Dubai Desert Classic: Fox fancied at 43/1 at the Emirates

• Big hitters set to shine

• 54-hole leaders have a great record

• Read my American Express preview here

Tournament History

First staged as long ago as 1989, the Dubai Desert Classic was the first event to be staged on the Arabian Peninsula. There was no event in 1991 so this is the 35^th edition.

Venue

Emirates Golf Club, Dubai, UAE

Course Details

Par 72, 7,428 yards
Stroke Index in 2023 - 70.76

Apart from the 1999 and 2000 renewals, when the tournament was staged at last week's Dubai Invitational venue, Dubai Creek Golf Club, the Majlis course, designed by Karl Litten and opened in 1988, has hosted this event since its inception.

The fairways are fairly generous and the rough isn't often brutal.

The front nine ends with some tough holes. In fact, four of the five toughest holes last year were the fifth, sixth, eighth and ninth holes and it's the stronger of the two nines by some distance.

The front nine last year, which has a par of 35, averaged 35.18 whereas the back nine, which contains three par fives, averaged 35.6, which was 1.4 strokes below its par of 37.

The Majlis is a typically exposed desert track, so the wind is very often a factor and if it gets up, the scoring is much harder than in calm conditions.

As an indication of how different the course plays in the wind, the 2020 winner, Lucas Herbert, won in only nine-under-par (the highest ever tournament aggregate score) but 12 months earlier, Bryson DeChambeau got to -24, which was the event's record low score.

The greens, that are usually set at around 11.5 on the stimpmeter, were completely renovated prior to the off two years ago and this is what Mohammed Buamim, the Emirates club's manager, told Gulf News during the renovation.

"It was discovered that the greens, in particular, were not in the condition we would like them to be and therefore decided to have them rebuilt.

"We have also taken this opportunity to return them to their original size and shape, which means that they will get bigger and by that open up more choices for interesting pin positions. I'm confident that it will improve the course significantly."

The new putting surfaces are Bermuda TifEagle and the whole course is laid to Bermuda grass. Water in play on ten holes.

Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 3:30 on Thursday in the UK

Last Eight Winners with Exchange Prices

• 2023 - Rory McIlroy -19 4.47/2
• 2022 - Victor Hovland -12 (playoff) 11.010/1
• 2021 - Paul Casey -17 25.024/1
• 2020 - Lucas Herbert -9 230.0229/1 (playoff)
• 2019 - Bryson DeChambeau -24 11.010/1
• 2018 - Li Haotong -23 180.0179/1
• 2017 - Sergio Garcia -19 22.021/1
• 2016 - Danny Willett -19 48.047/1

What Will it Take to Win the DDC?

Although the 2021 winner, Paul Casey, only ranked 24^th for Driving Distance, length off the tee has been key for years and big hitters tend to shine.

Last year's winner, Rory McIlroy, who was winning the event for a third time, ranked fourth for DD, and the 2022 winner, Victor Hovland, ranked 13^th for DD, with Rory in third ranking first.

The 2020 winner, Lucas Herbert, ranked ninth for DD with Dean Burmester and Adri Arnaus, who finished tied for third, ranking first and sixth.

Monstrously long, Bryson DeChambeau, only ranked a curiously shot 26^th for DD when he won here five years ago but the six winners before him ranked 14^th, fourth, 10^th, first, fifth and fourth.

Although Hovland ranked third for Driving Accuracy two years ago and Sergio Garcia ranked fourth seven years ago, you don't have to hit it especially straight here.

Hovland and Garcia apart, no other winner has ranked any better than 15th for fairways found, the average DA ranking of the ten winners before Hovland was just 37.1 and Rory ranked 82^nd 12 months ago!

McIlroy only ranked 24^th for Greens In Regulation and Hovland only ranked 10^th two years ago, but Casey ranked fourth in 2021. Three of the top-five ranking sixth or better and as many as 12 of the last 18 winners have ranked inside the top-five for GIR.

The 2020 and 2021 winners only ranked 22^nd and 21^st for Putting Average, and 41^st and 14^th for Strokes Gained Putting but that could have been something to do with the deterioration of the old greens as up until 2020, putting had been absolutely key.

