Valspar Championship Each-Way Tips: Bradley can claim Innisbrook win

Main Bet: Keegan Bradley each-way @ 51.050/1

Keegan Bradley's tied fifth place at last week's weather-hit Players Championship looks impressive enough without adding any extra details.

But when we consider that he came from the unlucky part of the draw and suffered a two-stroke penalty on Friday when the wind blew his ball on the green, the American's Sawgrass display was even more impressive.

In fact, take off his bogey-double bogey finish and give those two penalty shots back and he wins by a shot!

Okay, sport doesn't work like that but regardless of the ifs, buts and maybes, Bradley played an excellent tournament in Ponte Vedra last week.

Notably, it didn't come out of thin air. He's made six cuts out of six since the calendar flipped to 2022 and that includes tied 12th at the Sony Open and tied 11th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill two weeks ago.

Although he went low in the Sony, Bradley's natural habitat is a venue where ball-striking means plenty and there isn't an over emphasis on the putter.

Welcome to the Valspar Championship where the winning score has been between 7-under and 10-under in five of the last seven editions.

Paul Casey claimed two of those with tallies of 8-under and 10-under and he's predictably short at 22/1 this week following his third place at Sawgrass.

But Bradley basically matched him there and we can get 50s.

The obvious question is: what about the course form? True, it's not in Casey's league but Bradley's best two performances have come in the last three editions and they include second place last year when he was the 54-hole leader.

That performance was based on strong Tee-To-Green numbers, Bradley gaining 12.852 (rank: 2nd) strokes on the field.

It was a similar case at The Players last week. The 2011 PGA Championship winner again ranked 2nd in TTG with 11.435 and he was strong across the board in the three component parts: Off The Tee, Approach and Around The Green.

He said at Valspar last year: "I think that this golf course requires a lot of good ball striking, a lot of shot shaping off the tee and into the greens and there's some tough shots that sort of help out a guy that might be good at his numbers, hitting quality shots, and normally that's what I do best. So on paper this is a great spot for me."

Let's hope it is once more.

Next Best: Bubba Watson each-way @ 51.050/1

Five days which included 17 hours of interruptions wasn't ideal for anyone in the Sawgrass field and you suspect Bubba Watson struggled with it as much as anyone.

To his great credit, he shot a stunning bogey-free 68 in the high Friday winds but it was no great surprise that such an effort on mind and body caught up with him.

Bubba was 16th at halfway apparently (no-one really knew as the rounds blended into each other) but a final 36 holes of 78-76 left him 68th and he was probably happy to pack up and leave.

But that Friday performance backed up earlier hints he's been dropping in the last month or so.

The double Masters champion was runner-up at the Saudi International after bookend 64s and followed that with four rounds in the 60s and tied 14th at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Of course, any Bubba bet worth its salt has to come with an element of creature comforts: in other words, it's almost a must to back him on a layout where he feels comfortable and has excelled before.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook isn't quite an Augusta (two wins) or TPC River Highlands (three wins) but he owns a decent body of work there.

Over the years we've seen him post a third (2010), a fourth (2019) and two other top 20s including 13th last year.

Just as important as the bare numbers, it's always a massive help if Bubba enjoys a course.

Of this venue, he said after his fourth place in 2019: "It's about greens in regulation here we figured out.

"So you had to just kind of plot along and that's kind of what I did. I hit a driver a lot because I love it, I dinked it here and there, but I hit a lot of irons off tees just to get the ball in play.

"Even if it laid back a lot further I trusted my iron game to hit some of the greens and that's really what I did."

Bubba, who ranked 1st for SG: Approach in Phoenix, is worth a punt at 50s.

Final Bet: Kurt Kitayama each-way @ 201.0200/1

Is it the worst idea to pick a player who skipped all the bad weather and inconvenience of Sawgrass?

Perhaps not, so I'll take a wild swing on a big outsider - Kurt Kitayama.

Those who have honed their games on the European/DP World Tour often do well in Florida.

And Kitayama himself has added to that reputation by finishing third at the Honda Classic a few weeks ago.

He's since followed it with tied 28th at the Puerto Rico Open where he recovered well from an opening 76 which was perhaps something of a hangover from the week before.

It certainly suggests he's enjoying the switch from the West Coast where he he failed to make the cut in four starts: Sony Open, American Express, Farmers and Pebble Beach.

Many will dismiss his top three at the Honda as a bit of a fluke or a one-off. But weren't we guilty of thinking the same about his Mauritius Open win in late 2018 which he backed up by landing the Oman Open just a few months later?

Kitayama has a habit of finding a burst of form and we saw it again in late 2019 when he went 3-4-28-2 on the European Tour, those top fours coming in Italy, France and Turkey.

And how about another strong stretch in the early part of last year when he improved by the week: 20th in Dubai, 12th in Saudi, 9th in Qatar and runner-up in Kenya.

Not surprisingly this is his course debut but it could be a good one for him.

Looking at the skill-sets required here, players will typically hit more approaches from both 175-200 yards and 250-275 yards.

Scan those two lists on the PGA Tour stats and he's one of the very few players to make the top 35 in both: 16th in Approaches from 175-200 yards and 35th for 250-275. Bradley is another (13th and 19th).

It goes without saying there are far more of the former so that's another little tick in the box for Kitayama maybe.

The 29-year-old from California, who earned his card by finishing 23rd in the Korn Ferry Tour Finals, also putted well at the Honda, ranking fifth for Strokes Gained: Putting.

Speaking there he said: "Just kind of gives myself confidence to believe I can compete out here, especially on a course like this where ball striking is a premium.

"So to be able to hit it as well as I did, I can take that I feel like anywhere.

"You know, big difference with the past few weeks is I think my putting. Finally started gaining strokes on the greens, and that's kind of been a really big game changer."

If plenty of the field are a little punch drunk from last week or slightly going through the motions as they gather their thoughts for the US Masters, perhaps Kitayama can sneak through on the blind side.

I'm willing to give him a go at 200/1.