Tournament History
Originally known as the British PGA Championship and first staged in 1955, the BMW PGA Championship has been the DP World Tour's flagship event since its inception in 1972.
The tournament used to be staged in May but when the US PGA Championship moved to May in 2019, the DP World Tour made the sensible decision to move the BMW PGA to an autumnal slot and it worked. The quality of the field improved immediately and last year's winner, Billy Horschel, hopped across the Pond to scoop up the prize.
With the PGA Tour on a two-week break in-between seasons, it's an ideal opportunity to attract some of the PGA Tour players but the qualifying criteria (top 60 in the Official World Rankings on 18/7 and 22/8) has caused quite an issue as controversially, a raft of LIV Tour players are in the line-up.
Following the Abu Dhabi Championship in January, the BMW PGA Championship is the second of three Rolex Series events to be staged this year, with the final one - the DP World Tour Championship - being staged in two months' time.
Venue
Wentworth (West Course), Surrey, England
Course Details
Par 72 - 7,267 yards
Stroke Index in 2021 - 71.07
Designed by Harry Colt and opened in 1926, the West Course, occasionally referred to as Burma Road, has undergone a series of alterations in recent years, under the supervision of Ernie Els.
All the greens were remodelled in 2009/10 and the par 5 finishing hole was radically changed. At the mercy of modern equipment, the old 18th was an almost given birdie and a great eagle chance but now, with a large stream snaking its way in front of the green, it's a stunning risk/reward finishing hole.
Wentworth is a tight, fairly flat, tree-lined heathland course with tricky-to-read greens that were all changed before the 2017 renewal. The bentgrass/poa unua blend was replaced with pure bentgrass to get a truer and faster roll and a brand-new sub-air system was installed throughout the course to help keep the greens fast and dry.
In addition to the changes made to the greens, the bunkering throughout the course was changed to try and restore the course closer to its original Harry Colt ethos. It was felt that previous reworks had produced bunkering that was just too deep and not in keeping with the original design philosophy.
Wentworth used to stage the now defunct Volvo World Match Play at this time of year so high-class autumnal golf at Surry's finest is nothing new.
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, beginning at 09:00 on Thursday
Last Seven Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices
2021 - Billy Horschel -19 36.035/1
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton -19 22.021/1
2019 - Danny Willett -20 80.079/1
2018 - Francesco Molinari -17 22.021/1
2017 - Alex Noren -11 22.021/1
2016 - Chris Wood -9 70.069/1
2015 -Byeong-Hun An -21 180.0179/1
What Will it Take to Win the BMW PGA Championship?
Last year's victor, Horschel, ranked 40th for Driving Distance and 13th for Driving Accuracy and I'd slightly favour accuracy over distance off the tee here but neither are especially key stats.
In the last nine years we've seen winners rank first (Byeong-Hun An 2015) and 70th for Driving Distance (Matteo Manassero 2013) and as high as fourth and as low as 47th for Driving Accuracy.
Horschel topped the Greens In Regulation rankings and he's the tenth winner in 16 years to rank inside the top-four for that stat and two of the three players tied for second, Laurie Canter and Kiradech Aphibarnrat, who both traded at odds-on, ranked third and sixth for GIR.
Scrambling has been a key stat of late. Horschel ranked third 12 months ago and a year earlier, Tyrrell Hatton won ranking first. Danny Willet only ranked eighth in 2019 but the best three scramblers all finished inside the top-seven, Francesco Molinari scrambled better than anyone else when winning here four years ago and the first five home in 2017 all ranked inside the top-eight for Scrambling.
Hatton putted nicely enough, ranking 11th for Strokes Gained Putting and 14th for Putting Average two years ago but Horschel only ranked 42nd and 29th and prior to the changes to the greens, before the 2017 edition, several players took the title despite putting fairly poorly. Anders Hansen ranked just 46th for Putting Average when he won the second of his two titles in 2007 and Simon Khan putted even worse in 2010, when he ranked 55th.
Is There an Angle In?
This a nuanced track and past course form counts for plenty. Horschel had finished fourth two years prior to his win on his only prior appearance and year after year we see the same faces in-the-mix. Most winners have previous form around Wentworth, even if it dates back a few years...
The 2020 winner, Hatton, had Wentworth figures reading 38-46-7-30-MC-MC (with the seventh-place dating back to 2016), and the 2019 champ, Willett, had finished fifth here on debut nine years earlier and he'd finished third in 2016.
Having finished inside the top-nine places in four of his five previous visits, Molinari won here four years ago, a year after finishing second to Alex Noren, who finished third behind Molinari when defending, with the 2014 winner, McIlroy, finishing second! And back in 2017, three of the top-five had finished at least eighth previously.
Luke Donald (back-to-back in 2011 and 2012) was the last multiple event winner but multiple winners are fairly common. Peter Alliss, Colin Montgomerie, and Bernard Langer have all won the event three times (Monty did in consecutive years between 1998 and 2000) and Nick Faldo has won it four times. And the places are usually dominated by course specialists too.
From a course correlation perspective, it's impossible to ignore how many players have played well here and at Crans, the venue of the Omega European Masters two weeks ago.
