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25/126.00 Cameron Young can follow up his Wyndham success
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20/121.00 Ludvig Aberg looks poised for another huge week
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40/141.00 Harris English can continue his excellent season
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Introduction to the BMW Championship
Unlike next week's concluding Tour Championship at East Lake in Atlanta, the BMW Championship is a nomadic event.
This year, the penultimate leg of the three-tournament FedEx Cup Playoffs returns to Caves Valley in Maryland.
It was last used in 2021 when Patrick Cantlay beat Bryson DeChambeau at the sixth extra hole after both had gone super-low and posted 27-under.
You won't see scores like that this time. The most obvious reason why is that par has been cut to 70 from 72 on the Tom Fazio design so that's an eight-shot difference already.
In addition, conditions were soft four years ago and they're due to be much firmer this time, especially the Bentgrass greens which have been recontoured.
It's a little longer too at a fraction over 7,600 yards while the bluegrass rough has been allowed to grow to four inches.
Having only one year of recent form to peruse is tricky enough and the difference in course set-up suggests we shouldn't lean too much on stats from 2021.
But Off The Tee was key that year and perhaps will be even more so this time given the extra length and the par of 70.
Approach play should also be relatively more imporant than last time when players were just throwing darts at the softened greens before a putting contest broke out.
Note that this week, the Betfair Sportsbook offers each-way betting for 5, 6, 7 and 8 Places.
That reflects the field size of just 50, with the top 30 at the end of the week advancing to the Tour Championship.
I very nearly tipped Cameron Young last week and wish I had after he followed up his runaway breakthrough victory at the Wyndham Championship with fifth place at St. Jude.
The idea, in any sport, that one win will open the floodgates is perhaps thrown around too easily but I very much had David Duval in mind when thinking about Young.
This is going back some but in 1997 Duval was also receiving heat for not being able to get over the line. He finally did so by winning the Michelob Championship and then followed it up a week later by capturing the Walt Disney.
Duval took a week off and made it three in row by landing the Tour Championship. With four wins in both 1998 and 1999, he went all the way to World No.1, some feat in the era of Tiger.
I'm not saying Young will do the same but he's very capable of riding the wave for now and this looks a great track for him to bank more silverware.
The Ryder Cup hopeful has ranked 1st and 2nd for Off The Tee in his last two events and was 4th and 2nd for Driving Distance. Add in a hot putter and he's absolutely on a roll.
He didn't play here in 2021 but it's a bonus that his only other start in Maryland produced a runners-up finish in the 2022 Wells Fargo when it was played at TPC Potomac and won with just 8-under.
A New Yorker, it's a short hop to Maryland and the first of his two Korn Ferry wins also came on a Tom Fazio design (Glen Club in Illinois).
Take the 25/126.00 in the 6 Place market.
Back Cameron Young each-way (6 Places)
When trying to fit a player to the examination paper being set, Ludvig Aberg looks ideally equipped to thrive.
The Swede's 2025 season reminds me of Hideki Matsuyama's from last year.
In 2024, Matsuyama won The Genesis Invitational in February after a slow start to the campaign and didn't have another top five until August when following up third place in the Olympics with victory at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Aberg also won February's Genesis (although on a different course) and, like Matsuyama, hasn't had a top five since despite some promising results.
In his last three starts, he's finished eighth in the Scottish Open, 23rd in The Open and ninth at last week's St. Jude. In other words, he too looks ready to strike again and repeat Matsuyama's feat of adding a second win in August.
The overall point is that both are capable of real spikes when their best golf translates into a trophy rather than a bold challenge that comes up short. A winner's mentality and knowing how to convert is part of the equation and Aberg absolutely has that.
Aberg has gained strokes Off The Tee in each of his last seven events and was 5th in that category last week. He's 10th overall for OTT on the season.
He's also ranked in the top 10 for Driving Distance in his last four tournaments (4th at St. Jude) and that will be a big help here.
Scroll back through his career and you'll find him winning at 7,615-yard Barseback in 2020 and 7,765-yard Torrey Pines earlier this year. He's also been runner-up at 7,555-yard Augusta National and 8,130-yard Castle Pines. Aberg started the season with fifth on the 7,596-yard Plantation Course.
It's a trade-off between price and number of each-way places but I want to go for the biggest odds possible so will take the 20/121.00.
Back Ludvig Aberg each-way (5 Places)
Harris English is one of just 14 players in the field who played here in 2021 and he should have some positive memories having closed with a 65 to finish 26th.
He returns this time having finished runner-up in two of the last three majors. The first of those was on the lengthy 7,626-yard Quail Hollow.
While not the biggest hitter in the world (although his average whack of 302.6 yards is far enough), he does play well on lengthy courses.
As well as Quail Hollow, he took victory at Torrey Pines (7,765 yards) in February while 12th at Augusta National was another strong effort.
English is 53rd Off The Tee this season (15th at St. Jude last week) and his 27th for SG: Putting highlights another weapon.
To get a measure of the year he's having, the 35-year-old started the year at 73rd in the World Rankings and now he's up to 8th. Obviously, he has a high FedEx Cup ranking (10th) as well.
Talking in Memphis last week, he said: "It's nice to be in this position. I remember last year coming in, I was in the low 50s and had to play well this week to make it to next week, so I'm glad that pressure is off and I can go play golf and not have to worry about getting in next week and getting in the Tour Championship. It's nice freedom to have on the golf course."
He's thoroughly enjoyed playing in elite company this season and hopefully that translates into a title challenge here.
I'll back him in the 6 Places market where 40/141.00 is on offer.
Back Harris English each-way (6 Places)