Rory and the runner-up, Patrick Reed, ranked third and second for PA last year and the first four home ranked eighth, seventh, 18^th and first for SGP. The beaten playoff protagonist in 2022, Richard Bland, ranked first for PA and second for SGP.

The 2019 winner, DeChambeau, ranked second for PA, Li ranked first in 2018 and so did Danny Willett when he won here in 2016.

Is There an Angle In?

There are three venues that seem to correlate nicely with the Emirates - Dom Pedro Victoria, Doha, the Gary Player Country Club, and the Abu Dhabi Golf Club.

Dom Pedro Victoria hosted the Portugal Masters up until and including 2022 and there's plenty of evidence to suggest that was a tournament that correlated very nicely with this one.

It's 15 years since McIlroy played in the Portugal Masters (10^th in 2008) and the two winners before him never played the event but the 2020 winner, Lucas Herbert, finished second in Portugal in 2018. Sergio Garcia, who won here seven years ago, finished seventh in his one and only appearance there in the same year.

The 2016 winner, Danny Willett, has finished inside the top-seven there three times and the three men to win this event before McIlroy in 2015 - Alvaro Quiros, Rafa Cabrera-Bello and Stephen Gallacher, all have a top-three finish there...

In addition, Andy Sullivan, who finished alongside Cabrera-Bello in tied second here eight years ago, has finished first and second at the Portugal Masters and the 1997 DDC winner, Richard Green, has also won the Portugal Masters.

Form in the desert well worth a look

The Qatar Masters' most used venue - Doha - is a course that's well worth close inspection with regards to this event too.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout, who was beaten by Herbert in extra time three years ago, finished second there in 2019 and as many as five players have won here and at Doha - Ernie Els, Henrik Stenson, Thomas Bjorn, and the two Spaniards, Quiros and Sergio.

As many as seven players to win the Nedbank Golf Challenge at the Gary Player Country Club have won this event and five Gary Player Course winners - Bezuidenhout, Alex Noren, Lee Westwood, Martin Kaymer and Retief Goosen have finished second here.

Form in the desert holds up well so last week's result at the Dubai Creek Golf Club should provide clues too.

Form at the Abu Dhabi Golf Club, which used to host the Abu Dhabi Championship up is also a track to look at. Casey has won there twice, and at the halfway stage of the 2021 renewal, the last to be staged at the Abu Dhabi Golf Club, four of the top-six had previously won this event.

In addition to the various course correlations, links form is well worth looking at given six of the last 15 players to win this title have also won an Open Championship and that the 2022 winner, Viktor Hovland, was tied at the top with a round to go at St Andrews in 2021.

The course is fairly wind-exposed and it tends to get faster and harder as the week wares on which explains why links exponents do so well here.

Winner's Position and Price Pre-Round Four

• 2023 - Rory McIlroy - led by three 1.42/5
• 2022 - Victor Hovland - T13th trailing by six 48.047/1
• 2021 - Paul Casey - led by a stroke 1.991/1
• 2020 - Lucas Herbert - T13th trailing by six 300.0299/1
• 2019 - Bryson DeChambeau led by a stroke 1.9620/21
• 2018 - Li Haotong led by a stroke 3.711/4
• 2017 - Sergio Garcia led by three strokes 1.738/11
• 2016 - Danny Willett led by a stroke 2.6813/8

In-Play Tactics

As highlighted above in the course notes, how windy it is here is a determining factor as to how hard the course plays and it also has a huge bearing on how the tournament pans out. The 2020 winner, Herbert, won with the highest winning total (-9), whilst Hovland and Bland only got to 12-under-par 12 months ago.

And it's no coincidence that those are the only three editions in which the winners have come from off the pace...

The tricky blustery conditions caused mayhem four years ago and although they'd been up with the pace earlier in the tournament, both the playoff protagonists, Herbert and Bezuidenhout, had trailed by six with a round to go.

They finished two strokes clear of the remainder having traded at 1000.0999/1 during the final round!

Having been matched at a high of 95.094/1 in-running, Hovland finished birdie-eagle-birdie in 2022, but it still wouldn't have been enough without a poor finish from McIlroy, who was matched at a low of 1.392/5.

Alvaro Quiros' victory here in 2011 was remarkable for a number of reasons. He made three eagles, including a two on the par four second hole, and a hole-in-one during the final round, and he also made a pair of triple-bogeys.

One on day one, at the par five 10th, and one at the eighth hole on day four< but the most remarkable thing about his win was how far off the pace he had been before winning.

He trailed by eight strokes after both rounds one and two and up until 2020, that was the furthest any winner had trailed by a country mile.

Although he trailed by six after round three, Hovland started nicely enough (ninth and three back after round one, and fifth and four adrift at halfway). Mark O'Meara, who was six adrift in 2004 and Quiros, who trailed by eight in 2011, are the only winners this century that weren't within four of the lead after round one.

Herbert had sat third and two off the lead before dropping to 11^th and four back at halfway three years ago, and he's just the third tournament winner to be outside the top-ten at the halfway stage.

Quiros 12 years ago and Robert-Jan Derksen, the shock 2003 champ, who sat tied for 20^th and five off the lead, are the other two. Every other course winner here has been inside the top-seven places at halfway.

DeChambeau sat second after round one in 2019, just one behind the early pacesetter, Matthew Fitzpatrick, but he led all the way after that and the 2017 winner, Garcia, was the sixth player to win wire-to-wire.

Only two of the last 11 54-hole leaders have been beaten (Ashun Wu in 2020 and Justin Harding 2022) and in 22 of the 34 editions staged to date, the third round leader has gone on to win.

Market Leaders

The defending champions, Rory McIlroy, heads the market at just over 3/14.00 and he's been shortening in price ever since the market opened.

Following last weeks tied second at the Dubai Invitational, and in search of a fourth Dubai Desert Classic title, it's hardly surprising to see him so popular but I'm more than happy to swerve him at such a short price.

He must be wondering how on earth he didn't get across the line last week and with hindsight, he probably should have won by four or five strokes given at least three incidents cost him the title.

He made a quadruple-bogey seven on Friday, had a three-putt from two feet on Sunday, and he found water off the tee at the 72^nd hole on Sunday and he still only lost by a shot!

If he can iron out the silly mistakes, he's the one they all have to beat but anyone that wants to side with him should probably look towards the First Round Leader market, where he's the industry-best 11/112.00 favourite with the Sportsbook.

Rory has played in the UAE 39 times in total and including last week, he's ended the first round in front on ten occasions. He's only won five times.

Somewhat bizarrely, he's only gone on to win once having led or co-led after round one (here in 2019) so he makes for a great back-to-lay vehicle in this part of the world and taking odds of in excess of 10/111.00 about him leading after round one for the 11^th time in 40 starts, makes far more sense than taking 3/14.00 about him winning for a sixth time in 40 starts.

Tyrrell Hatton, who has course form figures reading MC-55-8-3-3-38-22-4-38, is next up in the betting and he makes little appeal at around 12/113.00.

It's now three years since he last won (the Abu Dhabi Championship) and he has the added handicap of flying to Dubai from Hawaii having finished 14^th in The Sentry and 13^th at the Sony Open on Sunday.

Last week's winner, Tommy Fleetwood, is a fair price given how well he performs in the desert, but he's never really shone here. This is his 13^th appearance, and he has just two top-ten finishes (10^th in 2013 and sixth in 2018).

He missed the cut after his first two victories as a pro but he's more than capable of playing well in his following start nowadays.

He's never won back-to-back but he finished second and fifth in the DP World Tour Championship after his last two victories at the Nedbank Challenge in 2019 and 2022 and he'll be feeling very good after the way he finished on Sunday with back-to-back birdies at the last two holes.

Selection

As a great links exponent and a winner of the Ras Al Khaimah Classic, I looked very carefully at Ryan Fox before the off last week but was put off by his poor record in his first starts of the year.

As it transpired, I did the right thing to swerve him as he did start slowly, with two rounds of 70 but he signed off the event with back-to-back 68s to finish 14^th and while that isn't overly impressive, he putted very nicely, ranking fourth for Putting Average and eighth for Strokes Gained: Putting.

In seven previous visits, last year's 20^th is his best effort so he doesn't boast a great bank of course form but as a big hitter who plays links and desert golf well, there's no reason to think he can't play well here.

And it's perhaps worth noting that he was sitting 11^th with a round to go last year before a 73 on Sunday saw him slip down the leaderboard. I thought 44.043/1 was fair.

Read my American Express preview here

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