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RBC Canadian Open: Trust Todd to take to St. Georges

Steven Rawlings
07 June 2022
5 min read

Brendon Todd - fancied to go well in Canada

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With just over a week to go before the US Open, the PGA Tour pops over the border for the Canadian Open and our man's back with his in-depth preview here...

"I was very surprised to be able to back Brendon Todd at a triple figure price following his third place finish in the Charles Schwab Challenge last time out."

Tournament History

The Canadian Open dates all the way back to 1904 and this will be the 111th edition. It's the third oldest national open and prior to the establishment of the PGA Tour it was one of the most prestigious tournaments in the world.

The Canadian Open was once referred to as the unofficial fifth major but having been played in the week immediately following the Open Championship, it hasn't always been easy to attract the marquee names of late.

Due to the pandemic, it's now three years since the last edition, won by Rory McIlroy at Hamilton, and that renewal attracted a decent field due to a move in the schedule. We again return to the tournament's new slot and once again we've got a very fine field assembled with five of the world's top-nine players in attendance.

The tournament returns to St. George's Golf and Country Club for the seventh time and for the first time in 12 years.

Venue

St. Georges Golf and Country Club, Etobicoke, Toronto, Ontario.

Course Details

Par 70, 7,014 yards

Since last used in 2010, the Stanley Thompson designed St. Georges has been renovated with the help of Canadian architect, Ian Andrew, who describes the course as "the best in Canada".

All the bunkers were updated, and the greens were redesigned to reflect the original 1929 designs from Thompson. They were also changed to bentgrass and they're expected to run at around 12.5 on the Stimpmeter.

St. Georges is a tight, tree-lined course with small, elevated, and undulating greens and a somewhat quirky layout. There are five par threes, and four of the them measure in excess of 200 yards, seven of the par fours stretch to at least 449 yards but none of the par fives are taxing.

ST GEORGES TORONTO 1 2022.jpg

With the US Open just a week away, St. Georges should prove an ideal prep with the rough allowed to grow to predict scoring.

Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting with Red Button coverage at 11:45 on Thursday.

Last Five Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2020 & 2021 cancelled due to the pandemic
2019 - Rory McIlroy -22 13.012/1
2018 - Dustin Johnson -23 7.413/2
2017 - Jhonattan Vegas -21 (playoff) 180.0179/1
2016 - Jhonattan Vegas -12 150.0149/1
2015 - Jason Day -17 10.09/1

What Will it Take to Win the Canadian Open?

St. Georges has hosted the event five times previously but given the first four occasions were between 1933 and 1968, we only really have the last occasion, in 2010, to look back on for clues. Here's the top-three from 12 years ago.

2010 Canadian Open
1 Carl Pettersson -14 DA 9 DD 57 GIR 48 SC 21 PA 4
2 Dean Wilson -13 DA 23 DD 50 GIR 52 SC 2 PA 6
3 Luke Donald -12 DA 23 DD 27 GIR 39 SC 1 PA 25

Stats Key
DA = Driving Accuracy
DD = Driving Distance
GIR = Greens In Regulation
SC = Scrambling
PA = Putting Average

As you'd expect given the length and nature of the course, Driving Distance wasn't a key stat.

Charley Hoffman, who was one of nine players tied for fourth, ranked first for DD but the first two home ranked 57th and 50th and ten of the top-12 ranked 25th or worse for DD.

Scrambling and putting were more important than finding fairways and greens 12 years ago but can we rely too heavily on the figures from just one renewal? Probably not.

Although the winning score was only 14-under-par, Pettersson broke the course record with a ten-under-par 60 in round three and he absolutely bossed the par fives, playing them in ten-under-par for the week.

Is There an Angle In?

The RBC Heritage at Harbour Town looks like a great place to start.

Pettersson won there two years after winning here, Luke Donald has finished runner-up there five times and Matt Kuchar, who finished tied for fourth, won there in 2014.

The recently staged Charles Schwab Challenge is another event staged at a course that appears to correlate nicely (Colonial Country Club) and Sedgefield Country Club, the hose course for the Wyndham Championship, also correlates nicely.

Keep a close eye on the US Open market

As was the case three years ago, the US Open follows the Canadian Open so watch that market carefully as anyone in-contention here will shorten up dramatically for the year's third major.

Gary Woodland won the US Open in 2019 but he sat out the Canadian Open having finished down the field at the Memorial Tournament.

Should we steer clear of the Canadians?

Corey Conners and to a lesser extent, Adam Hadwin, are well-fancied this week but they may be best swerved given no Canadian has won this event since Pat Fletcher way back in 1954.

The locals tend to contend. Hadwin began the final round trailing by just a stroke three years ago but faded to finish sixth and Mackenzie Hughes was 8th in 2018 but the pressure often gets to the locals.

Mike Weir was matched at 1.041/25 in-running back in 2004, having led by three with a round to go, so if any of them get into contention again this time around they may well be worth taking on.

In-Play Tactics

The weather forecasts suggest those drawn PM-AM may get the better of it this week.

Heavy rain is predicted to fall on Thursday morning, accompanied by some strong winds, so (potentially) the later you start on day one the better.

Be careful not to jump in too early over the first two days, especially on those that start on the back-nine. Because of the layout, those that play (predominantly) the back-nine first will actually start on the ninth instead of the tenth and given nine and 11 are both par fives, it would be easy to get carried away and think someone's started brilliantly when in reality, plenty of players will be two-under-through three.

At the 2010 edition here, we witnessed plenty of change on the leaderboard and an off the pace winner certainly can't be ruled out.

Pettersson trailed by nine strokes after rounds one and two and he was still four adrift of the 54-hole leader, Dean Wilson, with a round to go. And three of the nine men to finish tied for fourth rallied on Sunday from outside the top-40.

Market Leaders

With four wins in his last ten starts, world number one, Scottie Scheffler clearly commands respect but he does have to bounce back following his disappointing defeat at the Charles Schwab Challenge, where he was matched at a low of 1.75/7 having led by a couple with a round to go.

Scottie Scheffler at the Charles Schwab.jpg

Given his rapid rise in stature and the fact that we haven't visited Canada in three years, this is the first time Scheffler's played in the country.

The defending champ, Rory McIlroy, and the US PGA Champion, Justin Thomas are vying for second favouritism behind Scheffler and of the two, I prefer Thomas.

Thomas missed the cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge last time out but that was understandable after his victory at Southern Hills, and I expect he'll contend again here. As he did at the Byron Nelson in the week preceding the US PGA.

Cameron Smith is quite well-fancied at around 14.013/1 and his short game is perfect for the venue but he too needs to lift himself after he fell away over the weekend at the Memorial Tournament.

Selection

I'm waiting on the weather and the draw before contemplating any further wagers but I was very surprised to be able to back Brendon Todd at a triple figure price following his third place finish in the Charles Schwab Challenge last time out.

This looks just his sort of test and if he plays like he did at Colonial, where he ranked first for Driving Accuracy, fifth for Scrambling and fourth for Strokes Gained putting, he's going to be there or thereabouts.

Selection:
Brendon Todd @ 120.0119/1

I'll be back later today with a preview of the Scandinavian Mixed on the DP World Tour.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter