Dave Tindall picks out his best bets at Whistling Straits this week, and believes the USA can lead from start to finish...
"Although the Americans have only won two of the last three Ryder Cups on home soil, they led after day one in all three."
Home advantage is the key factor
As usual as Ryder Cup week goes on and I watch highlights of past European glories, the creeping thought is that they'll again prove more than the sum of their parts and the magic will carry them to glory once more.
But the head still says the Americans and I'll stick with my guns.
My core belief remains that the home side in any Ryder Cup has a serious advantage and, as stated in the podcast (scroll to the bottom of the story to listen), six of the last seven have been won by the host. And but for the miracle of Medinah it would be all seven.
It's a massive ask for Europe and 9/4 just doesn't seem big enough for what would be an incredible achievement.
I'm not backing the USA at 4/9 either but there are ways to get around it.
Margin could be significant
First, I'll also take a stab at the final score and go USA 16-12 and USA 16.5-11.5.
The last two home American triumphs were by six (2016) and five (2008) so it's reasonable to think the win could be a large one.
Europe won by seven last time so both sides don't let up when over the line.
USA can go wire-to-wire
Secondly, let's head to the Lead After Day 1 - Lead After Day 2 - Final Result market where I like USA-USA-USA at 15/8.
Although the Americans have only won two of the last three Ryder Cups on home soil, they led after day one in all three.
It's also worth noting that Europe led after day one in 2014 and 2018 before going on to hoist the trophy.
Take the US to lead after each day at just under 2/1.
Thomas special makes appeal
I like Justin Thomas for top US points scorer but there's a way to bump up his price of 11/2 to 12/1.
That's by heading to the #OddsOnThat market.
The bet combines JT and the aforementioned Day 1-2-3 bet: Justin Thomas to be top USA points scorer & USA to lead after day 1, lead after day 2 & lift the trophy.
Thomas was top points scorer in the last Ryder Cup with four points while he also top scored in the 2019 Presidents Cup, banking 3.5.
After a slightly disappointing year, he'd love to end it with a bang and his reputation in this format suggests he can make it happen.
Listen to our special Ryder Cup Golf...Only Bettor podcast
Schauffele can shine
Xander Schauffle is making his Ryder Cup debut this week but if we know one thing about the American, it's that he's a quick learner.
His first start in a US Open produced a top-five finish in 2017 while he was runner-up at The Players Championship on debut in 2018. First start in the Olympics? Yep, he won that earlier this summer.
Of greater relevance perhaps was his debut in the Presidents Cup, an away tie in Australia.
There were two things to note: he played all five matches and scored three points to finish as joint-second highest scorer.
Schauffele played all four matches with (the now very in-form) Patrick Cantlay and their partnership looks almost certain to be reprised here. They're great friends off the course too.
He said earlier this week: "I do pair well with others. I'll be pulling from certain experiences from Melbourne to get in the flow of things."
The laid-back Californian also said on Wednesday that he doesn't feel like a rookie so I expect him to settle right in. He added that he's been playing well in practice and is already a fan of the course so everything looks in place.
It's 5/4 that Schauffele wins Over 2.5pts and that looks a reasonable ask.
Look to Lowry for Top Rookie
There are just three European rookies on the team this year and one, Bernd Wiesberger, is unlikely to see much action.
That leaves it a probable head-to-head between Shane Lowry and Viktor Hovland and I'm going to go for the Irishman at a hefty 17/10.
On many courses, Hovland would probably be the bet at 8/11 but Whistling Straits may just suit Lowry more.
Lowry was excellent on another Pete Dye track by water when tied fourth in the PGA Championship at Kiawah Island recently while Hovland had to settle for tied 30th in that event.
It could be a little cool and gusty at times this week and Lowry should be given plenty of opportunities to shine by Padraig Harrington. As could Hovland of course.
But at the odds, Lowry is the pick.
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