Alfred Dunhill Championship 2025: Burmester and Von Tonder backed at 25/1 and 74/1

• Tired Leopard Creek takes a year out as we head to Joburg

• Greens In Regulation the key stat at Royal Johannesburg

• Home contingent likely to dominate

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Tournament History

First staged in January 2000 at Houghton Golf Club in Johannesburg, the Alfred Dunhill Championship moved to its usual venue, Leopard Creek, in 2005.

The event will return to Leopard Creek next year but after an intensely hot summer placed the Leopard Creek course under stress, the organisers decided that it needed a period of recovery, so this year's renewal will be staged back in its original home, Joburg, at the East Course at Royal Johannesburg, for one year only.

Like last week's Nedbank Golf Challenge, won by Kristoffer Reitan, the Alfred Dunhill Championship is co-sanctioned between the DP World Tour and the Sunshine Tour.

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Venue

The East Course, Royal Johannesburg Golf Club, Johannesburg, South Africa.

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Course Details

Par 72, 7,656 yards

The East Course is the more demanding of the two layouts at Royal Johannesburg (formerly the Royal Johannesburg and Kensington Golf Club) and along with the West Course, it was the venue used for the Joburg Open between 2007 and 2017.

It's a long Parkland Course positioned inside the city with a stream meandering its way through it.

Water comes into play on seven holes and it's a heavily bunkered, gently undulating course with kikuyu fairways and rough and bentgrass greens.

Although a long course, it doesn't play anywhere near its length due to the altitude.

In addition to the first 11 editions of the Joburg Open, the East Course has also been used for the Vodacom Golf Classic in 2002 (54 holes), the Kit Kat Group Pro Am in 2021 (54 holes) and the Tournament of Champions event on the Sunshine Tour in May 2024 and '25.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, beginning at 10:00 on Thursday in the UK.

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Last Eight Tournament Winners with Pre-event Prices

2024 - Shaun Norris -13 80.079/1
2023 - Louis Oosthuizen -18 20.019/1
2022 - Ockie Strydom -18 180.0179/1
2021 - Event cancelled
2020 - Christiaan Bezuidenhout -14 20.019/1
2019 - Pablo Larrazabal -8 60.059/1
2018 - David Lipsky -14 270.0269/1
2017 - Event cancelled
2016 - Brandon Stone -21 30.029/1
2015 - Charl Schwartzel -15 6.611/2

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Royal Johannesburg Course Winners this Century

2025 - Kieran Vincent -18
2024 - Louis Albertse -23
2021 - Rhys Enoch -12 (54 holes)
2017 - Darren Fichardt -15 (54 holes)
2016 - Haydn Porteous -18
2015 - Andy Sullivan -17
2014 - George Coetzee -19
2013 - Richard Sterne -27
2012 - Branden Grace -17
2011 - Charl Schwartzel -19
2010 - Charl Schwartzel -23
2009 - Anders Hansen -15
2008 - Richard Sterne -13 (playoff)
2007 - Ariel Canete -19
2002 - Ashley Roestaff -11 (54 holes) (playoff) 

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What Will it Take to Win the Alfred Dunhill Championship?

I haven't been able to find any stats for the two editions of the Tournament of Champions events over the last two years or the two 54 hole Sunshine Tour events and for some reason, complete stats are only available for the last six editions of the Joburg Open at Royal Johannesburg, and I'm not convinced that they can be entirely trusted. Did Andy Sullivan really win here a decade ago with a Scrambling ranking of 132^nd? 

If we can trust them, Greens In Regulation looks the most important stat with the last six Joburg Open winners here winners ranking 20^th, 31^st, fourth,13^th, first and second. 

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Is There an Angle In?

The 2016 Joburg winner here, Haydn Porteous, had missed his two previous cuts but prior to that, the previous six editions had gone to in-form players.

Prior to his victory 10 years ago, Andy Sullivan had won the South African Open and finished fourth in Abu Dhabi and George Coetzee finished fourth in Abu Dhabi and fifth in Qatar before finally breaking his duck here in 2014. Richard Sterne had finished runner-up to Stephen Gallacher in Dubai the week before he won in 2013, Branden Grace, who, like Coetzee, was winning on the DP World Tour for the first time here, had finished an eye-catching 14th at the Africa Open the week before he won in 2012 and Charl Schwartzel had been red-hot when he won this title in both 2010 and 2011.  He won back-to-back in 2010, having won the Africa Open the previous week, and he finished fourth in the Africa Open in 2011 before doubling up here.  

This isn't a tricky track, so it makes sense that in-form players enjoy what's usually a bit of a birdie-fest.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

As many as seven of the last eight Joburg Open winners at this venue were South African and 10 of the last 12 editions of this event have been won by a South African too so sticking with the home contingent may well be the way to go.

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Winner's Position with a round to go

2025 - Kieran Vincent - led by four
2024 - Louis Albertse - led by three
2021 - Rhys Enoch - seventh, trailing by four
2017 - Darren Fichardt - tied for the lead
2016 - Haydn Porteous - tied for the lead
2015 - Andy Sullivan - sixth, trailing by three
2014 - George Coetzee - fifth, trailing by four
2013 - Richard Sterne - tied for the lead
2012 - Branden Grace - led by three
2011 - Charl Schwartzel - tied for the lead
2010 - Charl Schwartzel - led by four
2009 - Anders Hansen - fourth, trailing by a stroke
2008 - Richard Sterne - 11^th, trailing by four
2007 - Ariel Canete - led by a stroke
2002 - Ashley Roestaff - led by a stroke

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In-Play Tactics

Although 10 of the 15 course winners this century have been leading or tied for the lead with 18 to play, we've seen several winners come from off the pace.

Sullivan was nine off the lead and outside the top 100 after round one a decade ago and Anders Hansen trailed by eight strokes after both rounds one and two in 2009 before weekend rounds of 64 and 66 saw him win by one.

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Selections

Given the strong record of South Africans at Royal Johannesburg, it makes sense to concentrate on the home contingent and the two I like are Dean Burmester and Daniel von Tonder, who both have fairly recent form around the East Course.

Burmester, who has won twice on the LIV circuit since moving to the rebel tour two years ago, finished runner-up to Rhys Enoch in the 54-hole Kit Kat Group Pro Am in 2021. But he probably should have won given he opened up with a seven-under-par 65 to tie the lead and signed off with a 66.

Burmester was beaten by two strokes and that's how many over par his second round 74 was.

The 36-year-old has already won 11 Sunshine Tour events and he won the third and fourth of his four DP World Tour events almost exactly two years ago, just before he made the lucrative move to LIV.

He missed the cut at the South African PGA Championship two weeks ago but that was just one week after he'd finished third in the Saudi International, after being tied for the lead with 18 to play.

After a couple of weeks off in his homeland, I suspect he'll find the form that saw him contend on the Asian Tour three weeks ago and I thought he was fairly priced at around 25/126.00.

Although he eventually finished the week in 10^th place, the prolific 34-year-old, Daniel van Tonder, really caught the eye last week at the Nedbank Challenge where he ranked inside the top five in three Stokes Gained categories - Off the Tee, Tee 2 Green and Around the Green.

The putter let him down around the Gary Player Country Club but, with four wins in his last 44 starts (two on the HotelPlanner Tour and two on the Sunshine Tour), he's very fairly priced at 75.074/1 given he finished second here in the Tournament of Champions event on the Sunshine Tour in May.

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Now get the form stats for this week's tournament in Johannesburg

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