Arnold Palmer Invitational: Matt Fitz the bill at Arnie's Place

Tournament History

Originally called the Florida Citrus Open and first staged back in 1966, the tournament was won by Arnold Palmer in 1971. Palmer then took over the event in 1979 and moved it to Bay Hill Country Club.

It's been called the Bay Hill Invitational in the past but it's now well established as the Arnold Palmer Invitational and this will be the 44th renewal at Bay Hill.

Venue

Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Orlando, Florida

Course Details

Par 72, 7,466 yards
Stroke average in 2021 - 73.08

Originally designed in 1960 by Dick Wilson and Joe Lee, Arnold Palmer bought Bay Hill in 1976 and he spent the rest of his life tinkering with it. It played as a par 70 in-between 2007-09 but after a major renovation it reverted back to a par 72 in 2010.

There are 84 bunkers and water is in-play on half the holes. All the greens were changed to Emerald Bermuda before the 2010 edition but they came in for much criticism in 2015 as they weren't in good conditions at all with a couple of players anonymously commentating on them before the off. "Speed may be a bit of an issue," said one competitor, "It looks like a comb-over!" said another. Arnie took the hint and after the event they were all changed again - this time to TifEagle Bermudagras.

The bigger than average greens can be set at an extremely fast 13.5 on the Stimpmeter and the rough is a minimum of 3 ½ inches high. Even if the wind doesn't get up, the course is still a proper test and since 1988, only three men have shot four rounds in the 60s - the runner-up, Kevin Chappell, six years ago, the winner, Matt Every, in 2015, and the runner-up in 2008, Bart Bryant.

The par five sixth is a fascinating U-shaped par five where we witnessed all sorts of fun with the eventual winner, Bryson DeChambeau, attempting what had previously been conceived as the impossible.

Drive: 377 yards.
Distance to the pin: 88 yards.@B_DeChambeau does it again at No. 6.#QuickHits pic.twitter.com/HYSyDvQCMm

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 7, 2021

Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all for days, starting at 15:00 on Thursday

Last Six Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2021 - Bryson DeChambeau -11 15.014/1
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton -4 70.069/1
2019 - Francesco Molinari -12 70.069/1
2018 - Rory McIlroy -18 20.019/1
2017 - Marc Leishman -11 160.0159/1
2016 - Jason Day -17 18.017/1

What Will it Take to Win the Arnold Palmer Invitational?

Unsurprisingly, nobody hit it further off the tee than Bryson 12 months ago and Rory McIlroy also ranked number one for Driving Distance when he won here four years ago.

The 2016 champ, Jason Day, ranked sixth and Martin Laird ranked fifth for DD in 2011 but although a long track, length hasn't been imperative and the other eight winners over the last dozen years have ranked 45th, 36th, 11th, 49th, 48th, 34th, 26th and 17th.

The 2019 winner, Francesco Molinari, ranked third for Driving Accuracy but that's the lowest a winner has ranked for that stat in many a year.

The last two winners have ranked 25th and 33rd for DA and the six winners before Molinari ranked 71st, 51st, 32nd, 44th, 17th and 48th.

The first and second last year, DeChambeau and Lee Westwood, ranked second and first for both Greens In Regulation and Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and as is so often the case, they're the two key stats to concentrate on.

Bay Hill's greens aren't easy to hit and four of the last five winners have ranked inside the top-ten for GIR. And the last six winners have ranked second, fifth, 13th, seventh, 13th and fourth for Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.

Course Form Counts at Bay Hill

In four previous visits to Bay Hill, DeChambeau had finished second and fourth and the four winners before Bryson had all finished inside the top-five here before they won.

Matt Every was the seventh man to win the event more than once in 2015 and Tiger Woods has won the tournament a staggering eight times, so course form stands up really well and previous winners have a great record.

Understandably, given how important course form is, debutants don't fare brilliantly and Robert Gamez, way back in 1990, is the last player to win on his first visit to Bay Hill.

That's a sizable negative for the world number one and tournament favourite, Jon Rahm.

Links lovers shine at Arnie's

DeChambeau is yet to contend in an Open Championship but the man that ran him close last year, Westwood, is a renowned links exponent and that's been a common theme at Bay Hill.

The 2020 winner, Tyrrell Hatton, has won two Alfred Dunhill Links Championships, the two winners before him, Molinari and McIlroy, have both won the Open Championship and the two winners before that, Leishman and Day, very nearly have.

Leishman was beaten in a playoff in 2015 and Day finished one stroke behind the three playoff protagonists that year - Leishman, Louis Oosthuizen, and the winner, Zach Johnson. And Oosty and Zach both have top-tens at Bay Hill on their CVs.

The 2010 winner, Els is a two-time Open champ and Tiger Woods can play links tracks quite well too so that's a decent angle in.

Is There an Identikit Winner?

Overseas players have a great record. The second and third last year and the first three home in 2020 were all from overseas and, having won the Honda Classic the week before, Keith Mitchell, who finished tied sixth, was the only American inside the top-nine places three years.

The five winners before Bryson were all overseas players and that 2019 edition was the first event since the 2010 Open Championship that no Americans were in the top-five in a PGA Tour event. And it was the first time in at least 15 years that no American had finished inside the top-five in a PGA Tour event on American soil.

Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2021 - Bryson DeChambeau T2 - trailing by one 3.412/5
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton led by two strokes 3.8514/5
2019 - Francesco Molinari T17 - trailing by five 130.0129/1
2018 - Rory McIlroy solo 3rd - trailing by two 4.94/1
2017 - Marc Leishman T3 - trailing by three 16.015/1
2016 - Jason Day led by two strokes 1.9210/11

In-Play Tactics

Jason Day was only the fourth clear wire-to-wire winner in the tournament's history and he was the first to achieve the feat since Fred Couples in 1992 but being up with the pace is usually crucial here.

Molinari was matched at 180.0179/1 before round four three years ago, having tumbled from third to 17th with a three-over-par 73 on Saturday but even with that poor round, he was never more than five adrift. Rory McIlroy sat 13th and 11th, trailing by five and six strokes after rounds one and two in 2018 and that was fairly well adrift compared to most winners. Leishman sat tied for 20th and four strokes back after round one five years ago before sitting fourth at halfway and third after round three and Every was never more than three off the lead at any stage between any round in 2015 and that's fairly typical.

Every had been ten adrift at halfway in 2014 but that's really misleading. Adam Scott was seven in front of everyone at that stage so given he pretty much choked there's an argument for taking him out of the equation and if we do that, the winner was only two strokes off second place.

DeChambeau was never more than three adrift last year and Hatton, having sat fifth after round one in 2020, led thereafter and the manner of Molinari's victory looks like a one-off given we have to go back to 1997 to find the last winner (Phil Mickelson) that wasn't inside the front-three on the leaderboard with a round to go.

Being up with the pace is clearly a big plus but being in front hasn't been ideal of late - six of the last eight third round leaders have failed to convert and 19 players have held a clear lead at halfway in the last 26 years and only six of them went on to win.

Bay Hill's a tough venue, getting to the winning line is difficult, and although the last two winners were the only players in the field to go odds-on, it's been a great place to take on odds-on shots in-running.

When Rory McIlroy hit a low of 1.855/6 in 2019, before finishing sixth, he was the sixth player in seven years to trade at odds-on and get beat.

If you plan to trade in-running, bear in mind how difficult the finish is here. The par five 16th is the easiest on the course, averaging just 4.39 last year when there were 22 eagles and 226 birdies recorded throughout the week, but with four of the final five holes averaging well over-par year after year, that's the only respite coming in. The 18th is really tough and it averaged 4.47 12 months ago.

One final strange thing of note, despite some thrilling close finishes, there hasn't been a playoff here this century.

Market Leaders

I'm in no rush to side with the world number one, Jon Rahm. As already highlighted, the fact that he's never played here before is a negative and his overall Florida form, that reads MC-63-12-6-32-9, is nothing to write home about either.

After a grumpy third at his beloved Torrey Pines, a disappointing 10th in the Phoenix Open, around a track he knows intimately, and a 21st place finish in the Genesis Invitational, he looks one to swerve at a single figure price. Although it is perhaps worth noting that he signed off the Genesis with a 65 on Sunday.

Rory McIlroy has a fabulous record here and he was in front after round one again 12 months ago. With course form figures reading 11-27-4-1-6-5-10, and current form figures reading 14-1-6-12-3-10, it's very difficult to envisage him not contending but he's starting to be very unconvincing in-contention and he's arguably a better bet in the First Round Leader market than he is in the outright.

Viktor Hovland continues to impress almost every time he tees it up and he's in search of his fourth win in eight starts. He bounced back nicely after a rare weekend off at the Phoenix Open with a fourth at Riviera two weeks ago but his course form here is slightly concerning.

Hovland's played the event three times previously but he's never bettered his 40th place finish on debut in 2019, and that's despite sitting just two off the lead at halfway 12 months ago.

Selection

I may well have an outsider or two for the Find Me a 100 Winner column but for now I'm going for just one, and he's a very obvious one at that.

With current for figures reading 2-6-10 and course form figures reading MC-27-13-MC-2-9-10, it's highly likely that England's Matthew Fitzpatrick will figure in the shake up and with eight places on offer, the 28/1 with the Sportbook looks more than fair.

Selection:
Matthew Fitzpatrick @ 28/1 each-way (Sportsbook)

I'll be back later today or in the morning with my Kenya Open and Puerto Rico Open previews.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter