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Driving Distance and Putting the key stats in 2021
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Could Congaree provide the clues?
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Read my Danish Championship preview
Tournament History
The BMW Championship was introduced to the PGA Tour schedule in 2007 when it replaced the Western Open to become the third leg of the brand-new FedEx Cup Playoff Series. The Western Open dated all the way back to 1899 and only the Open Championship and US Open date back further.
The format of the Playoff Series changed in 2019 with only three events instead of four so following the FedEx St Jude Championship at TPC Southwind, the BMW Championship is restricted to the top 50 in the FedEx Cup standings only. Following this event, the standings are recalculated again and only the top 30 advance to the series-deciding Tour Championship at East Lake next week.
The BMW Championship is a nomadic event and this year we return to the 2021 venue, Caves Valley Golf Club in Maryland.
Venue
Caves Valley Golf Club, Owings Mills, Maryland
Course Details
Par 72 - 7, 542 yards
Stroke Average in 2021 - 69.2
The Tom Fazio designed Caves Valley Course opened in 1991 and was renovated in 2020.
In addition to hosting this event four years ago, it also hosted the 2002 Senior U.S. Open, the 2014 International Crown event on the LPGA and the 2017 Constellation Senior Players Championship on the Champions Tour.
The 2005 NCAAs and the 2007 Palmer Cup were also held at Caves Valley.
At over 7,500 yards Caves Valley is a long course with fescue-bluegrass rough (set to four inches in 2021) and bentgrass fairways. The smaller than average bentgrass greens were set to 12.5 on the stimpmeter four years ago.
Weather Forecast
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 14:15 on Thursday
Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices
2024 - Keegan Bradley -12 220.0219/1
2023 - Viktor Hovland -17 21.020/1
2022 - Patrick Cantlay -14 22.021/1
2021 - Patrick Cantlay -27 (playoff) 27.026/1
2020 - Jon Rahm -4 (playoff) 12.011/1
2019 - Justin Thomas -25 16.015/1
2018 - Keegan Bradley -20 (playoff) 210.0209/1
2017 - Marc Leishman -23 55.054/1
What Will it Take to Win the BMW Championship?
Patrick Cantlay got the better of Bryson DeChambeau after an ill-tempered and protracted playoff back in 2021, eventually taking the title with a birdie at the sixth extra hole after both men had amassed a colossal 27-under-par total. How much we can take away from that result is debatable given the course played very soft after rain.
Cantlay shot 63 on Friday and three rounds of 66 while DeChambeau shot 60 in round two, so rain-softened Caves Valley was far from a demanding test.
For the record, here's the top five with both traditional and Strokes Gained stats.
Patrick Cantlay -27 - DD: 17, DA: 33, GIR: 2, SC: 57, PA: 1
Bryson DeChambeau -27 - DD: 1, DA: 57, GIR: 21, SC: 46, PA: 2
Sungjae Im -23 - DD: 55, DA: 2, GIR: 21, SC: 5, PA: 3
Rory McIlroy -22 - DD: 2, DA: 14, GIR: 21, SC: 17, PA: 14
Erik van Rooyen -21 - DD: 29, DA: 14, GIR: 2 SC: 62, PA: 30
DD - Driving Distance
DA - Driving Accuracy
GIR - Greens In Regulation
SC - Scrambling
PA - Putting Average
And here's the Strokes Gained stats...
Patrick Cantlay -27 - SG:T: 15, SG:A: 28, SG:ATG: 47, SG:T2G: 28, SG:P: 1
Bryson DeChambeau -27 - SG:T: 1, SG:A: 43, SG:ATG: 46, SG:T2G: 3, SG:P: 2
Sungjae Im -23 - SG:T: 11, SG:A: 7, SG:ATG: 24, SG:T2G: 5, SG:P: 4
Rory McIlroy -22 - SG:T: 2, SG:A: 42, SG:ATG: 14, SG:T2G: 4, SG:P: 10
Erik van Rooyen -21 - SG:T: 8, SG:A: 1, SG:ATG: 35, SG:T2G: 1, SG:P: 18
SG:T - Strokes Gained: Tee
SG:A - Strokes Gained on Approach
SG:ATG - Strokes Gained Around the Green
SG:T2G - Strokes Gained Tee to Green
SG:P: Strokes Gained Putting
Greens In Regulation and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green were fairly key stats four years ago but what is immediately apparent looking at the numbers is that the top-three all putted brilliantly and that length off the tee was far more important than accuracy.
Other Fazio tracks to consider
Tom and George Fazio designed the original layout at PGA National - home of the Cognizant Classic - but that course was completely redesigned by Jack Nicklaus. The only Tom Fazio designed course that we visit every season at present on the PGA Tour is the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship course in the Dominican Republic. But he's been responsible for redesigns at Quail Hollow (home of the Wells Fargo Championship), Riviera Country Club (Genesis Invitational) and the Seaside Course at Sea Island which hosts the RSM Classic.
