After tipping Collin Morikawa at 28/1 to win last week's US PGA, Dave Tindall is back with three each-way selections for the action at Sedgefield Country Club..
"Recent editions suggest Strokes Gained: Approach is a key metric (the last three winners ranked 1st, 3rd, 3rd and 2nd in that category) and Reavie was 2nd for SGA at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude."
Main Bet: Chez Reavie each-way @ 50/1
After a tough week at the US PGA in San Francisco, I'm going to adopt a familiar post-major tactic and avoid those who were under the gun and in contention at Harding Park.
And that rules out plenty of the market leaders such at Brooks Koepka, Paul Casey, Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Rose.
I don't want Webb Simpson either at a single-figure price despite his obvious credentials so perhaps 16/1 Patrick Reed, the 2013 winner, would be my preference at the front of the betting. He finished T13 at Harding Park but only arrived in the top 15 after a closing 66.
So, instead, I'll turn to a player who I didn't expect to see at 50/1.
Yes, there are some big names on show but Chez Reavie lived with the world's best just a couple of weeks ago when tied sixth at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational.
But for a cold putter (-4.873), he could easily have won, so clearly the 38-year-old's game is in a good place.
Finishing 75th at the US PGA may look like a step back but that course was too long for him and I prefer to assess his week in California more for its stress-free nature.
T17 and T22 in his two back-to-back events at Muirfield Village, Reavie is back on a course that suits this week.
Last year's Travelers Championship winner made the top 10 on his first two visits and was T18 after 54 holes two years ago before falling back.
This is both a Donald Ross track and a short par 70 so there are some obvious correlating tracks.
One is East Lake where Reavie was fifth in the Tour Championship last August; another is Waialae where he was third in the 2019 Sony Open.
Recent editions suggest Strokes Gained: Approach is a key metric (the last three winners ranked 1st, 3rd, 3rd and 2nd in that category) and Reavie was 2nd for SGA at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude.
This looks the right place for him to get in the thick of contention again.
Next Best: Russell Henley each-way @ 45/1
Russell Henley didn't do us many favours when carrying our cash at 28/1 in the 3M Open but I'll play him again at 45/1 here.
Henley had posted two top 10s in his previous four starts prior to that early exit in Detroit but he's steadied the ship and tied 37th at the US PGA was a decent effort.
What thrusts him back into the crosshairs is his approach play at Harding Park.
Henley ranked 5th for SG: Approach (7.109) last week and is 4th in that category in the season-long stats.
The three above him are Justin Thomas (St. Jude winner), Collin Morikawa (US PGA winner) and Paul Casey (US PGA runner-up) so he's keeping some elite company.
As with Reavie, the putter has been a hindrance not a help but C.T. Pan was a runner-up at Sedgefield two years ago with a negative SGP figure and none of the first five home in 2019 were in the top 10 for SGP.
As for course form, nothing immediately leaps off the page (46-MC-31) but he was T11 at halfway on debut in 216 and opened 68-64 last year.
In addition, some correlating course form helps his cause.
Henley is a Sony Open winner at Waialae and also took third place on his last start at East Lake three years ago.
A final point: Dominating the Par 4s has been another key to success at this track and Henley is a healthy 29th for Par 4 Scoring Average this season.
Final Bet: Adam Long each-way @ 100/1
Those coming close to selection include Si-Woo Kim and Kevin Kisner although they're somewhat short at 30s and 35s.
So having had some nice each-way returns in the last two weeks by backing players at three-figure prices - Reavie (T6) at 100s in the St. Jude and Scottie Scheffler (T4) at 125/1 in the US PGA - I'll roll the dice again.
The one I like is Adam Long at 100s.
Long was a shock, make that mega-shock, winner of the Desert Classic at the start of 2019 and that offers our first clue.
That was won on Bermuda greens (as we have this week) and with a low winning score (-26).
However, far from being a flash in the pan, he's managed two second places this year.
The first was on another short, bermuda par 70 at the Mayakoba Golf Classic while the other was just two starts ago in the 3M Open.
His scores in those two events were -19 and -17 so with this week being a birdie-fest (-22, -21-, -22 and -21 have won the last four editions) he should enjoy it.
Long missed the cut on debut here last year but we can forgive him that. Instead, I prefer to highlight what he's doing well at the moment that could make it a different story this time.
The 32-year-old from Louisiana is 39th for Strokes Gained: Approach this year and 29th in Par 4 Average.
Also 52nd for SG: Putting, he's a healthy 41st for SG: Total while accuracy is more importance than distance off the tee at Sedgefield so his combo of 60th for Driving Accuracy but 157th for Driving Distance looks the right way around.
Asked what he did well when finishing runner-up at the 3M Open, Long revealed: "A little bit of everything. I mean, I was hitting some pretty good irons and wedges into the greens, giving myself a lot of birdie chances and putted really nicely.
"I've been playing pretty well lately, just haven't had a whole lot to show for it, but was able to kind of free it up this weekend and keep the pedal down.
"To see some results kind of gives you the confidence that you're doing the right things and you're on the right track and I look forward to finishing off the rest of the season."
Long is 100/1 chance very capable of big finishes so let's go in each-way.
2018/2019 P/L: -£338.25
2017/2018 P/L: +£362.84
2016/2017 P/L: +£1179.89