08:35 - May 15, 2022
Despite a slightly sloppy finish to his third round, when he played the final four holes in one-over-par, having led the field through rounds one and two, Colombia's Sebastian Munoz still leads the AT&T Byron Nelson Championship with a round to go. Here's the 54 hole leaderboard with prices to back at 8:30.
Sebastian Munoz -21 4.03/1
Jordan Spieth -20 3.259/4
Joaquin Niemann -19 6.25/1
Justin Thomas -19 7.87/1
James Hahn -18 27.026/1
KH lee -17 50.049/1
Ryan Palmer -17 55.054/1
Charl Schwartzel -17 60.059/1
Scottie Scheffler -16 32.031/1
-16 and 100.099/1 bar
In addition to last year's edition of this event, when K.H Lee won by three, having sat second, trailing by one, there have been two editions of the Korn Ferry Tour Championship at TPC Craig Ranch and the three course winners have sat first, second and third with a round to go.
The course is so easy that scoring is guaranteed to be low again today and it's highly likely that one of the frontrunners shoots a low enough round to win.
My Find Me a 100 Winner pick, James Hahn, shot an 11-under-par 61 to make up 30 places in round three so it's possible to make up ground but it's long odds-on that one pf the front five takes the title.
Jordan Spieth heads the market and he's most definitely the one to beat.
Spieth won The Heritage last time out and winning back-to-back events is usually a tough ask but Spieth's done it before a couple of times.
He won the Travelers Championship prior to his last major success, at the Open Championship in 2017 and he won the John Deere Classic after he'd won the US Open in 2015. And when he won his first major championship, the US Masters in 2015, he did so after a win at the Valspar Championship and a pair of second place finishes at the Texas Open and the Houston Open.
When Spieth gets hot, he has a habit of staying hot and he's not scared to go and win.
Munoz was matched at a low of 2.6813/8 before his scruffy finish yesterday and although he still leads, it's going to take a monumental effort for him to convert ahead of the likes of Spieth, Joaquin Niemann and Justin Thomas.
I'm obviously hopeful that Hahn can repeat yesterday's heroics, or at least start nicely enough to trade short enough to provide some returns, and I'm also hopeful that yesterday's in-play pick, Niemann, can keep rolling the putts in but realistically I think Spieth is the man to beat.
With rounds of 67, 65 and 64, the world number nine has improved his score each day this week and he's already been nibbled at to win next week's US PGA Championship too.
Southern Hills, the venue for next week's major, which I've already previewed here, should really suit Spieth's brilliant short game so keep an eye on that market because if he finishes the job off today, he's going to shorten up even further for next week.
21:00 - May 14, 2022
A sensational five-under-par back nine in the third round of the Soudal Open has sent New Zealand's Ryan Fox to the top of the leaderboard with a round to go. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 20:55.
Ryan Fox -11 3.39/4
Sam Horsfield -10 4.216/5
Yanik Paul -9 11.521/2
Oliver Bekker -8 13.525/2
Fabrizio Zanotti -8 18.017/1
Niall Kearney -8 32.031/1
Marcel Schneider -8 34.033/1
-7 and 42.041/1 bar
Fox and Sam Horsfield dominate the market and so they should.
Fox has ticked along nicely since winning the Ras al Khaimah Classic in February and he has a fair record when leading through 54 holes.
He converted just one of three third round leads on the Australasian Tour but he won the Le Vaudreuil Golf Challenge on the Challenge Tour back in 2015, having led by three with a round to go, and he led by six through 54 holes back in February when winning the Ras al Khaimah Classic.
Horsfield has his girlfriend on the bag this week and he's nice and relaxed as a result but he lost his way a bit today after a fast start.
The Englishman was matched at just 2.3211/8 after he'd played his first six holes in three-under-par but bogeys followed at eight and nine and he parred his way in after a birdie at the 11th.
Horsfield won twice in a fortnight back in 2020. He converted a one stroke lead at the Hero Open before coming from one off the lead at the Celtic Classic two weeks later so he's in search of his third win on the DP World Tour.
If forced to choose between the two market leaders I'd plump for Horsfield at the prices but trailing by three and trading at 14.013/1, South Africa's Oliver Bekker looks the value with a round to go.
Bekker has been in fabulous form of late and he did very little wrong in Spain two weeks ago when he lost a protracted playoff to Adri Arnaus at the Catalunya Championship.
The front two command plenty of respect but Bekker looks a very fair price to swoop and claim his first DP World Tour title. He's a seven time winner on the Sunshine Tour and his golf of late deserves a victory on this Tour.
08:45 - May 14, 2022
We've reached the halfway stage in Belgium and Texas and both this week's events look very tough to untangle.
There are three men tied for the lead at the Soudal Open on the DP World Tour, with as many as 20 players within just three strokes of the lead and it's a similar story at the AT&T Byron Nelson Championship in Texas where the first round leader, Sebastian Munoz is tied for the lead with Ryan Palmer and David Skins.
Here are the two leaderboards with prices to back at 08:35.
