Open Championship Find Me a 100/1 Winner: Five long-shots to back at Royal Birkdale at between 179/1 and 649/1

Good long-shot trends at The Open

Brian Harman, who went off at 170.0169/1 in 2023, and Shane Lowry in 2019, who was a 100.099/1 chance, are the only two triple-figure priced Open Championship winners since Zach Johnson won at 150.0149/1 at St Andrews 11 years ago but Paul Lawrie closed out the last century by winning at Carnoustie at a huge price and eight of the last 22 winners have been matched at a triple-figure price so the Open has been a fair event for long-shots over the years.

In 2009, '10 and '11, all three winners - Stewart Cink, Louis Oosthuizen and Darren Clarke - went off at more than 300.0299/1 and Ben Curtis in 2003 and Todd Hamilton a year later, were almost unconsidered before the off.

Open Championship bet #1 - Kurt Kitayama @ 180.0179/1

As highlighted in my preview, 25 of the last 43 major championships (57%) have gone to a first-time major winner and 56 of the last 57 majors have been won by someone inside the world's top 50. All of which makes the world number 36, Kurt Kitayama, who's looking to win his first major championship, a plausible candidate.

Kitayama has won twice on the DP World Tour and twice on the PGA Tour and the wins were very different.

He won for the first time at the Mauritius Open at the end of 2018 with a 20-under-par total but that was closely followed by a victory in the now defunct Oman Open with a total of just seven-under-par on an exposed links link layout.

His first win on the PGA Tour was a big one, at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill, when he again riumphed with a single-figure total. But his second win in his homeland came at the 2025 3M Open when he shot 60 in round three on his way to amassing a 23-under-par winning total.

He can play scorable tracks, and he can also grind it out when conditions are tough and with no rain in the forecast, a fast and firm Royal Birkdale could get very tricky as the week goes on.

At 33, he's just the right age given the winners this century have had an average age of 32.4, and although he's yet to shine in an Open Championship, he demonstrated his ability to play links golf in tough conditions when he finished runner-up to the 2024 Open winner, Xander Schauffele, at the Scottish Open in 2022. That was the only occasion that the Scottish Open has been won with a single figure total this century.

He's coming into the event under the radar with consistent form figures reading an ordinary 22-53-25-44 but he was 10^th in the US PGA Championship five starts ago and he sat sixth after an opening 66 at the Renaissance last week so he's shown glimpses.

He was third after the opening round of the US Masters and he finished second in the Genesis Invitational in February, at another tough track, Riviera, as well as eighth in the Heritage and ninth in the Cadillac Championship.

Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 and 12 Us @ 2.01/1

Open Championship bet #2 - Eugenio Chacarra @ 330.0329/1

The hugely talented Spaniard, Eugenio Chacarra, who's only 25 and only ranked 59 in the world rankings, is playing in his first Open Championship this week. For anyone considering a bet - all those facts are negatives!

Only two of the last 10 Open winners have been aged at 25 and under but on the plus side, one of them was Collin Morikawa, who won at Royal St George's in his first Open in 2021. The other was Jordan Spieth, who won here at Royal Birkdale nine years ago.

Chacarra may not have played in an Open, but he's already won at a links venue, claiming the 2023 edition of the St Andrews Bay Championship, and he's won on the DP World Tour back-to-back as recently as last month. And the first of those two victories was in the KLM Open around a very links like track - The International.

He missed the cut in the BMW International two weeks ago when attempting to win his third event in-a-row, but he played all week in Scotland last week, eventually finishing tied for 52^nd.

Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 and 12 Us @ 2.01/1

Open Championship bet #3 - Marco Penge @ 380.0379/1

The world number 50, Marco Penge, who won three times on the DP World Tour last year, as well as finishing second at the Scottish Open, has missed a chunk of the year due to suffering with intermittent vertigo-like symptoms since he picked up a viral infection in Dubai back in November.

Having not played since missing the cut at the US PGA Championship in May due to his ailments, believed to be caused by a vestibular ocular deficiency, Penge finished a respectable ninth at the BMW International Open two weeks ago.

He narrowly missed the cut last week in Scotland with rounds of 72 and 69 and he's never made the weekend in three previous Open appearances so there are plenty of negatives, but he finished second on the Race to Dubai last year and he's a player on the up once he's healthy again.

I though he was worth a modest risk at 380.0379/1.

Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 and 12 Us @ 2.01/1

Open Championship bet #4 - Jake Knapp @ 380.0379/1

The world number 45, Jake Knapp, looks a big price at 380.0379/1.

The 33-year-old hasn't added to his tally since he got off the mark on the PGA Tour at the 2024 Mexico Open and like Chacarra, he's playing in his first ever Open Championship.

But, like the last three Open champs, and four of the last five winners, he's American, and I though he was just worth chancing at a huge price.

Knapp missed the cut in Scotland last week and he hasn't been great for a few months now but he finished 11^th in the US Masters in April, and he'd been in brilliant form before that.

He kicked off 2026 with a top five finish at the Farmers Insurance Open and that was followed by eighth placed finishes at both the Phoenix Open and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and top sixes at both the Genesis Invitational and the Houston Open.

He needs something to click this week but he's a huge price for such a talented and likable player.

Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 and 12 Us @ 2.01/1

Open Championship bet #5 - Casey Jarvis @ 650.0649/1

Playing in his first Open at the tender age of just 22, it's highly likely that this year's renewal is a bit early for the two-time DP World Tour winner, Casey Jarvis, but he's straight out of the top drawer and he reminds me a bit of the 2010 Open winner, fellow South African, Louis Osthuizen, who hacked up at St Andrews by seven strokes, despite coming into the event with current form figures reading MC-MC-21-20-MC-MC.

Oosthuizen arrived at St Andrews completely under the radar, despite having won his first DP world Tour event four months earlier in Spain.

Jarvis goes to Royal Birkdale with current form figures reading MC-MC-38-21 so he's playing better than Louis was 16 years ago and the fact that he broke 70 every day in Scotland last week bodes quite nicely.

Like Louis, Jarvis got off the mark four months before the Open, with back-to-back victories in Kenya and South Africa, and he traded at a low of just 1.774/5 to win for a third week in-a-row when finishing second at the Joburg Open.

It's perfectly understandable that he's had a bit of lull after that hot-streak but he's been hinting at a return to form of late and last week's performance at the Renaissance Club caught my eye.

Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 and 12 Us @ 2.01/1

Now read Dave Tindall's each-way tips for The Open