The likes of Nick Faldo, Seve Ballesteros, Colin Montgomerie, Luke Donald, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Danny Willett, and Alex Noren have all won both events at least once and there are numerous examples of players winning one and finishing second in the other or finishing second in both. That list includes Francesco Molinari, Lee Westwood, Ernie Els, and Trevor Immelmann. And Crans specialist, Thomas Bjorn, really should have won this event back in 2015 when he led by five after three rounds.
Previous Rolex Series winners worthy of close inspection
As this is the second of only three Rolex Series events this season, I've listed all the previous series winners to date below. The Scottish Open apart, which wasn't a Rolex Series event this year, they tend to go to fancied players.
When taking this title 12 months ago, Horschel was the first American to win a Rolex Series event but he was quickly followed by another when Collin Morikawa won the DP World Championship.
Rolex Series Winners
BMW PGA Championship 2017 - Alex Noren 22.021/1 1/2
Open de France 2017 - Tommy Fleetwood 25.024/1
Irish Open 2017 - Jon Rahm 18.017/1 1/3
Scottish Open 2017 - Rafa Cabrera-Bello 65.064/1
Italian Open 2017 - Tyrrell Hatton 20.019/1
Turkish Airlines Open 2017 - Justin Rose 9.28/1 1/2
Nedbank Golf Challenge 2017 - Branden Grace 18.017/1
DP World Championship 2017 - Jon Rahm 13.012/1 2/3
BMW PGA Championship 2018 - Francesco Molinari 22.021/1
Italian Open 2018 - Thorbjorn Olesen 130.0129/1
Open de France 2018 - Alex Noren 19.537/2 2/2
Irish Open 2018 - Russell Knox 27.026/1
Scottish Open 2018 - Brandon Stone 1000.0999/1
Turkish Airlines Open 2018 - Justin Rose 5.85/1 2/2
Nedbank Golf Challenge 2018 - Lee Westwood 55.054/1
DP World Championship 2018 - Danny Willett 150.0149/1 1/2
Abu Dhabi Championship 2019 - Shane Lowry 90.089/1
Irish Open 2019 - Jon Rahm 10.09/1 3/3
Scottish Open 2019 - Bernd Wiesberger 46.045/1
BMW PGA Championship 2019 - Danny Willett 80.079/1 2/2
Italian Open 2019 - Bernd Wiesberger 55.054/1 2/2
Turkish Airlines Open 2019 - Tyrrell Hatton 20.019/1 2/2
Nedbank Golf Challenge 2019 - Tommy Fleetwood 20.019/1 2/2
DP World Championship 2019 - Jon Rahm 8.07/1 4/4
Abu Dhabi Championship 2020 - Lee Westwood 140.0139/1 2/2
Scottish Open 2020 - Aaron Rai 110.0109/1
BMW PGA Championship 2019 - Tyrrell Hatton 22.021/1 3/3
DP World Championship 2019 - Matthew Fitzpatrick 22.021/1
Abu Dhabi Championship 2021 - Tyrrell Hatton 14.527/2 4/4
Scottish Open 2021 - Min Woo Lee 330.0329/1
BMW PGA Championship 2021 - Billy Horschel 36.035/1
DP World Championship 2021- Collin Morikawa 11.010/1
Abu Dhabi Championship 2022 - Thomas Pieters 50.049/1
Is There an Identikit Winner?
It's been a real mixed bag, price wise. The last five winners have all gone off at double-figure prices and three of the last five were very well fancied but historically, it's been a cracking event for outsiders.
A second win for Denmark's Anders Hansen (2007) and victories for Simon Khan (2010) and Matteo Manassero (2013) were unexpected and very few saw Byeong-Hun An's victory coming seven years ago. And there was a four year stretch at the turn of the century when the winners were almost impossible to predict. After Monty had won his three in-a-row, Andrew Oldcorn, Anders Hansen, Ignacio Garrido and Scott Drummond all left punters scratching their heads.
I wouldn't put anyone off backing an outsider or two given those results this century and I'll be back tomorrow with the Find Me a 100 Winner Column.
The English have a really good record in this event and with Luke Donald winning back-to-back in 2011 and 2012, seven different Englishman have won half of the last 16 renewals.
Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four
2021 - Billy Horschel - tied third, trailing by two 7.87/1
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton - led by three 1.9620/21
2019 - Danny Willett - tied for the lead 7.06/1
2018 - Francesco Molinari - tied for the lead 3.259/4
2017 - Alex Noren T23 - trailing by seven 220.0219/1
2016 - Chris Wood T5 - trailing by three 16.531/2
2015 - Byeong-Hun An - tied for the lead 3.711/4
In-Play Tactics
As many as three of the last seven winners have been tied for the lead with a round to go but all three were the least likely of the leaders to win through 54 holes.
Back in 2015, Byeong-Hun An was tied with Molinari, who was tied with Rory before the final round in 2018 and three years ago, Danny Willett entered the final round tied at the top with Jon Rahm.
Hatton was the favourite before round four two years ago but the favourite before the final round has been beaten in seven of the last eight years and we've seen some quite remarkable off-the-pace winners here over the years...