The Fazio-designed Congaree Golf Club hosted the Palmetto Championship in 2021 and the CJ Cup in 2022 and Fazio was also responsible for the redesign of Kasumigaseki Country Club which hosted the Olympics in 2021 when Xander Schauffele won the gold medal.
It's old form now but Fazio designed Conway Farms in Chicago at the same time as he worked on Caves Valley and Conway Farms has hosted this event three times previously. Zach Johnson won there in 2013, Jason Day won the 2015 edition by six strokes and fellow Aussie Marc Leishman won there in 2017 by five shots.
Is There an Angle In?
Keegan Bradley wasn't in great form last year or in 2018 when he won the event for a first time. Cantlay had current form figures reading 13-MC-23-11 before he won here in 2021, although he had won the Memorial Tournament three months earlier, but being in fair recent form has been almost essential in this event.
Most winners are in fair form, and the first 11 tournament winners had all finished inside the top 10 in one of their two previous starts.
Last year's three Playoff Series events were won by Hideki Matsuyama, Bradley and Scottie Scheffler but Viktor Hovland won both this event and the Tour Championship in 2023. We've now seen someone win two FedEx Cup Playoff events in nine of the last 12 years, and on 12 occasions in total, so siding with last week's FedEx St Jude Championship may make sense.
Is There an Identikit Winner?
Keegan Bradley was very much a surprise winner seven years ago, when the top 70 in the FedEx Cup standings still qualified, and he was readily dismissed before the off again 12 months ago, going off at 210.0209/1, but he's the only big outsider to take the title so far.
Looking back over the event's history, with the possible exception of Camilo Villegas 16 years ago, whose price I can't recall or find, we hadn't seen any wild outsiders before Bradley. Seven of the last 10 winners have been very prominent in the market.
Marc Leishman was matched at 55.054/1 before the off eight years ago but the two winners before him were first and second favourites. Justin Thomas was the third favourite in 2019, the second favourite, Jon Rahm, beat the favourite, Dustin Johnson, in extra time in 2020 and the last three winners before Bradley last year were priced at between 21.020/1 and 27.026/1.
In-Play Tactics
We don't have much history to look back on but for what it's worth, Don Pooley got the better of Tom Watson in a playoff at the 2002 US Senior Open here, having trailed by six at halfway. Scott McCarron caught and passed the 36 and 54 hole leader Bernhard Langer at the 2017 Senior Players Championship, having sat tied for third and six off the lead with a round to go. But it was a completely different story in this event back in 2021.
With the course soft and the scoring super low, up with the pace was the place to be and nine of the top 11 after 72 holes had been inside the top 10 after round one.
Alex Noren, who finished tied for ninth, sat tied for 47th after round one. The runner-up, DeChambeau, was tied for 19th , four off the lead, before his 60 on Friday saw him leading the eventual winner, Cantlay, by a stroke at halfway. Those two were tied at the top after 54 holes.
Although the scoring was easy, we still witnessed plenty of in-play drama in 2021. Cantlay hit a low of 1.4840/85 after birdying four of the first five holes but he hit a high of 50.049/1 when he found water off the tee on the 17th as he trailed DeChambeau by a stroke.
It looked like a done deal and, stood on the 17th fairway, DeChambeau hit a low of 1.021/50, but both men bogeyed the hole before Cantlay holed from 22 feet on the last to take it to extra-time.
It's far from a tough test and only three holes averaged over par four years ago, with the par four 18th ranking as the hardest but still averaging only 4.15.
In-form Young worth chancing
The Wyndham Championship winner, Cameron Young, was a frustrating pick at the FedEx St Jude Championship last week where he shot rounds of 69, 65, 71 and 64 to finish fifth.
Only five men shot a better score on Friday and his 64 on Sunday was the best of the day so his understandable slow start on Thursday and his 71 on Saturday cost him dear. I'm happy, however, to go in again at 32.031/1 in a tournament that may well suit him better.
He's ranked second and ninth for Putting Average in each of his last two starts and he reached 22-under-par when winning the Wyndham a fortnight ago, so a low scoring birdie-fest looks right up his street. As Dave Tindall highlights in his each-way piece, Young won around a Tom Fazio design on the Korn Ferry Tour back in 2021.
Back Cameron Young
I've backed Young on the Exchange at 32.031/1 and I was more than happy to place a small each-way double with my sole selection in Denmark, Sami Valimaki, on the Sportsbook.
Back Sami Valimaki and Cameron Young (each-way double)