Soudal Open
Sam Horsfield -8 5.79/2
Matti Schmid -8 11.521/2
Dale Whitnell -8 21.020/1
Richard Mansell -7 16.015/1
Ricardo Santos -7 60.059/1
Ryan Fox -6 15.529/2
Adrian Meronk -6 16.015/1
Oliver Bekker -6 17.533/2
Alexander Bjork -6 27.026/1
Matthew Jordan -6 30.029/1
Jorge Campillo -6 32.031/1
Yanik Paul -6 36.035/1
Nacho Elvira -6 46.045/1
Niall Kearney -6 50.049/1
Hennie Du Plessis -5 32.031/1
-5 and 50.049/1 bar
Byron Nelson Championship
Sebastian Munoz -15 5.95/1
Ryan Palmer -15 9.08/1
David Skinns -15 22.021/1
Justin Lower -14 24.023/1
Charl Schwartzel -13 28.027/1
Jordan Spieth -12 9.417/2
Joaquin Niemann -12 12.011/1
KH lee -12 26.025/1
Hideki Matsuyama -11 16.531/2
Jason Kokrak -11 32.031/1
Seamus Power -11 32.031/1
Alex Noren -11 34.033/1
Mito Pereira -11 44.043/1
Beau Hossler -11 100.099/1
Justin Thomas -10 16.015/1
-10 and 50.049/1 bar
This week's DP World Tour venue, the Rinkven International Golf Club in Antwerp, is easy on the eye and I'm enjoying watching the tournament but it's produced a very difficult leaderboard at halfway.
If forced to pick someone out at this stage I'd go for the in-form South African, Oliver Bekker, but I'm more than happy to leave the event alone for now. With so many players in-contention, it's just too tough to call and the AT&T Byron Nelson Championship isn't much easier.
Although up with the pace is the place to be in a low scoring affair like this, the leaders look vulnerable.
The first-round leader, Munoz, recovered superbly after a slow start yesterday but I'm in no rush to side with him, Ryan Palmer almost always disappoints in-the-mix and this is a big ask for 40-year-old Englishman, David Skinns, who probably represents the best value inside the top-five.
Skinns has won the Pinnacle Bank Championship twice on the Korn Ferry Tour (2018 and 2021) and last year's victory saw him earn his PGA Tour card for the very first time.
Bringing recent winning form to the table is a plus but winning on the biggest stage of all is a huge ask for a 40 year-old that's spent his career bobbing around on the lesser Tours.
Alone in fourth, Justin Lower, is looking for his first pro win and Charl Schwartzel in fifth, is looking for his first win in five years.
I suspect someone from outside the front five may take the title and the one I feel obliged to side with modestly is Joaquin Niemann at 12.011/1.
He was just fractionally short for my liking before the off and I was kicking myself for not siding with him yesterday after his fast start to round two, so I've now got him onside now at 12.011/1.
I'll be back this afternoon with my US PGA Championship preview and again this evening with a look at the Soudal Open with a round to go.
10:25 - May 13, 2022
I'll be back later today to look at the Soudal Open at the halfway stage, where the leaderboard is crowded, but it's a completely different story in Texas where Sebastian Munoz leads by four after day one!
The 29-year-old Columbian, who went to the University of Texas, was generally an 85.084/1 chance before the off, although he was matched at a high of 100.099/1, but we now have to decide whether he's a value play at just a shade over 3/1 with still three rounds of the AT&T Byron Nelson Championship to play.
As highlighted in the preview, it's hard to make up ground in low scoring events like this and we should probably be concentrating on the early pacesetters so I wouldn't want to put anyone off the leader.
Munoz's 12-under-par 60 yesterday morning was the round of the day by four shots and the stats suggests he's a value price at 4.216/5.
Since 1996, only eight men have led a PGA Tour event by four strokes after day one but three of them went on to win.
Justin Rose failed at the US Masters last year (as he did at the now defunct Walt Disney Golf Classic in 2006) but Phil Mickelson, Jason Day and Brandt Snedeker have all kicked on to win having held a four-stroke lead after round one on the PGA Tour.
Munoz kicked off the event yesterday morning so he's a late starter today but there wasn't a huge draw bias yesterday (0.67 in favour of the early starters) and I don't see there being much of a differential today either. The wind is forecasted to blow at around 13mph throughout the day with only the very early starters getting to play in gentler conditions.
The defending champion, KH Lee, was matched at a low of 11.521/2 yesterday after he'd reached eight-under-par through 12 holes but he parred his way in after that.
Lee is one of four players tied for second, with Kyle Wilshire alone in sixth on seven-under-par.
I'm happy to have a small bet on Lee at 20.019/1 given he ranked number one for Greens In Regulation yesterday. There's scope for him to score nicely today if the putter warms up and I've also had a small bet on Mexico's Carlos Ortiz who sits tied for seventh on six-under-par.
The 31-year-old, who like Munoz, went to the University of Texas, now resides in the state and his sole success to date on the PGA Tour was in Texas in the week before a major championship 18 months ago. He won the Houston Open seven days before Dustin Johnson won the US Masters in November 2020.
With the US PGA Championship being staged next week, the likes of world number one, Scottie Scheffler, the aforementioned, DJ, Jordan Spieth and Hideki Matsuyama have all started nicely (all shot five-under-par 67s to sit tied for 12th) so keep an eye on that market as this event progresses as there will be plenty of change.
Soudal Open Pre-Event Selections:
Ashun Wu @ 80.079/1
Sebastian Soderberg @ 80.079/1
In-Play Picks:
Guido Migliozzi @ 75.074/1
Oliver Bekker @ 14.013/1
Byron Nelson Pre-Event Selections:
See Find Me a 100 winner picks below
In-Play Picks:
K.H Lee @ 20.019/1
Carlos Ortiz @ 80.079/1
Joaquin Niemann @ 12.011/1
Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
2 pts Patton Kizzire @ 110.0109/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
2 pt Kurt Kitayama @ 150.0149/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
2 pt Kurt Kitayama Top-10 Finish @ 12.523/2
1 pt Brandon Wu @ 260.0259/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
1 pt James Hahn @ 350.0349/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
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