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Valero Texas Open Each-Way Tips: Steele can snare San Antonio win

Dave Tindall
29 March 2022

Brendan Steele can claim his second title here

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The PGA Tour stays in Texas and Dave Tindall has three each-way tips for the action at TPC San Antonio...

"The Californian won the first edition here in 2011, finished fourth when defending and added eighth and 13th in 2015 and 2016. In the latter he was the 18 and 36-hole leader and second with a round to play."

Main Bet: Brendan Steele each-way @ 51.050/1

After witnessing three former finalists making the last four in last week's WGC - Dell Match Play, it's hard to not let the idea of course form creep into the brain.

It was most definitely a strong pointer at Austin Country Club and history says it should be a factor again in this week's Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio.

Last year's winner, Jordan Spieth, was a previous runner-up, Charley Hoffman has finished second on his last two visits having won the title in 2016 while Kevin Chappell won in 2017 having finished fourth 12 months earlier.

With that in mind, the planets could just be aligning for back-to-form Brendan Steele.

The Californian won the first edition here in 2011, finished fourth when defending and added eighth and 13th in 2015 and 2016. In the latter he was the 18 and 36-hole leader and second with a round to play.

What's surprising is that it appears he hasn't really done anything since, despite making every cut.

A closer look, though, shows he was 16th with a round to go in 2019 after a Saturday 67. A poor final round dropped him to 42nd.

The overall picture is pretty clear though: Steele is a huge fan of TPC San Antonio, a big old par 72 with desert visuals.

"I mean I always feel good here. The course sets up really well for me," he said a few years ago.

"It's my favourite place to come. I have good memories, good mojo. I like all the shots. I know kind of all the wind and even if I make a mistake I know it's a mistake."

A few weeks ago, we'd be completely leaning on course form due to a miserable run of five missed cuts.

But in the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill everything turned around in his long game. He gained over 10 strokes Tee to Green and only some poor putting stopped him finishing better than tied 26th.

At The Players Championship, he again struck it superbly, finishing 1st in SG: Off The Tee and was again in the top five for SG: Tee To Green. This time he improved his finish to tied 13th.

The putter remains on the cold side but it's showing some improvement and it's by far from being the most important club at this course.

If Steele strikes the ball the way he has been, he can get in the mix once more. Take the 50/1.

Next Best: Chris Kirk each-way @ 34.033/1

I'm going to repeat the formula of backing a course horse who came back on the radar in Florida by adding in Chris Kirk at 33s.

Kirk finished tied sixth at TPC San Antonio last year after a strong weekend and that built on a pair of eighth places in 2015 and 2018.

Heck, let's throw in a tied 13th from 2016 too.

The most recent of Kirk's four PGA Tour win came in Texas (Colonial) but it's been a long time between drinks as that was in 2015.

But after some troubles on and off the course, the man who played in the 2015 Presidents Cup is on an upwards trajectory once more.

After closing with 66-69-68 to make the top 15 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, Kirk was a factor in back-to-back weeks on the Florida Swing.

First, he finished tied seventh in the Honda Classic and that was followed by tied fifth in the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Both were achieved with scores of 3-under so it was no great surprise after two weeks of grind that he missed the cut at Sawgrass.

But after a good rest, there must be every chance that Kirk comes out firing again on a course where he's had plenty of good days.

Looking at his numbers at TPC San Antonio he ranked 2nd for SG: Tee To Green when eighth in 2018 and 5th for SG: Putting when sixth last year.

Picking Kirk is a fairly simple excercise in course form and current form fusion but, like Steele, he'll be going out for the win.

Steve Rawlings is also on board with Kirk so let's hope the planets align for a big win for Betting.Betfair's finest!

Others you suspect may be slightly viewing this as a dress rehearsal for Augusta next week.

That leads me on to the front of the market where Rory McIlroy (7/1), Jordan Spieth (11/1), Corey Conners (16/1) and Hideki Matsuyama (16/1) lead the way.

Conners and Spieth are the last two winners of this event while McIlroy was runner-up on his only start at the course in 2013.

Matsuyama was tied 30th on debut last year and, of course, has all that Masters pomp and ceremony on his mind ahead of next week's defence.

He'd be my least favourite of the front four.

Final Bet: Davis Riley each-way @ 51.050/1

For a third and final pick, the one I can't quite get away from is Davis Riley.

Like most, I really had my head turned by his play at the Valspar Championship where he built a two-shot lead after 54 holes and then overcame an early triple bogey in round four to make a playoff.

Yes, he lost out to defending champion Sam Burns but Riley gained plenty in defeat.

"Very solid week. A lot to build on," he said later.

"No, I can't hang my head about anything. I played a lot of good golf and unfortunately I didn't have my best stuff today and I stumbled on hole 5 and that kind of cost me.

"But at the end of the day it's a great week to build on and I'm looking forward to the next start."

It just so happens that his next start comes at a venue where he's won before and that's what makes him such an intriguing proposition.

Riley won the Korn Ferry's TPC San Antonio Championship at this course in July 2020, his second win at that level in the space of six months.

He putted the greens particularly well while it's worth noting that he ranked 1st for SG: Off The Tee at the Valspar. Strong drivers typically do well at TPC San Antonio.

I don't think I'd have played him had this come straight after the Valspar but a week off will have given him chance to digest what he did and re-focus. He's clearly been dealt a good hand given that his return to action comes here.

At a much bigger price, I looked at Paul Barjon who finished runner-up to Riley in that Korn Ferry event, a week on from taking third place on the property's other layout, the Canyons Course, in another second tier shootout.

Barjon was 10th at the American Express in January and is a good driver of the ball. He's not the worst 200/1 shot.

Austin Smotherman was that price too but has been clipped to 150s.

He's 12th in SG: Approach this season, was fourth on this course behind Riley and Barjon in 2020 and has shown some real signs of promise when tied 11th at Torrey Pines and tied 25th at the Valspar.

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