For the majority of tournaments, I stress the importance of being up in the van throughout, getting a fast start and being up with the leaders, but not here.
I've gone as far back as 1990 and other than Hatton in 2020, who was tied for the lead, the only leader or co-leader after round one to go on to take the title is Luke Donald. He went wire-to-wire in 2011, before beating Lee Westwood in a play-off.
Although in the mix all weekend, Horschel hit a high of 170.0169/1 after a slow start on Thursday which had seen him play the first 12 holes in two-over-par.
Paul Casey won doggedly after hitting the front at halfway in 2009, as did David Howell in 2006, and between 2000 and 2002, all three 36-hole winners went on to convert but the leaders are always vulnerable here and I'll definitely be looking closely at those off the pace with a round to go again.
Noren was matched at 220.0219/1 on Sunday morning five years ago, as he sat outside the top-20 with a round to go. That's as far off the lead as any winner has been at Wentworth through 54 holes since 1990 but he was the third winner in eight years to trail by seven strokes with a round to go!
Simon Khan sat tied for 13th and seven back before his win in 2010 and Rory McIlroy trailed Thomas Bjorn by seven in 2014 (Bjorn was matched at just 1.21/5). Between 1990 and 2006, 12 of the 16 winners led or co-led with a round to go and Tony Johnstone, in 1992, was the only winner not to be inside the front three places through 54 holes. He sat tied for fifth and three off the lead, but it's been a completely different kettle of fish since David Howell's victory in 2006.
In addition to the three aforementioned winners from seven adrift, we've seen victories from three, four and five strokes back. It's not going to happen every year and it hasn't in each of the last three but being patient in-running and waiting for Sunday to play the chasers at big prices has been a great way to play the tournament of late.
In addition to all those big off-the-pace winners, we nearly witnessed another huge comeback win in 2016 when the runner-up, Rikard Karlberg, began the final day fully eight strokes adrift of third round leader, Scott Hend (another player with Crans form). He was matched at 1000.0999/1 in-running but he'll look back and rue his bogey at the 16th hole as he finished up losing by one having been matched at just 7.87/1.
The BMW PGA Championship is over four rounds and four days, just like any other ordinary stroke play event on the DP or PGA Tour, but it somehow feels like a longer tournament than most and the winning line feels like it's a long way off.
In the last eight years, we've had five players trade at odds-on and lose before the fourth round has even begun. And two of them went odds-on during round two!
Just like Bjorn in 2014 and Molinari in 2015, Jon Rahm was matched at odds-on during round three in 2019 (1.422/5) and Rory McIlroy hit the front as early as Friday morning in 2018, when he went as low as 1.548/15. And he was the second player in three years to go odds-on during round two and fail to get home! Danny Willet hit 1.855/6 on Friday in 2016.
Late drama is often the norm and two players traded at odds-on on Sunday last year and got beat. Kiradech Aphibarnrat, who's one of Matt Cooper's each-way fancies this year, was matched at 1.618/13 and Laurie Canter 1.511/2.
The change from May to September might, in the fullness of time, see a change to the trends as the course shouldn't firm up as much in autumn as it did in the spring but backing longshots from off the pace here through 54 holes isn't a strategy I'm willing to throw away just yet.
Market Leaders
The brand-new FedEx Cup champion and the 2014 winner, Rory McIlroy, heads the market but he has a mixed record at Wentworth with course form figures that read MC-5-48-24-MC-MC-1-MC-2-9 and I'm happy to swerve him at around 6/1.
Rory has been one of the most vocal opponents of LIV Golf and I can see the presence of so many of Greg Norman's men in the field being an unwanted distraction.
As already stated, Jon Rahm traded at odds-on when finishing second here on debut back in 2019 and this is his first appearance since.
The Spaniard finally found his putting touch at East Lake two weeks ago so it would be no surprise to see him go one better this time around.
He clearly took to the track three years ago and I thought he was worth a small wager with the Sportsbook at 9/1 in the Enhanced Win Only market.
The US Open winner, Matt Fitzpatrick is next up but with ordinary Wentworth numbers that read 47-12-8-46-7-20 don't inspire and although Shane Lowry has some great course form (four top-six finishes from 12 starts) he doesn't represent any value at 19.018/1.
Viktor Hovland has been under a bit of a cloud since finishing fourth in the Open Championship (shot 74 on Sunday) but he was the favourite 12 months ago when finishing 49th (also finished 11th on debut in 2019) so a case can certainly be made at odds in excess of 20/1 given he's already bagged a couple of DP World Tour events.
Selections
In addition to a small bet on Jon Rahm, I've also had a modest bet on the 2020 winner, Tyrrell Hatton, who looks fractionally over-priced at 38.037/1.
Hatton's Scrambling and putting stats have been solid over the last couple of months and although his last two outings haven't been spectacular (31st in the FedEx St Jude and 23rd in the BMW Championship), his 11th in the Open and eighth in the Wyndham before that were eye-catching performances.
Selections:
Jon Rahm 9/1 Enhanced Won Only (Sportsbook)
Tyrrell Hatton @ 38.037/1
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter