Abu Dhabi Championship: Bobby Mac value to double up at 18/1

• Strong scrambling and putting key to success at Yas Links

• Abu Dhabi is a great event for outsiders

• Read my World Wide Technolgy Championship preview here

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Tournament History

The 20^th edition of the Abu Dhabi Championship is also the fourth of five Rolex Series events, and the first of two playoff events staged this year.

It's a limited field event for the top 70 players in the Race to Dubai Standings that elect to play.

At the conclusion of the Abu Dhabi Championship, the top 50 in the rankings will head to Dubai for the season finale - the DP World Tour Championship - next week.

The first 16 editions of the event were staged at the Abu Dhabi Golf Club but this is the fourth year in-a-row that the event will be staged at the Kyle Philips- designed Yas Links.

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Venue

Yas Links, Yas Island, Abu Dhabi.

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Course Details

Par 72 -7,425 yards
Stroke Average in 2024 - 68.78

Described as the first true links course in the UAE and designed by Kyle Philips, the man responsible for Kingsbarns, Yas Links opened in March 2010.

The Paspalum grass Par 72 Championship Links course, which has rolling hills and seashore greens was built on a perfectly flat piece of land and according to the designer, they "were able to significantly enhance and expand the existing shoreline and use the dredged sand to build an interesting variety of dune formations."

It's a spectacular course with a fabulous finish and this is what Philips told Nick Gordon about the 18^th back in 2016.

"My favourite hole here is the par five 18th, a true crescendo as one can attempt to cut the corner and reach the green in two. This is one of the most dramatic finishing holes I have designed."

According to Corey Finn, the Golf Course Manager. 

"It's a traditional links. So, if it doesn't blow like it does in Scotland, players will go quite low but, if it shows its teeth with the wind, then the guys will struggle. I think that's pretty cool. If you get it on the wrong side, it'll run away and you'll be in troublesome areas." 

The wind did blow in 2022, especially in round two, and the winner, Thomas Pieters, was the only player in the field to finish in double-digits below par but it was a different story in kind conditions last year. 

Tommy Fleetwood led after round one having tied the course record of 62 but that was broken on Friday after the eventual winner, Paul Waring, had posted rounds of 64 and 61 over the first two days.

 

Waring's staggering 36-hole total of 19-under-par set the new DP World Tour record for the lowest score in relation to par over the first two rounds so if the wind satays away, this is a very easy track for the pros. 

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 4:00 on Thursday.

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2024 - Paul Waring -24 300.0299/1
2023 - Victor Perez -18 44.043/1
2022 - Thomas Pieters -10 46.045/1
2021 - Tyrrell Hatton -18 14.527/2
2020 - Lee Westwood -19 140.0139/1
2019 - Shane Lowry -18 90.089/1
2018 - Tommy Fleetwood -22 34.033/1
2017 - Tommy Fleetwood -17 80.079/1

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What Will it Take to Win the Abu Dhabi Championship?

It's a bit of a confusing picture when looking at the stats.

The first four home all ranked inside the top-nine for Driving Distance in 2023 but waring ranked on 51^st last year and in 2022, the first four home ranked 23^rd, 62, 65^th and 46^th for DD and although the three previous course winners ranked 20^th, 10^th and 11^th for Driving Accuracy, the placed players in all three editions have ranked poorly for DA.

The three course winners have ranked 13^th, 20^th and ninth for Greens In Regulation so that isn't a key stat either and the two area to concentrate on appear to be on and around the green.

Although the last two winners have only ranked eighth and 19^th for Scrambling, the top four in the Scrambling rankings all finished inside the top seven and ties two years ago and nobody got up-and-down more often than the winner, Pieters, in 2022.

Pieters ranked only 59^th for Putting Average three years ago but Shubhankar Sharma and Rafa Cabrera Bello, who finished tied for second, ranked first and ninth for PA, the first six home two years ago ranked second, 11^th, first, tenth, third and 17^th for PA and the first two home last year ranked fourth and seventh.

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Links form essential at Yas Links

Links form stood up well at the old venue for this event, and it also does at the Emirates, home of the Dubai Desert Classic, and at Doha, the Qatar Masters' host course. It also comes to the fore whenever we visit Ras Al Khaimah, so look to form in the region as well as links form in the UK.  

Look to the Scottish Open, the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and of course, the Open Championship for evidence of links form, as what little evidence we have suggests Yas really is a genuine links track.

Paul Waring set the course record at Yas Links last year and that wasn't his first course record. He signed off the Irish Open in September last year with an unprecedented seven-under-par around Royal County Down so although he went off at a huge price, he'd more than advertised his links golf credentials.

In addition to links specialist, Tommy Fleetwood, Open champions, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, both contended strongly 12 months ago, and Tyrrell Hatton, who has won three editions of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, finished second. And that tournament looks the best guide so far.

The 2023 Abu Dhabi Championship winner, Perez, won the ADLC back in 2019, and Thorbjorn Olesen, who tied for third alongside Matt Wallace and Rory last year, also won the Scottish Pro-Am in 2015.

The Yas Links also hosted an annual pro-am event called the Abu Dhabi Invitational which was won by the likes of Darren Clarke, Steven Gallacher, Retief Goosen and Lee Westwood, who are all renowned links exponents so if you're toying with backing someone with little or no links form, it may be wise to think again.

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Other Kyle Philips layouts to consider

Victor Perez's victory here two years ago was his third on the DP World Tour and it was also his third at a Kyle Philips links venue so that's a very obvious place to start.

In addition to this event and the aforementioned Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, Perez also won the Dutch Open (KLM Open) at Bernardus in 2022.

In addition to the Grove, which hosted the British Masters in 2016, won by Alex Noren, and the WGC- American Express in 2006, won by Tiger Woods, and Kingsbarns, which is one of the three courses used in rotation at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, Kyle Philips, is also responsible for four other tracks used on the DP World Tour...

Philips designed the Dundonald Links, which hosted the Scottish Open in 2017, the PGA Sweden National, which held the 2014 and 2015 editions of what is now the Scandinavian Mixed (formerly the Nordea Masters), Bernardus, which has hosted the Dutch Open between 2021 and 2023, and he also designed Verdura Golf and Spa, which hosted all four editions of the now defunct Sicily Open between 2011 and 2018.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

Outsiders have fared well in Abu Dhabi over the years.

Although he went off at 44.043/1 Perez was well backed in 2023, having originally opened at 55.054/1, and the 2022 winner here, Pieters, was matched at 50.049/1 before the off.

Tyrrell Hatton was a well-backed 14/115.00 chance in 2021, but last year's winner was a 300.0299/1 chance before the off and the two winners before Hatton were also both matched at a triple-figure price.

Lee Westwood was a 140.0139/1 chance in 2020 and although he was generally a 90.089/1 chance, Shane Lowry was matched at 100.099/1 before the off six years ago.

Tommy Fleetwood was generally a 34.033/1 chance when successfully defending in 2018 (a year after winning at 80.079/1), and Rickie Fowler was a well-fancied 20/121.00 shot in 2016 but the four winners before him were all huge outsiders.

Gary Stal was matched at 320.0319/1 before the 2015 edition and Pablo Larrazabal, Jamie Donaldson and Robert Rock were all matched at a triple-figure price.

Rolex Series events tend to go to one of the fancied runners, but history suggests we shouldn't be afraid to back an outsider or two in this one.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2024 - Paul Waring - led by a stroke 4.77/2
2023 - Victor Perez - tied fourth, trailing by one 11.010/1
2022 - Thomas Pieters - tied second, trailing by one 4.131/10

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In-Play Tactics

Having trailed the first-round leader, Fleetwood, by two, Waring was five in front at halfway after his sensational 61 and he was trading at around 11/43.75.

He stuttered on Saturday with a 73 and he drifted out to 4.77/2 before the final round with his lead reduced to just one but he responded brilliantly with a 66 on Sunday to win by two.

Victor Perz triple-bogeyed the seventh hole in round one and he was matched in-running at as high as 230.0229/1 in 2023 but he too was up with the pace at halfway.

He was trailing by seven in a tie for 44^th after the opening round but a sensational 65 on Friday saw him climb up into a tie for second and Pieters was in the van throughout in 2022.

The Belgian was always inside the top six places and he was never more than two strokes adrift in-between rounds. And that was despite of the poor weather.

Keeping an eye on the forecasts is essential here. If the wind lays down for four days, the scoring will always be very good, as it was last year, and we need to be concentrating on the frontrunners but that's unlikely given the courses whereabouts and there was a huge draw bias in 2022.

On a fairly benign first day, Scott Jamieson shot a bogey-free nine-under-par 63 to lead Viktor Hovland by a stroke and the average score on day one was 71.36 but it was a completely different story on day two when the wind howled, and the average score was 75.55!

There was a draw bias of 1.29 in favour of the AM-PM starters and Jeff Winther was the only player to break 70 on Friday.

Julien Brun and Jamie Donaldson also shot 69 but they came back to the course on Saturday morning to finish their rounds off after play had been suspended on Friday because of the wind.

As an indication of how different the two days were, the longest drive on the second hole on Thursday was Sean Crocker's 334-yard smack. The furthest anyone hit it off the tee on Friday was 264 yards (David Law). And this is what Robert MacIntyre had to say about the conditions on day two.

"This is as tough as I've played in I think since Royal Portrush. I maybe got two holes in The Open like this, but I think I've played maybe three holes where it's not been off my right side and for me being a left-hander that's the hardest wind."

With the wind far less punishing, the draw bias in 2023 was only 0.44 in favour of the PM-AM side of the draw and last year, incredibly, there was no bias whatsoever with both sides of the draw averaging 0.1 of a stroke more in the afternoon on each of the first two days.

With a small field of just 70, the spread isn't long timewise so we need quite a change in the weather to cause a significant bias but it's definitely something to bear in mind.

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Bobby Mac value to double up in Abu Dhabi

With the likes of Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick and Ludvig Aberg all in the field, it's highly likely that we will witness a high profile winner on Sunday at Yas Links. But the one I like towards the head of the market is links specialist, Robert MacIntyre, who's bidding to win back-to-back events following his impressive four-stroke victory in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship last time out.

The Alfred Dunhill was reduced to 54 holes due to poor weather but that didn't stop the 29-year-old winning with ease and it wasn't the first time he'd demonstrated a liking for links golf.

MacIntyre was matched at a low of just 1.141/7 to win the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club two years ago before Rory birdied the last two holes to deny him, but the Scot bounced back 12 months later to edge out Adam Scott there by a stroke.

After coming close to winning the US Open in June, MacIntyre finished runner-up to Scottie Scheffler in the BMW Championship in August before he enjoyed victories in the Ryder Cup and at St Andrews last month, so it's been a fabulous year already.

After a missed cut back in 2022, Macintyre has finished only 20^th and 19^th in his last two visits to Yas Links but he sat seventh with a round to go last year before a pedestrian 69 on Sunday saw him slip back and there's no reason that he can't improve on his record here.

As a fabulous links exponent enjoying his best year to date, MacIntyre looks very fairly priced at 18/119.00 on the Exchange given he's no bigger than 15/116.00 on the High Street.

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Now read Andy Swales' guide to Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship form stats

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