Corales Puntacana Championship: Gerard is worth chancing at 59/1

• Longshots shine in the Dominican Republic

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Tournament History

This will be the eighth edition of the Corales Puntacana Championship but it's only the sixth time it will feature on the PGA Tour. The first two editions, won by Dominic Bozzelli and Nate Lashley, were held on the Korn Ferry Tour.
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The Corales Puntacana Championship is an opposite field event in the same week as the WGC Match Play - which I've previewed here.

The Corales Puntacana Championship is the first event on the PGA Tour to be staged in the Dominican Republic.

Venue

The Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship, Corales Golf Club, Punta Cana, Dominican Republic.

Course Details

Par 72, 7,670 yards
Stroke Average in 2022 - 71.3

The 2010 Tom Fazio designed Corales Course is set among natural cliffs, coralina quarries and ocean coves, adjacent to the Caribbean Sea.

Six holes play alongside the Caribbean, culminating in the three-hole "Devil's Elbow" finishing stretch that showcases a dramatic forced carry over the Bay of Corales at the par four 18th. Each of the three holes averaged over par again last year but the par three 11th ranked the toughest - averaging 3.23.

The Corales Course is a very long Paspalum course with wide, flat, generous fairways and despite its length, it's an easy course for touring professionals. The greens are set up to be slow (usually no more than 11 on Stimpmeter) because of the course's proximity to the coast and its only real defence is the wind.

Three players shot ten-under-par 62s in the inaugural edition and the winner, Brice Garnett, opened-up with a nine-under-par 63 in 2018. The 2019 victor, Graeme McDowell, fired back-to-back 64s in rounds two and three so low scores are out there if the wind doesn't blow too hard.

Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

No coverage in the UK

First Seven Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2022 - Chad Ramey -17 85.084/1
2021 - Joel Dahmen -12 50.049/1
2020 - Hudson Swafford -18 300.0299/1
2019 - Graeme McDowell -18 80.079/1
2018 - Brice Garnett -18 80.079/1
2017 - Nate Lashley -20
2016 - Dominic Bozzelli -24

What Will it Take to Win the Corales Puntacana Championship?

We don't have any Strokes Gained data for this event so looking at the more traditional stats is all we can do, and we don't have any stats at all for the first two editions when it was a Korn Ferry Tour event.

The last five winners have ranked 51st, 12th, 17th, 53rd and 51st for Driving Distance and 14th, 14th, 40th, 31st and 20th for Driving Accuracy so, neither driving metric looks especially relevant.

Although the winner, Chad Ramey, only ranked 21st for Greens In Regulation last year, the two men tied for second, Alex Smalley and Ben Martin, ranked first and third and that was a very important stat in 2021 with the first 12 home all ranking inside the top-12 for GIR but the three winners between 2018 and 2020 only ranked 24th, 16th and 25th and Putting Average has been far and away the most important stat.

The last two winners, Ramey and Joel Dahmen, both ranked second for Putting Average, the 2020 winner, Hudson Swafford, only ranked fifth for PA, despite not making a single three-putt all week long but the two winners before him both ranked first so it's basically just a putting contest.

Is There an Angle In?

A number of PGA Tour events are staged at courses similar to this. The Sony Open, the RBC Heritage and the RSM Classic are all held on coastal, wind-affected tracks but the tournaments that correlate the best are the now defunct World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba and the recently staged Puerto Rico Open...

El Camaleon, the home of what was called the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba in Mexico, and the Coco Beach Golf Course, the host course in Puerto Rico, like this venue, are both wind-affected Paspalum grass tracks whereas the other three tournament venues, Waialae Country Club (Sony Open), Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage) and Sea Island Resort (RSM Classic) are all Bermuda.

The 2019 winner, McDowell, in addition to his US Open win in 2010, at another coastal course, Pebble Beach, has only won two other PGA Tour events - the RBC Heritage and the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba and Swafford gave the Sony link a boost. He's finished inside the top-ten at Waialae three times.

If you fancy digging even deeper, Garnett's two Web.com Tour wins came at the Utah Championship and the Portland Open and looking at the top-tens at those two events, plenty of the same names keep appearing, so they look like worth checking out too.

Is There an Identikit Winner?

The inaugural winner, Dominic Bozzelli, was in his mid-20s and last year's winner, Ramey was 29 when he won here but the five winners in-between were all in their 30s and the last five winners, since the tournament was elevated to a PGA Tour event, have all been outsiders.

Having been matched at a high of 110.0109/1, Ramey went off at 85.084/1 last year, G-Mac and Garnett were 80.079/1 chances before the off, and Swafford was matched at a high of 370.0369/1 before going off at around 300.0299/1.

Dahmen, who was a 50.049/1 chance, is the shortest priced winner since the event was elevated to the PGA Tour.

Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2022 - Chad Ramey - solo second, trailing by two 5.85/1
2021 - Joel Dahmen - tied for the lead 4.77/2
2020 - Hudson Swafford - solo second, trailing by two 6.411/2
2019 - Graeme McDowell - led by one 3.1511/5
2018 - Brice Garnett - led by two 1.9310/11
2017 - Nate Lashley - trailed by two
2016 - Dominic Bozzelli - tied for the lead

In-Play Tactics

Having sat tied for 15th and for adrift, Ramey sat third at halfway and second with a round to go. Dahmen was never outside the top-four or more than a stroke off the lead in 2021, Swafford led after rounds one and two before being headed after round three but he sat solo second through 54 holes, trailing by just two in 2020, and Garnett shot the lowest round of the week on Thursday and was never headed after that in 2018, but a slow start has been overcome in all of the other three editions.

Dominic Bozzelli sat tied for 45th after the opening round, Nate Lashley was tied 53rd, and G-Mac was matched at a high of 230.0229/1 after his first round 73 had seen him trailing by seven in a tie for 81st! A slow start is clearly not the end of the world and I wouldn't get too alarmed if your picks aren't right up with the pace straight away.

Bozzelli was still four back at halfway but he'd moved up to fifth and Lashley was eighth and still five adrift through 36 holes in 2017 but G-Mac moved all the way up to seventh and only three off the lead after the first of two back-to-back 64s in round two.

A slow start can clearly be overcome but all seven winners have been up with the pace with a round to go and two strokes is the furthest any winner has trailed by after 54 holes. And four of the seven winners were leading or tied for the lead with a round to go.

Market Leaders

Having followed up his respectable 27^th place in the Players Championship with a top-five finish at the Valspar Championship last week, Wyndham Clark heads an open-looking market.

Clark was 22^nd on debut last year after a run of five straight missed cuts but it was no surprise to see the course suit him. The closest he's come to getting off the mark on the PGA Tour was in the Bermuda Championship in 2020, when he lost a playoff to Brian Gay.

Clark's chance is fair and obvious but he's yet to win on the PGA Tour and he's short enough at around 10/1. As is the second favourite Thomas Detry.

Without a top-20 finish in 2023 and without a victory on either the DP World or PGA Tours, Detry is far too short, although the course suits him too. He has course form figures reading 33-33-13-15.

Detry's only top-10 finish on the PGA Tour also came at the blustery Royal Port Golf Course when he emulated Clark in October by finishing runner-up to Seamus Power in the Bermuda Championship.

Selection

I've got two selections at this tournament for the Find Me a 100 Winner column but for now my sole selection is the hugely promising 23-year-old - Ryan Gerard.

With a victory in Canada, two other top-four finishes there and a third placed finish on the Korn Ferry Tour, Gerard had already had a decent seven months. But he exploded on the world stage when he finished fourth in the Honda Classic last month after Monday Qualifying.

Gerard followed that with an 11^th place finish in Puerto Rico so he's already shown an aptitude for just this sort of test and I'm prepared to overlook last week's slightly disappointing 71^st at the Valspar.

He's a sporting price for such a promising prospect at 60.059/1.

Selection:

Ryan Gerard @ 60.059/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter