The Punter

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Superb Scheffler value to open his account

Golfer Scottie Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler in action at Pebble Beach last year

Following Harris English's victory at Torrey Pines, the PGA tour remains in California for the second Signature event of the year and our man has the lowdown ahead of Thursday's start here...


Tournament History

Originally named the Bing Crosby National Pro-Amateur and first staged in 1937 the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am has been in existence for 88 years. The Crosby name was dropped from the title in 1985, eight years after Bing's death and a year before long-time sponsors, AT&T, began their association.

It's not always been a particularly strong event, but the tournament was elevated to Signature Event status last year and as a result, there was a change to the format.

The AT&T Pebble Beach used to be staged over three courses in rotation - Spyglass Hill, Monterey Peninsula and the host course, Pebble Beach.

There would be a cut on Saturday night and the top 60 and ties would fight out the finish at Pebble Beach on Sunday but as was the case 12 months ago, we're only using two courses this year - Spyglass and Pebble.

With no cut, the limited field of 80 pros and 80 amateurs will play the two courses in rotation on Thursday and Friday with the event concluding at Pebble over the weekend, although for the eighth time in the tournament's history, last year's edition was played over just 54 holes because of poor weather.


Course Details

Pebble Beach (host course), par 72, 6972 yards, stroke average in 2024 - 69.63
Spyglass Hill par 72, 7041 yards, stroke average in 2024 - 70.58 

The host course, Pebble Beach, needs no introduction to most keen golf fans. This iconic seaside links has hosted the US Open six times and the PGA Championship once. It isn't a long course and it's not a tough driving test either. The fairways are largely generous, and the course's defence is its small greens, and of course, the weather.

The wind blew so hard last year that the event was reduced to 54 holes but not before Wyndham Clark hit a 12-under-par 60 in round three to break the course record.

PEBBLE BEACH 2023 2.jpg

Spyglass differs from Pebble in that it's largely tree-lined and although it often plays slightly tougher than the host course, as it's more sheltered, it can be a good place to play on a windy day.
 
The greens at both courses are Poa annua, as they were at Torrey Pines last week, and given how windy it can get here, they're usually set at a pedestrian (by PGA Tour standards) 12 feet on the Stimpmeter.


Weather Forecast


TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 16:45 UK time


Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2024 - Wyndham Clark -17 100.099/1 (54 holes)
2023 - Justin Rose -18 44.043/1
2022 - Tom Hoge -19 75.074/1
2021 - Daniel Berger -18 17.016/1
2020 - Nick Taylor -19 210.0209/1
2019 - Phil Mickelson -19 36.035/1
2018 - Ted Potter Jr -17 850.0849/1
2017 - Jordan Spieth -19 10.09/1


What Will it Take to Win the AT&T?

Last year's winner, Clark, ranked third for Driving Distance but length off the tee isn't vital and neither is accuracy given the last 18 event winners have had an average DD ranking of 33.92 and an average Driving Accuracy ranking of 39.05.

It doesn't make an awful lot of difference where your drives finish up but where your second shot lands tends to be key.

The last two winners have ranked only 47th and 34th for Greens In Regulation but the top six in the GIR rankings all finished inside the top-14 and ties 12 months ago and Brandon Wu, who finished tied for second two years ago, topped the GIR rankings.

The last two winners have pushed the averages up but the average GIR ranking for the 16 winners before rose won here two years was just 5.31.

The last two winners have definitely gone against the grain given 14 of the last 18 winners have ranked inside the top-nine for greens hit.

The 2021 winner, Daniel Berger, ranked only 18th for Strokes Gained Putting and 29th for Putting Average which is as poor as it gets here. In the previous 15 editions, the worst Putting Average ranking of any winner had been 16th (Brandt Snedeker in 2016 and Dustin Johnson in 2009).

The last three winners have produced much more typical putting numbers. The 2002 winner, Tom Hoge, ranked second for PA and third for SG:P, Rose ranked third and 14th for those two stats, and Clark topped them both last year.

Hot putters, and those that are familiar with Poa annua, are the players to concentrate on.


Is There an Angle In?

It stands to reason that given Pebble Beach is a links-style course and that it's perched alongside the ocean, that Open Championship form stands up well here.

When Jordan Spieth followed his victory here with success at Royal Birkdale in 2017, he became the third different AT&T winner to also win the Open Championship this century. The five-time winner, Phil Mickelson, is also an Open champion and something of a links specialist and a number of recent winners have a cracking record in the world's oldest Major Championship.

Justin Rose Pebble Beach scenic.jpg

Rose has never won the Open, but he finished second to Francesco Molinari at Carnoustie in 2018, he famously finished fourth 20 years earlier as an amateur and he contended again last year. He also won the Scottish Open at Royal Aberdeen 11 years ago so he's very much a links specialist.

Wind is nearly always a factor here so players that play well in blustery conditions also prosper.


Is There an Identikit Winner?

With the likes of Tiger Woods, Davis Love III, Vijay Singh, Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, Jimmy Walker, Brandt Snedeker and Jordan Spieth all winning here this century when well fancied, we've seen plenty of winning favourites, but this is still a great event for longshots.

Last year's winner, Clark, was matched at as high as 160.0159/1 before the off, Nick Taylor was a 210.0209/1 chance five years ago and two of the last nine winners have been matched at 1000.0999/1 before the off.

The home contingent has a very good record and when Rose took the title two years ago, he was just the fifth overseas winner in the event's entire history.


Course experience counts

Clark is an unusual winner. He was miles back after two rounds before his 60 in round three, that proved to be enough when the tournament was reduced, and with figures reading MC-18-MC, he didn't have great course form coming into the event but that's not the norm here.

The longshot winners over the last nine years all had bits of form in the event and 13 men have won the tournament more than once. And Spieth arguably should have made it 14 three years ago when he was matched at a low of 1.331/3 on the back nine on Sunday.


Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2024 - Wyndham Clark - T23rd - trailing by six 320.0319/1*
2023 - Justin Rose led by a stroke 3.211/5
2022 - Tom Hoge - tied for the lead 6.611/2
2021 - Daniel Berger - T2nd - trailing by two 7.413/2
2020 - Nick Taylor led by a stroke 2.915/8
2019 - Phil Mickelson solo 2nd - trailing by three 6.611/2
2018 - Ted Potter Jr - tied for the lead 14.013/1
2017 - Jordan Spieth led by six strokes 1.141/7

* Position after 36 holes of 54 hole event


In-Play Tactics

We'll never know whether Clark would have been able to kick on a get the job done if the fourth round had been played but we've seen plenty of off the pace winners regardless.

Wyndham Clark wins Pebble Beach 2024.jpg

In addition to Vaughn Taylor, who was a 200.0199/1 chance when he trailed by six through 54 holes in 2016, we've also seen Tiger Woods win from five strokes adrift, Phil Mickelson six, and in 2001, Davis Love III won from seven back but like many a tournament played on a links course, if the weather is kind, being up with the pace is very often the place to be.

The last two US Open winners at Pebble, Gary Woodland and Graeme McDowell, were both in front at halfway and no more than three off the lead after round one, and Tiger Woods famously powered to a wire-to-wire 15-stroke victory here in the 2000 US Open at Pebble Beach.

Phil Mickelson (twice), Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth and the 2020 winner, Nick Taylor, have all won this event wire-to-wire in the last 18 years, and 16 of the last 20 winners have all been within three strokes of the lead after the first round.

If you're betting in-running on Sunday, things get tough after the first seven holes. Holes eight and nine ranked as the hardest two holes on the course in 2023 and they kick off a tough stretch until the par four 15th.

Be very wary of the par five 14th hole, as it's far from a certain birdie hole. The market tends to assume players will pick up a shot there, but it always averages over-par in round four and only 12 players birdied it on Sunday in 2023.

Only eight birdies were made on the hole on Sunday in 2022 and there were eight bogeys and four double-bogeys there two years ago. In 2022, there were 16 bogeys and two doubles there so it's a demanding hole and far from the standard par five encountered on the PGA Tour.


Superb Scheffler value to open his account

A freak accident on Christmas Day, when the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, sustained a puncture wound to the palm of his right hand from a broken glass, has delayed the world number one's start to 2025 but he makes his long-awaited reappearance this week at Pebble Beach and he's a very fair price to make it a winning return.

Scheffler is starting to look as dominant as Tiger Woods in his pomp and those of us that have been betting on golf long enough, know just how profitable the great man used to be to follow.

Woods would often go off at seemingly prohibitive odds but given he would win at the same venues year after year, he would often represent value, even at odds of around 3/14.00.

Sheffler at odds of around 5/16.00 this week is a must bet.

The 28-year-old played 21 events in 2024, and he went on to win nine times. That's an incredible 43% strike-rate so any time he's offered up at in excess of 3/14.00 he's going to come on to my radar.

And his strike-rate improves further if we only go back as far as March last year, when he got on top of his putting woes, given he's now won nine of his last 16 tournaments!

One could argue that he might need the outing this week but I'm far from convinced. He successfully defended his Hero World Challenge title with ease (at odds of 5/23.50) in December, more than three months after he'd won the Tour Championship, and he led The Sentry at halfway on his first start in 2024 before his cold putter eventually put pay to his chances.

There is one very obvious negative. He's played 20 tournaments in California without success but that looks like a strange anomaly he'll fix sooner rather than later.

He putts well enough on Poa, and he's twice looked like winning here. He was tied for the lead at The American Express through three rounds as a rookie in 2020, more than two years before winning the first of his 13 PGA Tour titles at the Phoenix Open, and he was tied for the lead after two rounds in this event last year.

Yet again, a cold putter saw him slip down the leaderboard in round three but who's to say he wouldn't have bounced back in round four if the event had gone to 72 holes?

Rory McIlroy is next up in the market, but he has a poor record here.

He missed the cut in the 2010 US Open before finishing ninth in the 2019 edition and on the two occasions he's played in this event, he missed the cut in 2018 before finishing 66th last year.

McIlroy was playing in the latest TGL match on Monday night, which is probably not a great way to prepare for this week, and the next three in the market - Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa and Patrick Cantlay - are far from prolific.

In addition to keeping it very simple with a wager on Scheffler, I have two longshots covered for the Find Me a 100 Winner column, which should be published later today.


*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter


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