-
GIR & Par 4 Scoring the key stats
-
Stick with the Brits in Scotland
-
Read my Sanderson Farms Championship preview here
Tournament History
The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship is the DP World Tour's only pro-am. It's only been in existence since 2001 but it feels like an established tradition, and this will be the 24th edition.
A stellar line-up of pros and celebs do battle over three iconic links venues over four days, with those who make the cut after round three getting to play the 2022 Open Championship venue, St Andrews, for a second time on Sunday.
Several Ryder Cuppers are in the line up and Tyrrell Hatton is bidding to defend the title and win the event for a fourth time.
Event Structure
Each pro is partnered by one amateur and the teams of two each play the three separate links courses (detailed below) in rotation over the first three days. The cut is made after the third round, when the top 60 pros and ties and the top 20 teams progress to the final round at St Andrews on Sunday.
Venues and Course Details
St Andrews (Old Course), Fife, Scotland
Par 72, 7,318 yards
Affectionately known as the 'The Old Lady', St Andrews is the course every golfer wants to play. It hosts the Open Championship every five years, it's universally referred to as 'the home of golf' and, like all links courses, it plays very differently depending on the weather. In benign conditions on day four eight years ago, runner-up, Ross Fisher, fired an 11-under-par 61 to break the course record and Hatton equalled the feat in round three last year.
The par four 17th hole, known as the 'road hole', is the toughest on the course and a par there is always acceptable. The back-nine is tougher than the front-nine and the toughest stretch on the course is between holes 11 and 17. The greens at St Andrews are usually set to run at around 10 on the stimpmeter.
Carnoustie, Angus, Scotland
Par 72, 7,394 yards
Carnoustie has been used for the Open Championship eight times to date and it was the scene of Francesco Molinari's magnificent triumph seven years ago. On the previous occasion, in 2007, Padraig Harrington edged out Sergio Garcia in a play-off, but it's best remembered as the venue where Jean van de Velde lost the plot in 1999 when on the 72nd hole, he blew a three-shot lead after finding the Barry Burn.
Often referred to as Carnasty, Carnoustie is also famous for its treacherous pot bunkers and it's the toughest of the three venues faced but the set-up this week, because they have to avoid making the amateurs looking foolish, is nowhere near as tough as it is at the Open. Tommy Fleetwood shot 63 to break the course record in this event eight years ago.
The greens at Carnoustie are expected to run at around 10.5 on the stimpmeter.
Kingsbarns, St Andrews, Fife, Scotland
Par 72, 7,227 yards
The newest of the three venues and located just seven miles from St Andrews, Kingsbarns is a Kyle Philips design that opened to much acclaim in 2000. With generous fairways and few water hazards, it's not a stern test in good weather. The 2012 winner, Branden Grace, opened with a round of 60 at Kingsbarns, but it's exposed and a tough place to play on a windy day.
The greens at Kingsbarns usually run at around 9.5 on the stimpmeter.
Weather Forecast
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four day. Starting at midday on Thursday.
Last 10 Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices
2024 - Tyrrell Hatton -24 16.015/1
2023 - Matt Fitzpatrick -19 16.015/1 (54 holes)
2022 - Ryan Fox -15 80.079/1
2021 - Danny Willett -18 120.0119/1
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Victor Perez -22 460.0459/1
2018 - Lucas Bjerregaard -15 65.064/1
2017 - Tyrrell Hatton -24 25.024/1
2016 - Tyrrell Hatton -23 60.059/1
2015 - Thorbjorn Olesen -18 240.0239/1
2014 - Oliver Wilson -17 1000.0999/1
What Will it Take to Win the Alfred Dunhill Links?
Last year's winner, Hatton, ranked 33rd for Driving Distance and 23rd for Driving Accuracy but the 2023 winner, Matthew Fitzpatrick, ranked only 123rd for DD and 53rd for DA and what you do off the tee here is usually irrelevant. Finding greens is nearly always important though...
The shock 2014 winner, Oliver Wilson, ranked in the 60s for Greens In Regulation but that was unusually high, and Hatton only ranked 12th last year but and 11 of the last 13 winners have ranked inside the top 10 for GIR.
Fitzpatrick topped the GIR rankings two years ago and Fox ranked only ninth 12 months earlier but the three winners before him - Danny Willett, Victor Perez, and Lucas Bjerregaard - all ranked third.
Given how easily the courses are set up, to accommodate the amateurs in the field, those that contend make lots and lots of birdies.
The runner-up 12 months ago, Nicolas Colsaerts, was the only man in the field to play the par fours better than the winner and four of the last seven winners have topped the Par 4 Scoring rankings for the week.
Unless the weather is poor, this is nearly always a birdie-fest, where going low is essential.
Hatton's tournament total of 24-under-par last year equalled the record he set back in 2017 when he defended the title having got to -23 in 2016 so he clearly likes it here in benign conditions.
Is There an Angle In?
The shock 2019 winner, Victor Perez, was hard to spot before the off. He was the first Frenchman to take the title and he didn't have any links form to boast or any form at any links type tracks.
Previous links form is usually an essential prerequisite to winning this event so punters were left scratching their heads, but not for long. It was only after he'd won that the story broke widely that his girlfriend was Scottish, that he'd moved to Dundee, and that he was playing lots of links golf.
Lucas Bjerregaard didn't have an abundance of obvious previous form either, but he had form at the Qatar Masters and his only previous DP World Tour success had come at the Portugal Masters - two events played at venues where links form holds up well. He'd also contended up until the halfway point of the 2014 Scottish Open but that was as much links form as he had in his locker.
