The Punter's In-Play Blog: Sensational 63 sees Vegas hit the front in Minnesota

• Kuchar fairly priced at 4/1

• Fishburn and Davis still in the hunt

• Wallace and Burns chanced from off the pace

08:25 - July 28, 2024

Taylor Pendrith led the 3M Open by two at halfway and he was matched at as low as 2.47/5 when he played his first six holes of round three in two-under-par, but he lost his way badly after that, playing the next five holes in five-over! He now sits tied for ninth and six off the lead and yesterday's Top 5 Finish lay looks like a good move.

My Find Me a 100 Winner fancy, 130.0129/1 chance, Patrick Fishburn, briefly led the event when he posted an eight-under-par 63, but with the field ripping up the back-nine, he was soon caught and passed and it's another 130.0129/1 chance, Jhonattan Vegas, that shows the way with a round to go, after he too shot 63 on Moving Day.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 8:20.

Jhonattan Vegas -16 2.588/5
Matt Kuchar -15 5.14/1
Maverick McNealy -14 6.05/1
Sahith Theegala -12 13.012/1
Patrick Fishburn -12 23.022/1
Cam Davis -11 24.023/1
Adam Svensson -11 44.043/1
Matt Ne Smith -11 60.059/1
Taylor Pendrith -10 75.074/1
Matt Wallace -10 110.0109/1
J.J Spaun -10 120.0119/1
Sam Burns -9 120.0119/1
-9 and 500.0499/1 bar

As highlighted yesterday, three of the first five tournament winners have come from slightly off the pace at halfway and we witnessed a number of players make a big move in round three yesterday but all five winners to date have been in the van after three rounds.

The first two winners, Matthew Wolff and Michael Thompson, were both tied at the top after 54 holes, last year's winner, Lee Hodges, was five clear, and the other two winners were inside the top-four places.

The 2021 winner, Cameron Champ, sat fourth and two off the lead after three rounds and although he trailed by five, Tony Finau sat tied for third and he benefitted from an awful late collapse by the third-round leader, Scott Piercy.

Piercy had led by four after 54 holes and he was matched in-running at just 1.21/5 on Sunday before eventually posting a 74. Finau went on to win by three.

Vegas came home in six-under-par on the back nine yesterday afternoon and he's now the man to beat but he looks short enough to me given what's at stake and how long it's been since he was in this position.

The Venezuelan, who turns 40 next month, won the third of his three PGA Tour events back in 2017 when he successfully defended the Canadian Open title and it's eight years since he led a PGA Tour event with a round to go.

Vegas led the Barbasol Championship by three in 2016 but finished only fourth and he'd been six clear at halfway!

Victory would not only see him win for the first time in seven years, but it will also see him climb into the crucial top-70 in the FedEx Cup Standings, so there's a lot on the line.

He may well kick on and claim the title but I'm more than happy to watch him do so unbacked at around the 6/42.50 mark.

The problem with opposing Vegas is that his immediate challengers are also hard to fancy.

Maverick McNealy, who sits alone in third and two off the lead, is yet to win on the PGA Tour, and he's been poor in-contention whenever he's had a chance.

He's twice failed to convert a 54-hole co-lead and although sitting seventh and eighth, on the last two occasions that he's trailed by three with a round to go (the 2016 Texas Open and the 2016 Farmers Insurance Open), he's shot 74 and 75 on Sunday to finish 35^th and 30^th.

By process of elimination, the 46-year-old veteran, Matt Kuchar, is the value play at odds in excess of 4/15.00.

The nine-time PGA Tour winner has been a bit wobbly with the flatstick (missed a three-footer on the fourth yesterday) and his round three score was greatly improved by a brilliant tee-shot on the par three 17^th and this chip in eagle at 18 but he leads the all-important Strokes Gained: Approach category after three rounds and 4/15.00 looks very fair.

KUCH!!!

Matt Kuchar holes it for eagle on the par-5 18th to tie the lead @3MOpen. pic.twitter.com/oTnkeBn0vD

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 27, 2024

I obviously haven't given up on Fishburn, who trails Vegas by four and my 48.047/1 pre-event pick, Cam Davis, is still on the premises but they're going to have to go super low if the front three don't all struggle.

Looking a little further down the leaderboard, if the front three do flap around in front, and that's perfectly possible, Matt Wallace and Sam Burns are possible candidates from off the pace at triple-figure prices.

Wallace has twice won from slightly off the pace on the DP World Tour and he was three off the lead when he won the Corales Puntacana Championship on the PGA Tour last year. And Burns certainly knows how to go deep.

He made a huge move at the Open Championship last Saturday, climbing from tied 28^th and ten back to tied second and one off the lead. He was poor on Sunday, and he tumbled back down the leaderboard, but he's made similar big moves on a Sunday too.

Burns was beaten in a playoff at the St Jude Invitational in 2021, having sat eight off the lead with a round to go, and he beat Scottie Scheffler in extra time at the Charles Schwab Challenge two years ago, having sat tied for 17^th and seven back through 54 holes.

The stats for the first five renewals suggest an off the pace winner is unlikely but the front three look a bit weak and five events is a very small sample size so I was happy to chance Wallace and Burns at huge prices.

09:55 - July 27, 2024

Pre-event 400.0399/1 chance, Matt Ne Smith, spend almost five hours atop of the 3M Open leaderboard after his seven-under-par 64 yesterday morning but he was caught and passed late on when Canada's Taylor Pendrith birdied three of his last four holes to hit the front. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:45.

