Valspar Championship 2026: Dave Tindall's each-way picks from 25/1 to 55/1

Introduction to the Valspar Championship

The Valspar Championship has been part of the Florida Swing since 2005 and now acts as the closer of the four-tournament swing in the Sunshine State.

First contested in 2000 when part of an autumn schedule, it obviously suffers from being played after Bay Hill and Sawgrass but there's still plenty of quality names heading to Innisbrook Resort.

In fact, 13 of the world's top 20 are taking part, including defending champion Viktor Hovland.

The Copperhead Course is a tree-lined par 71 measuring 7,352 yards. It was designed by Larry Packard and opened in 1974.

It's often been said Copperhead has a feel of a layout in the Carolinas given the undulations and, with winning scores of  -11, -12 and -10 in the last three years, the par 71 has played tougher in relation to par than TPC Sawgrass.

The scorecard shows five par 3s, the usual four par 5s and nine par 4s.

Stats-wise, each of the last five winners has ranked in the top 10 for SG: Putting.

But it's far from a putting contest as those same five champions all ranked in the top 15 for Tee To Green and in the top 20 for Approach.   

Bet 1: Jordan Spieth @ 28/129.00

Jordan Spieth's 32nd place at Sawgrass doesn't look the greatest advertisement but he's only bettered that finish once in his last 10 starts at The Players Championship.

"This place has gotten the best of me in the past, and I let it get the best of me a couple times this week already," Spieth reflected at Sawgrass on Friday after finishing with a double bogey in both his first two rounds.

But overall he was pleased with his play. "I'm doing everything well. The stats aren't necessarily showing exactly how solid things are.

"Things are really good, and I need to have even more kind of patience here than I do other places. Something gets me here, and I just don't quite have the patience for it."

But closing with a 69 would have put him in good heart and he doesn't have those same mental demons here at the Copperhead Course. Far from it.

It's been a happy hunting ground for Spieth. He won this event in 2015 and that was one of four top 20s in each of his first four appearances.

More recently, Spieth took third in 2023 and last year he was 28th after middle rounds of 69-67 moved him up to 17th with a lap to go.

As for recent stats which he said weren't showing the true story, well they are pretty decent.

Spieth has ranked 16th (Bay Hill) and eighth (Sawgrass) for Approach in the last two weeks and he was top 20 for Tee To Green in both.

In February he ranked second and third for Putting at Pebble and Riviera and that good putting continued with 16th for SGP at Bay Hill.

Overall, the case for Spieth is fairly simple. In his last three starts he's finished 12th at the Genesis, 11th at the Arnold Palmer and had one of his best finishes at Sawgrass where he twice shot in the 60s.

With his previously injured wrist no longer a problem, Spieth can kick on. He's been close to something big and perhaps everything clicks here on a course he loves.

Bet 2: Brooks Koepka @ 25/126.00

In terms of being an elite ball-striker who is let's say 'mixed' with the putter, Brooks Koepka and Corey Conners offer similar appeal.

Conners has course form of 8-21-16 while Koepka was 12th in the second of his two starts here.

They're sat side by side in the betting - Koepka 25s and Conners 28s - but when it comes to knowing how to win, that's where all comparisons end.

Conners has only won twice (the Texas Open: 2019 and 2023) in 217 PGA Tour starts while Koepka has five majors.

Following his defection from LIV, Koepka didn't make much of an impression in his comeback events on the west coast but back in his native Florida he's finished ninth (Cognizant) and 13th (Players Championship). To add context, his best previous Sawgrass result was 11th so he very nearly bettered it.

Florida was also the scene of one of his five LIV wins between 2022 and 2024. That came in LIV Golf Orlando in 2023. Jon Rahm still only has three LIV wins by the way.

Koepka ranked fourth for Approach and ninth Tee To Green at Sawgrass so the only real issue is his putter.

Are there any signs of hope? Yes, he ranked 15th for SG: Putting when ninth at the Cognizant and he also gained on the greens in round one at Sawgrass.

"Made a few changes, new putter; just working on a few different mechanical things in the putting. Felt like it started to click, I guess," he said at the Cognizant.

That doesn't overly convince but Koepka is the kind of player who will find something when in contention.

And with less than a month until The Masters, he would love to bank a win to give himself the perfect boost for a run at the Green Jacket (he's twice been a runner-up at Augusta).

Florida is a very obvious place for Koepka to get it.

Bet 3: Taylor Moore @ 55/156.00

Taylor Moore started the Florida Swing with a second place at the Cognizant Classic.

He ranked fourth Tee To Green and sixth for Putting, shooting three laps of 67 and a closing 68.

That big finish got Moore into the Arnold Palmer and The Players Championship and, although he didn't hit the same heights (44th and 50th), making both cuts was a plus and he actually drove the ball better (fourth Off The Tee at Bay Hill) than he did in the Cognizant. 

Speaking at Sawgrass, Moore said: "I think momentum is a big part of the sport, for sure. But I had a really good off-season. I was excited to get started at the beginning of the year and only got into two events to start, so I was really happy to play well at Cognizant, which ultimately got me in this field."

He's of added interest here due to already having his name engraved on the trophy.

That was in 2023 when he ranked second Off The Tee. A 12th place when defending in 2024 was another strong effort and Moore was in the top six for Approach in both events.

In 2024, he said: "I enjoy places that typically don't require 20-plus under to win. Like this is a challenge. I feel like history, it's 8, 10-, 12-under kind of can get you a win at this place.

"I would consider it old school just from the aspect of it's not overly long and you really have to think your way around this golf course. When you do miss, you got to be fat sides of the greens, got to give yourself some space. Rough's challenging. Greens are typically back to front. So just kind of all the small nuances like that, that I enjoy in prepping and playing a place like this.

"It's a place I know I can grind out and shoot even par, 1- or 2-under on days that I don't necessarily have it, which is nice."

Moore is also aware of the surprisingly high number of repeat champions (four) in a tournament that only started this century.

Hopefully he - or Spieth - can add to that list.

Now read Steve Rawlings' in-depth Valspar Championship preview

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