Find Me a 100 Winner: John Deere form points to Dahmen

Steven Rawlings
16 March 2022
4 min read

Joel Dahmen in action at Sawgrass last week

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The PGA Tour visits the Innisbrook Resort for the fourth and final leg of the Florida Swing - the Valspar Championship - and our man's back with his idea of the best outsiders to trade...

"Form at the John Deere Classic stands up really well here and Dahmen finished second there in 2018."

Last week's Players Championship was a fascinating affair and a brilliant tournament to follow once the rain cleared but it was a frustrating one for the column.

I put too much credence in the weather forecast and when we got longer storm spells than predicted, instead of the PM-AM wave getting the better of it, the opposite side were advantaged by more than three strokes and the two players I rejected from that side, because of the potential draw bias, Paul Casey and Tom Hoge, both traded at a single-figure price.

We've got two events to ponder this week but I'm swerving the Steyn Championship on the DP World Tour. As highlighted in the preview, it's a new event at a new venue so with so little to go on, I'm happy to concentrate all my efforts on the Valspar Championship on the PGA Tour.

After last week's gruelling Players, I was keen to find someone I liked that didn't tee it up at Sawgrass and by some margin, Christiaan Bezuidenhout topped the list but he hasn't quite drifted to a three-figure price so the first of my three picks is my strongest fancy - Joel Dahmen.

John Deere form points to Dahmen

Dahmen did play at Sawgrass, and he fared quite nicely, finishing tied for 33rd after a reasonable week with the putter.

This is only Dahmen's second appearance in this event and while his tied 30th on debut in 2019 doesn't leap out as an impressive first visit, he did lead after an opening 66 on day one.

As highlighted in the preview, form at the John Deere Classic stands up really well here and Dahmen finished second there in 2018.

Back 2 u Joel Dahmen @ 160.0159/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Is Streelman set to double up?

Kevin Streelman has missed four of his last five cuts at Copperhead, but he won here nine years ago and after a very tidy tied 22nd at Sawgrass last week, he could just be nicely primed to become the fourth player to win the title twice since as recently as 2006.

Kevin Streelman.jpg

Nobody hit more fairways than Streelman last week and he ranked a respectable 18th for Greens In Regulation and 15th for Putting Average so he looks a little over-priced at 160.0159/1.

Back 2 u Kevin Streelman @ 160.0159/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Fresh and in-form Kitayama a ludicrous price

My final pick, who Dave Tindall also likes, was backed down to favouritism last time out yet he's been matched here at a high of 610.0609/1!

Kurt Kitayama stuck to his task nicely after leading through round one of the Honda Classic three weeks ago, eventually finishing third and as a result of that performance he was well-backed the following week in the Puerto Rico Open.

No doubt nursing a heavy Honda hangover, Kitayama gave himself far too much to do in Puerto Rico when he shot 76 in round one, but he bounced back with a 66 in round two and 67 in round three before a 71 in round four saw him slip to 28th.

This is Kitayama's first visit to Copperhead so that's a negative but on the plus side, he wasn't involved in the marathon at Sawgrass last week and as two-time winner on the DP World Tour, he's a ridiculous price at 500.0499/1.

Back 1 u Kurt Kitayama @ 500.0499/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

I'll be back on Friday with the In-Play Blog.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter