3M Open: Canadian pair fancied in Minnesota

• Approach play key around TPC Three Cities

• Recent Rocket Mortgage Classic correlates nicely

• Check out the Bubble Boys

Tournament History

We're back to more ordinary fare this week following Brian Harman's win in the 151^st Open Championship - as the PGA Tour pitches up in Minnesota for the 3M Open.

The 3M Open is a relatively new event and this will be just the fifth edition.

Venue

TPC Three Cities, Blaine, Minnesota.

Course Details

Par 71, 7, 431 yards

Stroke Index in 2022 - 72.78

The Arnold Palmer designed TPC Three Cities opened in 2000 and in addition to the first four renewals of this event, it was also the host course for the 3M Championship on the Champions Tour between 2001 and 2018.

Prior to the inaugural edition of this event in 2019, it was said of the course that "the former sod farm had been transformed into a rolling landscape featuring 27 bodies of water, restoring several natural wetlands while framing holes with stands of mature oak and spruce trees."

Kenny Perry won three of the last five editions of the 3M Championship, winning the final edition after shooting 60 in round two. David Frost won the 2010 edition by seven strokes with a 25-under-par total and three of the last five winners amassed a winning score of at least 20-under-par. And Champions Tour events are staged over just three rounds!

Following Perry's final win here, and prior to the inaugural staging of this event, the course was altered somewhat and Minnesota native, Tom Lehman, who also helped with the initial design, was brought in to oversee a toughening up of the track. Mature trees were planted, fairways were narrowed slightly, new tees were constructed, and the course was lengthened by 354 yards in total. It certainly made a bit of difference although the eventual winner, Matthew Wolff, still got to 21-under-par.

Further changes were made prior to the 2020 edition. Fairways were narrowed on five holes, including the par five 18th, and bunkers on 10 holes were reworked but it made very little difference to the scoring.

The average sized Bentgrass greens have been set at 12.5 on the Stimpmeter for each of the first four renewals.

Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 19:00 UK time.

First Four Winners with Exchange Prices

• 2019 - Matthew Wolff -21 220.0219/1
• 2020 - Michael Thompson -19 230.0229/1
• 2021 - Cameron Champ -15 120.0119/1
• 2022 - Tony Finau -17 13.012/1

What Will it Take to Win the 3M Open?

We've only had four renewals so we probably shouldn't get too hung up on the stats, but it looks like accurate approach play is the key to playing well here.

Looking at the traditional stats, the first four winners have ranked 36^th, 46^th, eighth and 16^th for Driving Distance and they've ranked 31^st, 22^nd, 49^th and sixth for Driving Accuracy. And they've ranked 21^st, 51^st, 40^th and third for Strokes Gained Off the Tee so last year's winner, Tony Finau, is the only one of the four with a noteworthy tee game.

Neither the inaugural winner, Matthew Wolff, or last year's champ, Finau, putting sensationally, but the two winners in-between did.

Wolff ranked only 39^th for Strokes Gained Putting and sixth for Putting Average and Finau ranked 42^nd and 37^th but Michael Thompson ranked first for SGP and 20^th for PA and the 2021 winner, Cameron Champ, topped the rankings for both of those stats.

It's been a similarly mixed bag for the stats around the green. The last three winners have ranked second, sixth and first for Scrambling and Finau also ranked second for Strokes Gained Around the Green, but Wolff ranked 18^th for SGATG and Thompson and Champ only ranked 53^rd and 48^th.

Finau ranked third for both Greens In Regulation and Strokes Gained Approach, Wolff ranked sixth and second and Thompson ranked third and fourth for those two stats.

Champ only ranked 22^nd for GIR and 19^th SGA but Louis Oosthuizen, who finished tied for second, ranked first and second for those two stats, so they're the two metrics to concentrate on.

Is There an Angle In?

The Rocket Mortgage Classic appears to correlate very nicely.

A year after winning the inaugural edition of this event, beating Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa by a stroke, Wolff finished runner-up to DeChambeau in the second edition of the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and Morikawa, who hasn't played in this event since he finished tied second in 2019, was beaten in a three-man playoff in his first appearance in the Rocket Mortgage earlier this month.

Rickie Fowler, who shot 64 here to lead after round one two years ago when not playing well (finished T32), won the recent playoff at the RMC and the third man in the playoff was Adam Hadwin, who has form figures in this event reading 4-6-38, He was also fourth in the RMC in 2020.

In addition to those three, Max Homa, Cameron Tringale and Richy Werenski have contended strongly at both events, Brian Harman has finished inside the top ten at both venues, last year's runner-up here, Sungjae Im, and both Troy Merritt and Wyndham Clark have top-eight finishes at both courses, Lucas Glover and Danny Willett have finished inside the top-seven at both tracks, and lesser lights Brian Stuard and Ryan Armour have finished inside the top-six at both venues.

Alex Noren, who has RMC form figures reading MC-4-9, finished third here in his sole appearance in 2020, but Finau trumps them all, given he won both events back-to-back last year.

It looks a very strong correlation.

Avoid Open runners & get with the Bubble Boys

Now that the majors are all done and dusted, the FedEx Cup Series is looming large and everyone's jockeying for position ahead of the opening event - the FedEx St Jude Championship - in less than a month's time. Only the top-70 on the Fed-Ex Cup standings make it to the event so anyone in and around the 70 mark may well play better than they have for some time.

Conversely, those that contended in last week's Open Championship at Hoylake could well be jaded and they might struggle to lift themselves for what's just a run of the mill event. Especially if they've already secured enough Fed-Ex Cup points to guarantee a place in the playoffs.

Finau won last year after playing in the Open, but he was never in-contention - finished 28^th after making the cut on the number - and he'd had three weeks off before then, so he was nice and fresh.

For the fourth week in-a-row, if we disregard the Open and the Scottish Open, the PGA Tour is taking in a low scoring tournament on bentgrass greens so form at the aforementioned Rocket Mortgage and/or any of the last three events - the John Deere Classic, the Barbasol Championship and the Barracuda Championship - is well worth consideration and I'd favour an outsider that's been creeping into form in the States over the last few weeks over one of the bigger names that's played in both the Scottish and the Open.

Finau went off favourite 12 months ago but Champ won at a big price in 2021 having finished 11^th in the John Deere Classic in his penultimate start and that's the sort of thing to be looking for.

The first three winners all went off at a triple-figure price so despite last year's result, it's been a good event for outsiders so far.

Winner's Position & Price Pre-Round Four

• 2019 - Matthew Wolff - tied for the lead 8.88/1
• 2020- Michael Thompson - tied for the lead 4.84/1
• 2021 - Cameron Champ - tied 4^th, trailing by two 17.016/1
• 2022 - Tony Finau - tied third, trailing by five 6.86/1

In-Play Tactics

We witnessed all sorts of shenanigans at TPC Three Cities in 2019, with three players trading at odds-on, and it's testimony to Michael Thompson's ice-cool finish in 2020 that we didn't see far more drama in the second renewal.

At one stage there were 22 players within four of the lead and the eventual second, pre-event 1000.0999/1 shot, Adam Long, managed to tie for the lead when posting 17-under-par, having made the cut on the number, and having sat tied for 51st at halfway.

It was a similar story in 2019 when Wolff was able to win from off the pace. He trailed by seven in a tie for 49th after round one and he was eight adrift in a tie for 35th at halfway so we know it's possible to win from off the pace. Wolff went on to win by one after firing 62-65 over the weekend.

Champ was matched in-running at 700.0699/1 on Thursday in 2021 and he ended the first round five off the lead in a tie for 38^th. He was still four adrift at halfway (T19) and two off the lead with a round to go but he was the only man to trade at odds-on and he won comfortably by two.

