The Punter's In-Play Blog: Tight at the top at Kingston Heath

• 11 players within three with 18 to play

• Longshot Stubbs added to the portfolio

• Read the Find Me a 100 Winner column here

09:55 - November 30, 2024

We've still got 18 holes to play at the Australian Open, but it's already been an entertaining event.

Cam Smith was the first player to threaten to assume command when he was matched at just 2.789/5 with nine to play on Friday, but he capitulated after the turn and following a sorry 76 in round three, he now sits tied for 49^th and 12 off the lead!

Lucas Herbert led by four at halfway and he's been matched at a low of 1.654/6 already but he was caught and passed by the 250.0249/1 outsider, Ryggs Johnston, after just seven holes of round three.

Johnston was matched at a low of 2.77/4 when he led by two with five to play but a poor drive at the par five 14^th led to a double bogey seven and with the likes of Wenyi Ding, the defending champion, Joaquin Niemann, and Marc Leishman all making up ground on the leaders, we have a fascinating 54-hole leaderboard.

Kingston Heath bites back at our leader Ryggs Johnston at the 14th #AusOpenGolf pic.twitter.com/JBeM3HQZjd

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) November 30, 2024

Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 09:50.

Lucas Herbert -14 3.1511/5
Ryggs Johnston -14 6.25/1
Joaquin Niemann -12 5.79/2
Elvis Smylie -12 13.5
Ding Wenyl -12 14.013/1
Oliver Lindell -12 17.016/1
Jasper Stubbs -12 46.045/1
Mark Leishman -11 16.015/1
Curtis Luck -11 44.043/1
Lukas Nemecz -11 48.047/1
Harrison Crowe -11 70.069/1
Joel Girrbach -10 200.0199/1
-9 and 200.0199/1 bar

Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Harry Higgs, went backwards yesterday, having sat tied for third at halfway but my other pick, Curtis Luck, made a move in the other direction.

Harrison Crowe, who I backed after round one, is still on the premises and my halfway pick, Elvis Smylie, recovered brilliantly yesterday after dropping three shots at 8 and 9, so I'm not without remote chances tomorrow and I've added one more at a big price...

Herbert is the 3.1511/5 favourite but I can see why one or two firms go as big as 9/43.25.

He bounced back nicely after a poor third round to win the New South Wales Open two weeks ago but I'm not convinced he can repeat the feat, and he has some brilliant players on his tail.

The defending champ, Niemann, is a huge danger from two back after his 64 in round three, as are the rising stars alongside the Chilean, Wenji Ding from China, Finland's Oliver Lindell, and last year's Asia-Pacific Amateur champion, Jasper Stubbs.

Stubbs is quite rightly a big price given his inexperience, but the Victorian can't be ruled out given he clearly enjoys playing the sandbelt tracks and that he won the Asia-Pacific Amateur at Royal Melbourne.

It's going to be interesting to see how Stubbs handles the pressure of playing in the final three-ball on Sunday in his national open and it's long odds-on that he struggles but he's a fraction big at 46.045/1.

10:20 - November 29, 2024

Having finished third at the Queensland PGA Championship and second at both the New South Wales Open and last week's Australian PGA Championship, November has been a frustrating month for Cam Smith.

He led the New South Wales Open by two with a round to go and he traded at odds-on last week, but he looked like he might redeem himself this week when he turned for home in round two of the Australian Open trailing Lucas Herbert by just a stroke.

Smith was matched at a low of 2.789/5 as it looked highly likely that he and Herbert would be duelling it out for the famous Stonehaven Trophy over the weekend but a sorry back-nine by the 2022 Open Champ looks to have cost him dear.

A bogey at ten, following a missed green from the fairway, was followed by two more at 12 and 15 and a devastating double bogey at 16, and with Herbert birdying three in-a-row from the 13^th, following a shaky spell of play off the tee after the turn, Smith trails the leader by eight with two rounds to go!

Here's the halfway leaderboard with prices to back at 10:10.

Lucas Herbert -14 1.8810/11
Ryggs Johnston -10 18.017/1
Elvis Smylie -9 21.020/1
Oliver Lindell -9 24.023/1
Harry Higgs -9 27.026/1
Matthew Southgate -9 30.029/1
Lukas Nemecz -9 38.037/1
Jordan Gumberg -9 70.069/1
Wenyi Ding -8 29.028/1
Harrison Crowe -8 100.099/1
Jasper Stubbs -8 140.0139/1
Marc Leishman -7 21.020/1
Cam Smith -6 32.031/1
-7 and 75.074/1 bar

Herbert is clearly the man to beat and he's a tempting price at around 10/111.91 but it's unlikely to be a serene passage for odds-on backers.

Herbert was the benefactor when Smith collapsed in round four a fortnight ago, but the boot could have very easily have been on the other foot.

Herbert had led by two at halfway before a sorry 72 saw him trailing by four in a tie for third with a round to go.

Having thought he'd blown it, Herbert shot 67 on Sunday to win by two as Smith shot his own sorry 72 on Sunday.

Herbert was in with a chance of winning his national title 12 months ago and he was matched in running at just 2.3811/8 after a fast start to round four but a triple-bogey at the ninth was followed by a bogey at 10 and he ended the week in seventh place, beaten by four.

Bearing in mind his wobble in the New South Wales Open two weeks ago and his implosion in this event in round four last year, I'm happy to swerve the frontrunner at odds-on and I have no doubt at all where the value sits with two rounds to go.

Having got off the mark last week at the Australian PGA Championship, Elvis Smylie began this week's tournament slowly.

The 22-year-old was three-over par after seven holes of his opening round at Victoria yesterday and he was matched at a high of 310.0309/1 but after a rally on Thursday which saw him birdying four holes in-a-row, and a fabulous eight-under-par 64 around Kingston Heath today, which was finished off with this remarkable birdie at the 18^th, he looks a big danger.

Take a bow, Elvis Smylie #AusOpenGolf pic.twitter.com/WzRPPEbOak

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) November 29, 2024

He clearly enjoys the Kingston Heath layout so that bodes well given the weekend will be played out there, and I can't understand why he's being matched at 20/121.00 when he's no bigger than 14/115.00 on the High Street.

10:50 - November 28, 2024

An early start on day one of the Australian Open proved to be hugely beneficial, whether you began the event at Kingston Heath or Victoria.

American, Jordan Gumberg, shot a six-under-par 65 around Victoria in the afternoon but he's the only man inside the top-seven not to have teed off early on day one. Matt Cooper's huge 250/1251.00 outside fancy, Harrison Crowe, who shot a five-under-par 66 at Victoria, is the only other afternoon starter inside the top-13 on the leaderboard after round one.

Only four of the top-13 began the event at Kingston Heath, and it was at Victoria where the two men to dominate the market after round one played today.

Pre-event 16/117.00 chance, Lucas Herbert, eagled the ninth hole (his 18^th) to post an eight-under-par 63 to lead after round one. Cam Smith, who played in the same group as Herbert, birdied his last five holes to get to within two of the leader.

Herbert is now a 7/24.50 chance, Smith is trading at 5.39/2 and it's 20/121.00 bar the pair.

My Find My A 100 Winner fancies were both assigned favourable early starts on day one and Curtis Luck was on the premises until he bogeyed two of his last three holes at Kingston Heath. Harry Higgs posted a five-under-par opener around Victoria.

Higgs birdied four holes in-a-row around the turn but parred the last eight holes so, although it's a great start, it's tinged with a little disappointment.

If forced to play one of the two market leaders, it would be Smith but he's been disappointing at the business end of events over the last two weeks.

He finished runner-up at the New South Wales Open two weeks ago, beaten by three, having led by two with a round to go. After trading at odds-on, when he stiffed his approach to the opening hole on Sunday at last week's Australian PGA Championship, he went on to finish second again, beaten by two.

The wind isn't predicted to pick up quite as much as it did in the afternoon on day one but an early start tomorrow should be marginally advantageous. So it makes sense to follow Matt in on Crowe at an industry-wide best of 70/171.00 with the Sportsbook, who are still offering four places.

I've had a small wager on Crowe each-way and I've also backed one I mentioned in the Find Me a 100 Winner column - Nicolas Colsaerts - who shot a bizarre four-under-par 67 around Victoria today.

Back-to-back double-bogeys at three and four looked to have ruined a great start to his opening round (four-under after 10, having started at the ninth) but he finished with four birdies in-a-row so he's clearly in fine fettle. I thought he was a bit too big at 85.084/1.

In-Play Picks:

Harrison Crowe (70/171.00 each-way - Sportsbook)
Nicolas Colsaerts @ 85.084/1
Elvis Smylie @ 21.020/1
Jasper Stubbs @ 46.045/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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