedro Victoria, which hosted the Portugal Masters up until 2022, held up well here but that form's a bit old now.
Form at any other events held in the desert needs to be respected so check out the Qatar Masters, the Abu Dhabi Championship, the Ras Al Khaimah Championship, the DP World Championship and next week's event, the Bahrain Championship.
Thorbjorn Olesen won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship two years ago having finished tied 21st here but he'd sat seventh with a round to go.
Given it's another Karl Litton layout, and that Rory won here a week after he should have won there two years ago, anyone that played nicely at last week's venue, Dubai Creek, is worthy of careful consideration.
Away from the desert and old form in Portugal, the Nedbank Golf Challenge is an event that appears to correlate well with this one.
As many as seven players to win the Nedbank Golf Challenge at the Gary Player Country Club have won this event and five Gary Player Course winners - Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Alex Noren, Lee Westwood, Martin Kaymer and Retief Goosen have finished second here.
And finally, as it does at all desert tracks, links form holds up really well here.
Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four
2025 - Tyrrell Hatton - solo second, trailing one 2.186/5
2024 - Rory McIlroy - T2nd - trailing by two 2.6613/8
2023 - Rory McIlroy - led by three 1.42/5
2022 - Victor Hovland - T13th trailing by six 48.047/1
2021 - Paul Casey - led by a stroke 1.991/1
2020 - Lucas Herbert - T13th trailing by six 300.0299/1
2019 - Bryson DeChambeau led by a stroke 1.9620/21
2018 - Li Haotong led by a stroke 3.711/4
2017 - Sergio Garcia led by three strokes 1.738/11
2016 - Danny Willett led by a stroke 2.6813/8
In-Play Tactics
Hatton was a very slower starter last year. He sat tied for 48th and six off the lead after round one and Rory McIlroy was matched at 50.049/1 in-running in 2024 when he was ten adrift at halfway.
Hatton got a shift on - on Friday, firing a second round 65 to climb up into a tie for third and Rory was helped considerably in 2024 by the clear leader, Cam Young, underperforming in-the-mix.
The high-class American was matched at a low of 1.794/5 during round two and he was three in front at halfway before rounds of 71 and 74 over the weekend eventually saw him finish third, beaten by two, but despite the last two results, this is generally a venue that really suits the frontrunners.
As highlighted above in the course notes, how windy it is here is a determining factor as to how hard the course plays and it also has a huge bearing on how the tournament pans out.
The 2020 winner, Lucas Herbert, won with the highest winning total (-9). The previous record high had been -11 (Alvaro Quiros in 2011), and Hovland and Bland only got to 12-under-par four years ago.
It's no coincidence that those three editions are the only other renewals in which the winners have come from way off the pace...
The tricky blustery conditions caused mayhem six years ago and although they'd been up with the pace earlier in the tournament, both the playoff protagonists, Herbert and Bezuidenhout, had trailed by six with a round to go yet they finished two strokes clear of the remainder having traded at 1000.0999/1 during the final round!
Having been matched at a high of 95.094/1 in-running, Hovland finished birdie-eagle-birdie in 2022, but it still wouldn't have been enough without a poor finish from McIlroy, who was matched at a low of 1.392/5.
Alvaro Quiros' victory here in 2011 was remarkable for several reasons. He made three eagles, including a two on the par four second hole, and a hole-in-one during the final round, and he also made a pair of triple-bogeys, one on day one, at the par five 10th, and one at the eighth hole on day four but the most remarkable thing about his win was how far off the pace he had been before winning. He trailed by eight strokes after both rounds one and two and up until 2020 that was the furthest any winner had trailed by a country mile.
Although he trailed by six after round three, Hovland started nicely enough (ninth and three back after round one and fifth and four adrift at halfway) and along with Hatton 12 months ago, Mark O'Meara, who was six adrift in 2004, and Quiros, who trailed by eight in 2011, are the only other winners this century that weren't within four of the lead after round one.
Rory two years ago, who had sat tied for 24th and 10 adrift, Herbert, who was tied 11th and four back at halfway six years ago, Quiros 15 years ago, and Robert-Jan Derksen, the shock 2003 champ, who sat tied for 20th and five off the lead, are the only four winners to be off the pace at halfway. Every other course winner here has been inside the top seven places at halfway and unless the weather is a big issue, concentrating on the leaders is the way to go.
As many as four of the last six 54-hole leaders have been beaten but the seven winners between 2013 and 2019 were all in front with 18 to play and in 22 of the 36 editions staged to date, the third-round leader has gone on to win.
Ashun Wu (2020), Justin Harding (2022) and Daniel Hillier last year, were all long-shots before the off and the 54-hole leader in 2024, Cam Young, had been notoriously poor in-contention.
Those four all felt the heat, shooting final rounds of 77 (Wu), 76 (Harding), 74 (Young) and 71 (Hillier) so if we get a third-round leader with a proven pedigree this time around, they may well be worth siding with.
Rory the straightforward selection once again
Rory McIlroy's first three visits to the Emirates resulted in two missed cuts and a tied 52nd but since 2009 his form figures here read a staggeringly good 1-6-10-5-9-1-6-2-3-1-1-4.
With four wins and 12 consecutive top 10s, it's stating the obvious to say the venue suits his eye and he's impossible to ignore at odds in excess of 4/15.00.
Back Rory McIlroy
There's no First Round Leader Market on the Sportsbook yet but anything in double-figures will be worth taking given his penchant for a fast start in the region.
In addition to leading here after round one four times, he led the second edition of the Dubai Invitational after 18 holes last week, just as he'd done two years prior in the inaugural edition of the biannual event.
He loves a fast start in Dubai, leading or sharing the lead six times after round one, but he's only gone on to win once when he's been leading or co-leading after 18 holes, so he makes for a fantastic back-to-lay vehicle.
As highlighted above, anyone that backed him before the off last week at almost 4/15.00 was able to lay him back at odds-on as early as Friday morning and that's a tactic I'll employ here should he dip below even money during the week.