Previous links form is very important here as a rule though and the first 17 event winners, as well as the last four champs - Hatton, Fitzpatrick, Fox and Danny Willett - have all been renowned links players.
Look closely at the results of the Irish Open whenever that's been staged at a links venue, as it was last year, the last 15 editions of the Scottish Open, and, of course, the Open Championship, for clues.
Previous tournament form has counted for plenty here too. Even though they were all outsiders, matched at triple-figure prices, the 2021 winner, Willett, and the three winners between 2013 and 2015 had all finished inside the top-three in the event before they won.
Is There an Identikit Winner?
Having grown up playing links golf, players from the UK and Ireland have a sizable advantage and an incredibly good event record. As many as 16 of the 23 winners to date have been English, Scottish, or Irish and eight different Englishmen have won the title.
Fox is a New Zealander, Branden Grace is the sole South African winner and Germany's Martin Kaymer took the title in 2010. The other three winners have been Scandinavians.
The last two winners haven been fairly was well fancied but outsiders have had a great record of late.
Although generally an 80.079/1 chance, Fox was matched at 95.094/1 before the off three years ago and despite his obvious claims, because he hadn't had a top-ten all year, mainly down to injury and illness, Willett was matched at a high of 150.0149/1 before the off in 2021.
Perez was matched at a high of 660.0659/1 seven years ago, Thorbjorn Olesen was matched at 270.0269/1 a decade ago, and the year before that, playing on a sponsor's invite, a woefully out of form Oliver Wilson was understandably matched at 1000.0999/1. David Howell was matched at 240.0239/1 before the off 12 years ago, Branden Grace was getting on for a triple-figure 13 years ago, and Michael Hoey was a huge outsider in 2011.
Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four
2024 - Tyrrell Hatton - leading by one 1.434/9
2023 - Matt Fitzpatrick - led by a stroke 1.75/7 (54 holes)
2022 - Ryan Fox - T2nd, trailing by four 8.07/1
2021 - Danny Willett - leading by three 2.6613/8
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Victor Perez - tied for the lead 4.57/2
2018 - Lucas Bjerregaard tied 5th - trailing by four 22.021/1
2017 - Tyrrell Hatton - leading by five 1.211/5
2016 - Tyrrell Hatton - leading by three 2.01/1
2015 - Thorbjorn Olesen - leading by three 2.021/1
In-Play Tactics
It's really difficult to make up ground in this event and after 23 renewals, we've witnessed just three winners trailing by more than four strokes after round one - Paul Lawrie in 2001, Stephen Gallagher in 2004, and the 2023 champ, Fox.
Having led by four strokes through 54 holes, Richard Mansell shot 76 in round four three years ago to finish seventh, but 10 of the last 13 winners were leading or tied for the lead with a round to go and three 54-hole leaders have been beaten in a playoff so this is a hard event at which to make up ground.
Getting to play Carnoustie on Thursday is the most advantageous draw and seven of the last 11 winners all began the week there but things have changed a bit of late and four of the last seven winners kicking off the event at St Andrews.
The draw is far from a draw as such with most of the big names getting the Carnoustie - Kingsbarns- ST Andrews rotation over the first few days but we have to go all the way back to 2012 for the last winner to kick off the week at Kingsbarns (Branden Grace) and he had to shoot 60 there!
Playing the toughest course on day one (Carnoustie) can be advantageous but we need to keep an eye on the weather forecast. Playing there on a really tough day can render a player's plight hopeless and the luck of the draw can come into play but last year's edition provided some interesting insight, and it seems playing Kingsbarns in the most benign weather is a huge plus.
Kingsbarns is the easiest of the three courses played, but it was very interesting to see how tough it played last year on Friday.
Kingsbarns averaged 67.88 on Thursday in benign conditions but only 70.05 on Friday, even though that was where all the elite players played that day.
Carnoustie, which is the toughest of the three courses encountered, averaged 70.66 in the calm weather on Thursday, which was almost three strokes more than Kingsbarns, but it only averaged 71.05 on Friday, exactly a stroke more than Kingsbarns on the same day, so even though it's the easiest of the three tracks played, it's not the best course to play in the wind.
Fitzpatrick fancied to double up
Following Team Europe's exhilarating victory in New York, four Ryder Cuppers, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick and Robert MacIntyre, dominate the market in Scotland. Punters have the quandary of predicting just how much Team Europe's celebrations are going to affect their performances.
Add in the predicament of the poor weather forecast, with very high winds predicted on Saturday, and it would be no surprise if we witnessed another surprise winner come Sunday afternoon.
I'll have one or two picks here for the Find Me a 100 Winner column tomorrow but I'm happy to chance the 2023 winner, Fitzpatrick, before the off at a juicy 14/115.00.
Playing alongside his mother, the 31-year-old took the title two years ago, when the event was reduced to three rounds after heavy rain, one week after Europe had defeated the USA in Rome, so we know he's capable of riding the wave of momentum caused by victory in the biannual bash and he may well cope better than most with the weather.
Back Matt Fitzpatrick
Having grown up honing his skills around the wind-exposed Hallamshire Golf Club in Sheffield, Fitzpatrick is more than capable of coping with blustery conditions. Given the outstanding record of the English, and of former winners of the event, he looks a fair price at 14/115.00 on the Betfair Exchange.
Fitzpatrick is an industry-wide best of 11/112.00 with the Sportsbook for those that prefer to play each-way.