WM Phoenix Open 2026: Dave Tindall's each-way picks from 50/1 to 70/1

• 50/151.00 Brooks Koepka is value to land a third win here

• 70/171.00 Andrew Novak can have another strong week

• 70/171.00 Haotong Li has made a fast start to the season

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Introduction to the WM Phoenix Open

Scottie Scheffler now wins tournaments that he's not really meant to (The American Express birdie-fest) and has made himself into one of the best game's best putters (1st for Putting Average at The Amex, 22nd for SG: Putting in 2025).

Victory at La Quinta a fortnight ago was his 20th on the PGA Tour and represented a seventh win in his last 13 PGA Tour starts.

Oh, and he's won two of the last four editions of this week's WM Phoenix Open.

Maybe you stop reading this now and just toddle off and back him at 9/43.25 - that's what Steve Rawlings is doing this week, read why here.

Where's the fun in that though?! A reminder that Scheffler was only 25th here last year and third in 2024 so he can be beaten.

His strong record at TPC Scottsdale does also highlight that this has been a great venue for course horses.

Scheffler, Brooks Koepka and Hideki Matsuyama are all two-time winners while earlier this century Phil Mickelson and Mark Calcavecchia became triple winners in Phoenix.

Even Nick Taylor in 2024 had finished runner-up the year before although let's not pretend we can answer what happened last year. Thomas Detry's seven-shot win in 2025 now seems like a weird cheese dream.

At least Detry's route to victory made sense. He ranked 1st for SG: Putting and 2nd for Approach and those are the two dominant stats when looking back at past winners. 

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Bet 1: Brooks Koepka @ 50/151.00

How about a massive storyline to really get the 2026 golf season going.

While another Scheffler victory would be admired, nothing would move the needle more this week than Brooks Koepka taking victory on just his second start since returning to the PGA Tour from LIV.

And it's hardly fanciful stuff to think it might happen.

Koepka won on his course debut here in 2015 and in his last two visits he won again in 2021 and was third in 2022.

Last week's 56th at Torrey Pines was just fine. He'd missed his three previous cuts there and doesn't like the greens.

The encouraging aspect was that Koepka ranked 3rd Tee To Green and 20th for Approach at La Quinta.

He was dead last in putting to back up the idea that he really doesn't like those surfaces.

Interviewed each day at Torrey, the five-time major winner was clearly relishing the prospect of heading to TPC Scottsdale.

"I enjoy next week. I love the chaos, I think it's fun. Yeah, it's been, what, four years since I've been back so I'm excited to get back out there to a place I'm familiar with, comfortable with and a place I love."

Koepka has always putted well on the Scottsdale greens - positive SGP figures in all five visits and in four of those he ranked 18th or better (5th on most recent start there).

And it's worth noting that the flatstick looked in decent order when he came over to play the DP World Tour late last year. He ranked 7th for SG: Putting when fourth at the Open de France and also had positive figures at Wentworth.

The 'X' factor in Phoenix is the crowd. It's the loudest and most attended tournament in world golf and Koepka is a player who relishes the atmosphere.

For him, there's nothing worse than plodding around in silence; he needs to feel the buzz to get the competitive juices flowing.

It explains why he's been so brilliant in majors and why two of his rather paltry tally of four wins outside of the majors have come here.

Koepka is 33s with eight places but his price jumps to 50/151.00 with five and the latter is worth the risk.

I feel it'll either click or it won't.

His three good finishes here are 1st, 1st and 3rd while 14 of his 18 top 10s in majors are actually top fives too.

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Bet 2: Andrew Novak @ 70/171.00

Andrew Novak did us an each-way favour last week at 75s and I'm going to push some of those winning chips back on the American here.

He looked to be swinging beautifully in the brief clips we saw and the eye test was backed up by the stats as Novak ranked 3rd for Approach. 

In addition, he putted well (15th SGP) so the key assets needed for success here are both working nicely.

Novak missed the cut last year but on debut in 2024 he finished eighth, again performing well on Approach (8th) and Putting (17th).

The 30-year-old had actually missed the cut on his first three starts of that 2024 season so he really did find something in Phoenix.

That eighth place sparked a run of three straight top 10s and it seems to be a Novak trait. Last year he enjoyed a Ted Rogers run of 3-2-1 at the Texas Open, Heritage and Zurich Classic.

Now 35th in the world rankings (just a spot behind Jason Day), Novak deserves more credit than the market is giving him.

He rounded 2025 off with seventh at the RSM Classic before winning the Grant Thornton Invitational with Lauren Coughlin and now he's coming in off another strong show at the Farmers Insurance.

I'll play him in the 10 Places market at 70/171.00.

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Bet 3: Haotong Li @ 70/171.00

If there was a route to Detry's bizarre win, it was that he had a decent record in the DP World Tour's desert events.

The Belgian had made the top 20 in each of his last three starts at the Qatar Masters and had top 10s in the Dubai Desert Classic, Abu Dhabi Championship and Ras al Khaimah Championship.

Haotong Li can better that. The Chinese golfer won last year's Qatar Masters, he's also captured the Dubai Desert Classic and his most recent desert test ended with eighth in November's DP World Tour Championship. 

That liking for more exposed courses and open visuals has also shown up in majors.

Li has a pair of top fours in the Open Championship (2025 and 2017) and Open champions have a great record here (claret Jug winners Calc, Mickelson and Scheffler have eight Phoenix victories between them).

If all this dot joining seems a little too esoteric, how about the obvious angle of current form.

Li ended 2025 with a pair of top 10s and after an opening 66 at the Sony only materialised into a 55th, he's really hit his straps in the last fortnight with eighth at The American Express followed by 11th at the Farmers Insurance Open.

The 30-year-old has positive Putting figures in both those good finishes but what really caught the eye was his iron play. Li ranked 5th for Approach at La Quinta and 8th at Torrey Pines.

Yes, it's his debut in Phoenix but he was also making his first starts at both the American Express and Farmers and that didn't hold him back.

Again, I'll use a bit of wriggle room by taking him in the 10 Places market.

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