Taylor Pendrith -12 3.45
Matt Ne Smith -10 16.015/1
Andrew Putnam -9 16.015/1
Jacob Bridgeman -9 29.028/1
Doug Ghim -8 18.5
Jhonattan Vegas -8 23.022/1
Alex Smalley -8 48.047/1
Lanto Griffin -8 60.059/1
Sam Burns -7 15.5
Sahith Theegala -7 19.5
Kurt Kitayama -7 25.024/1
Andrew Novak -7 50.049/1
Matt Kuchar -7 80.079/1
Gary Woodland -7 80.079/1
Justin Lower -7 90.089/1
Stewart Cink -7 140.0139/1
Robert Streb -7 250.0249/1
Tony Finau -6 17.016/1
-6 and 50.049/1 bar

Lee Hodges, who has missed the cut by a country mile this week, amassed a total of 24-under-par when claiming the title 12 months ago but a combination of thick rough and blustery conditions have kept the scoring in check this time around and its noticeable just how many veterans are featured on the leaderboard.

The forecasts suggests that the wind will continue to blow steadily over the weekend, gusting to more than 20 mph, so we've got very little chance of seeing someone get to Hodges' total.

The obvious place to start is with the leader, Pendrith, who was a pick on debut last year at 90.089/1 when he missed the cut, so it's a bit frustrating to see him in front at halfway this time around but will he stay there?

Pendrith was a pick because of his form at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, an event that clearly correlates nicely with this one.

He finished runner-up at the RMC on debut in 2022 and he was tied for the lead at halfway in 2023 before eventually finishing 14^th.

Pendrith, who was generally a 55.054/1 chance before the off this week, finished ahead of only Peter Malnati at the RMC this year but that was one of very few poor performances this year and he's looking to win his second PGA Tour event just two months after his first.

The Canadian won the CJ Cup Byron Nelson in May but if the truth be told, he was a fortunate winner.

Ben Kohles was matched at a low of 1.111/9 but he bogeyed the 72^nd hole to hand the title to Pendrith. Kohles was the only man all day to drop a shot at the straightforward par five finishing hole so the Canadian has to be viewed as a bit of a lucky winner.

Pendrith will be keen to kick on and win this one, but he hasn't been entirely reliable in-contention.

He finished fifth at the Bermuda Championship in 2021, beaten by three, having led by three with a round to go, and he's only once converted a 36-hole lead, having led or been tied for the lead seven times. And that was way back in 2019 on the Canadian Tour.

He also sat third and just two off the lead at halfway at the Barracuda Championship last time out but shot 70 in round three to slip to 18^th. He rallied on Sunday to finish fifth but that wasn't a great performance for a recent winner in a weak event.

I'm in no rush to side with Pendrith and I was happy to lay him at around 1/21.50 in the Top 5 Finish market.

Looking at the previous five 3M Opens, Michael Thompson was tied for the lead at halfway when he won here in 2010 and Hodges was four in front last year, but the other three winners all made up ground over the weekend, trailing by four, six and eight strokes.

Given who's leading, how condensed the leaderboard is, and the past results here, other than laying the leader to finish inside the top-five at odds-on, I'm happy to leave the event alone for now and take another look tomorrow.

11:20 - July 26, 2024

Although there was a differential in the scores of only less than half a stroke, with the morning starters averaging 70.15 and the afternoon starters 70.6, the first-round leaderboard at the 3M Open is dominated by yesterday's early starters.

Pre-event 510.0509/1 chance, Jacob Bridgeman, shows the way after an eight-under-par 63, and the only man inside the top-five and within two of the lead, that started the event yesterday afternoon, is Andrew Novak.

There are 13 players within three of Bridgeman's lead and ten of them don't start their second rounds until the afternoon today.

Taking charge in the Twin Cities @JacobBridgeman1 holds the solo lead @3MOpen. pic.twitter.com/8u1jBWuMdX

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 25, 2024

The pre-event favourite, Tony Finau, is still at the head of the market after a four-under-par 65 yesterday morning but the one I like this morning is Kurt Kitayama.

The Californian, who won the prestigious Arnold Palmer Invitational last year, shot a five-under-par 66 yesterday afternoon despite a slow start and a cold putter.

The 31-year-old was one-over par after six holes, but he found his groove after a birdie at the par for 16^th (his seventh hole) and if the putter warms up a bit today, he could make a move with a nice early start.

Kitayama ranked 53^rd for Putting Average and 66^th for Strokes Gained: Putting yesterday but the important stats at TPC Twin Cities over the first five editions have been Greens In Regulation and SG: Approach. After round one, Kitayama ranks eighth for GIR and second for SG: Approach, suggesting his iron play is on point.

Looking at the first five editions, the jury is out as to whether a fast start is necessary here.

Lee Hodges won wire-to-wire 12 months ago, Tony Finau sat third and two off the lead after the first round when he won here two years ago and Michael Thompson, the 2020 winner, trailed by a stroke after 18 holes before leading all the way after that but the other two victors started very slowly.

The inaugural winner, Matthew Wolff, sat tied for 49th and seven adrift and the 2021 winner, Cameron Champ, was five off the lead and tied for 38^th.

It's clearly wide-open, with the favourite, Finau, trading at 9/110.00 and caution is advised at this early stage but I was happy to add a modest wager on Kitayama at 16/117.00.

Pre-Event Picks:
Tony Finau @ 15.014/1
Cam Davis @ 48.047/1
Lee Hodges @ 95.094/1 (added after preview published)

In-Play Picks:
Kurt Kitayama @ 17.016/1
Matt Kuchar @ 5.14/1
Matt Wallace @ 110.0109/1
Sam Burns @ 120.0119/1

In-Play Trade:
Taylor Pendrith layed @ 1.564/7 (Top 5 Finish)

Find Me a 100 Winner column

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