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Former nearly man wins in style
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Jamieson disappoints in-the-mix once more
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Valderrama link firmly cemented
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An early tee time on day one of the Alfred Dunhill Championship proved preferable. The morning starters averaged 1.78 strokes better than those who teed it up in the afternoon. But that didn't stop the well-fancied Dean Burmester from leading at the end of the day.
Burmester turned for home in one-under-par, trailing the early frontrunner, Lukas Nemecz, by four. But a six-under-par 31 on the back-nine saw him pass the Austrian and he went into day two as the warm 4.3100/30 favourite.
Starting nice and early on the back nine on Friday morning, Burmester kicked on, playing his first eight holes in four-under-par. He was matched at a low of 2.245/4 as he looked likely to seize control but a bogey at the par five 18th halted his progress and he played the front nine in a very disappointing one-over-par.
Pre-event 50.049/1 chance, Scott Jamieson, was the big mover in round two, firing a bogey-free, course record nine-under-par 63 on Friday afternoon.
The 39-year-old Scotsman led by three at the halfway stage and headed the market at 4.216/5. Having been poor in-contention on many occasions, he looked short enough, but it was hard to disagree with the market given seven of the previous eight winners had led or been tied for the lead at halfway.
In benign conditions, Jamieson's two-under-par 70 wasn't a great score on Saturday and several players closed on the leader on 'Moving Day'.
My 40/1 pre-event pick, Adrian Otaegui, who'd been a 140.0139/1 chance after two rounds, fired a seven-under-par 67 to close from tied 28th to tied sixth. I was quite hopeful going into round four, even though he still trailed by three and was still a 16.015/1 chance.
Jamieson still led after his 70 and he was again trading at 4.216/5, but he was no longer alone.
Pre-event 180.0179/1 chance, Ockie Strydom, who was matched at a high of 390.0389/1 when the market first opened on Monday, sat alongside Jamieson after he made the biggest move on Saturday - firing the second nine-under-par 63 of the week. The pair sat two clear of the rest on -15 and Strydom was trading at 5.85/1.
The first-round leader Burmester was trading at 6.05/1, sitting alongside Oliver Bekker and Dale Whitnell in a tie for third.
With the likes of Branden Grace, Dylan Frittelli, Eddie Pepperell, and Louis Oosthuizen all inside the top-10, we looked set for an interesting and unpredictable final round. But Pepperell never got going and none of the experienced South Africans put up much of a challenge.
My man Otaegui started nicely and when the two leaders both double-bogeyed the tough ninth after visiting the water with their second shots, the Spaniard hit the front and he was matched at a low of 2.6213/8.
I was quite confident that Otaegui was now the man to beat but his back-nine lacked sparkle.
He birdied the drivable par four 11th but he could only par the par five 13th and 15th holes and it just wasn't enough with Strydom bouncing back after the double at nine in fine style.
Strydom's record was there for all to see. He'd finished runner-up on the Big Easy Tour three times in 2011 before graduating to the Sunshine Tour where he's finished second an incredible 16 times.
Only once, back in 2019, had he managed to get his head in front on the Sunshine Tour so, when he made a mess of the par four ninth, I expected him to struggle on the back-nine. But he recovered brilliantly, birdying four of the next five holes.
Strydom parred his way in after that and although Otaegui birdied the 72nd hole, it wasn't enough, and I couldn't help but feel slightly aggrieved.
Not only had a serial runner-up on the Sunshine Tour stepped up and won on the DP World Tour for the first time, but he'd also had the fortune of being on the right side of the draw. In contrast, Otaegui was drawn PM-AM and that side were disadvantaged to the tune of 2.85 strokes over the two rounds.
Jamieson disappoints once more
I may have been a bit miffed that Otaegui just bumped into the wrong man at the wrong time with the right draw but spare a thought for poor Scott Jamieson, who remains a player to take on with gusto.
Having been matched for the win at 2.915/8, he was also matched at 1.11/10 for plenty and 1.011/100 for pennies in the top-10 market, and 1.21/5 to finish inside the top-five, but Jamieson limped home to finish tied 11th. And on the two previous occasions he'd held a clear lead on the DP World Tour (by two strokes on both occasions) he'd finished 21st and 10th!
It's almost exactly 10 years since Jamieson won the now defunct Nelson Mandela Championship (a weather-shortened event over just 36 holes) and that remains his sole DP World Tour title. He's clearly one to oppose.
Valderrama link bolstered again
One of the reasons I backed Otaegui was his win at Valderrama in October. A number of players had form at both venues and the last winner of the Alfred Dunhill Championship - Christiaan Bezuidenhout - had won at Valderrama before winning at Leopard Creek. We now have even more evidence to cement the link.
In addition to Otaegui's performance, Jamieson has form at Valderrama and so too does the third placed finisher - Laurie Canter.
Jamieson sat tied for second at the halfway stage of the 2017 Andalucía Masters before eventually finishing sixth and Canter led the 2021 edition by three strokes after three rounds before finishing fourth.
There's no PGA Tour action now until 2024 and just one more DP World Tour event - the Mauritius Open - which begins on Thursday and I'll be back tomorrow with the preview.
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