Scott Piercy looked in control 12 months ago when he led by four with a round to go and he was matched at as low as 1.162/13 before he played the last six holes in five-over par to lose by four.

In contrast, Finau, who had trailed by five through 4-holes, birdied 14, 15 and 16 to put the tournament to bed before he bogeyed the par five finishing hole.

Although the first two winners were leading with a round to go, it's clearly somewhere you can come with a late rattle and it's already proved to be a great course for late drama and a fantastic event for trading on a Sunday.

Market Leaders

The top-seven in the market all played in last week's Open Championship and three of the seven contended strongly - Cameron Young, Emiliano Grillo and Sepp Straka.

The world number 15, Cameron Young, who began the final round at Hoylake sitting in solo second, is the highest ranked player in the field this week but despite his lofty standing, he's still yet to win on the PGA Tour.

Clearly a remarkable talent, and especially so on links layouts, it's surely only a matter of time before the 26-year-old New Yorker gets off the mark. Until he does, however, I'm happy to keep swerving him, especially so soon after Sunday's disappointing 73 that saw him slip to a tie for eighth.

Young is playing here for the first time but one of his seven second placed finishes on the PGA Tour was at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in his sole appearance 12 months ago, so he may well take to the venue.

Last year's runner-up, Sungjae Im, was also 15^th back in 2019 on his only previous visit. He certainly has course form claims but his approach figures aren't great of late and he makes little appeal at less that 20/121.00, although last week's 20^th at Hoylake suggests he might be creeping back into form after seven starts without a top-20 finish.

The defending champ, Tony Finau, has current form figures reading 72-MC-32-45-MC-MC and is hard to fancy but the fourth favourite, Hideki Matsuyama, is more difficult to dismiss after his decent 13^th place finish at Hoylake.

Matsuyama withdrew after a 77 in round one 12 months ago, but he was seventh on debut in 2019 (his only other appearance) and his approach numbers have been strong of late.

He ranked first for Strokes Gained Approach at the US Open, 10^th for SGA and fifth for Greens In Regulation when 13^th at the Travelers Championship three starts ago and fourth for GIR in the Open last week.

Selections

Adam Hadwin missed the cut when a selection at the John Deere Classic last time out but I'm happy to overlook that given it came a week after he'd been beaten by Rickie Fowler in the playoff at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Well-rested, having not played since, and with strong recent approach numbers, course form figures reading 4-6-28, and with form at the RMC reading 4-MC-37-2, I was more than happy to take 50.049/1.

The 2021 winner, Cameron Champ, looks overpriced at 90.089/1 after an encouraging tied 17^th at the Barracuda Championship last week where he ranked 18^th for GIR.

A mercurial character, Champ can go months without making a cut but he tends to play well in the same events.

Although a three-time PGA Tour winner, Champ only has 11 top-10 finishes but four of them have come in the same tournaments. He's finished sixth and eighth at the Mexico Open and he's finished eighth twice in the ZOZO Championship, despite it being played at different venues.

Champ finished only 16^th last year when defending but he opened with 75 to sit 106^th so he played well to finish inside the top-20 and after last week's eye-catching effort he could go well again this year.

Although very inconsistent, Champ has telegraphed all three of his wins with at least a top-28 finish the week before, so last week's tied 17^th can't be ignored.

I'll be back later with my Find Me a 100 Winner column, but I have got one more that doesn't look like quite trading at triple-figures - Canada's Taylor Pendrith.

Prior to his missed cut at the Barbasol Championship last time out, Pendrith put up some terrific approach numbers when finishing 14^th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic (second with a round to go) and sixth in the John Deere Classic.

I fancy him to bounce back at a venue that may well suit his eye nicely given he was second at the RMC last year on his only previous appearance in the event.

Sitting 108^th in the FedEx Cup standings, the 32-year-old Canadian needs to finish the season strongly to play in the FedEx St Jude Championship but this could be the week it happens.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter