Main Bet: Sungjae Im each-way @ 29.028/1
Sungjae Im missed the cut by a shot at the US Open.
But patterns spring up in golf and history says a leading name who only played 36 holes of the major just gone can pop up and thrive the very next week. Steve Rawlings tells us as much in his Travelers Championship preview.
Perhaps there's some psychology too. They're determined to make up for it and treat the following event not as a wind down but a chance to show that they're still to be feared.
There's very recent evidence. It was a huge shock to see Jordan Spieth miss the cut at Augusta National this year given his superb Masters record but the American responded by winning the RBC Heritage at Hilton Head a week later.
Im could be on a similar path given that recent form and course fit suggested The Country Club would be an obvious place for him to shine.
Many punters backed the Korean and may now have placed him on the naughty step. But that could be a mistake.
Prior to the US Open, Im looked to be peaking after a run of five top 25s, a stretch interrupted by having to miss the US PGA due to Covid and its aftermath.
After sitting Southern Hills out, Im posted tied 15th at the Charles Schwab Challenge and then tied 10th at Memorial. He looked primed for Brookline but it wasn't to be.
However, a look at the stats in this event suggests strong driving and good putting work really well at TPC River Highlands.
That brings Im into the crosshairs as he's 12th for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and 74th in SG: Putting.
He's had two previous looks at TPC River Highlands, finishing tied 21st on debut when closing with a 66 and shooting three rounds of 68 but a modest Saturday 71 for tied 58th in 2020.
The latter came in the main year of Covid lockdown, a time when he struggled, that 58th part of a seven-tournament stretch when a 35th in the limited field WGC-FedEx St Jude was his only top 50.
In addition, course form hasn't been a great predictor.
Harris English had missed his three previous cuts in the event before taking the title in 2021 while Dustin Johnson hadn't managed a top 30 in his first three visits before lifting the silverware in 2020.
In that respect, Im's 2-for-2 record and a best of tied 21st is just fine.
Finally, Par 4 Performance is key on this short par 70 (it has two extra Par 4s) and Im ranks 2nd in that category this year.
Indeed, his first win came on a par 70 when he landed the 2020 Honda Classic at PGA National.
Forget last week and back the in-form Korean to bank his second win of the season at 28/1.
Next Best: Denny McCarthy each-way @ 67.066/1
The win for English here in 2021 followed a third place in the US Open at Torrey Pines the week before.
In 2019, Chez Reavie did the exact same thing: took third in the US Open, this time at Pebble Beach, and won at TPC River Highlands a week later.
Arguably, anyone trying to do the same this week has it easier as both those wins came on the back of West Coast US Opens.
This time, it's a short hop from Massachusetts to Connecticut as the action stays in the north east of the USA.
There was no actual third-place finisher in the US Open with Will Zalatoris and Scottie Scheffler tying for second and Hideki Matsuyama finishing fast to take fourth. Only Scheffler of that trio tees it up this week.
That means the Chez Reavie of the field this year has to be Denny McCarthy and I'm going to back him at 66s to ride the wave of his unexpectedly high finish in the US Open by challenging for the title here.
McCarthy had never previously made the top 40 in five previous major starts so in that sense his tied seventh came as a surprise. But in terms of form, it wasn't at all.
The 29-year-old from Florida had finished fifth at Memorial in his previous outing and had other good results in the last few months such as 18th in the Texas Open, 25th at Wells Fargo and 27th at Colonial.
McCarthy ranked 8th for Driving Accuracy at Brookline and 5th for Greens In Regulation which is Reavie-esque.
But his great talent, of course, is putting and that's looking as good as ever right now.
In his last five tournaments, McCarthy has ranked 5th, 7th, 7th, 5th and 7th for SG: Putting, picking up a whopping 28 strokes on the field.
He gained 6.760 strokes at the US Open so, if anything, the blade is getting hotter.
It's worth recalling that he opened with a 73 last week so making the cut from there was a decent effort.
But once reaching the weekend, McCarthy excelled by shooting a pair of 68s - the exact same scores winner Matt Fitzpatrick recorded on Saturday and Sunday.
He said later: "I played really solid. It feels weird to say, but I felt like it could have been a decent amount lower. I hit the ball so good today.
"Just really proud of myself. This is a big stage, and I'm starting to get more comfortable at these events. I'll be back for sure.
"I like where my game is trending, and I'm going to keep working hard. I have a really deep drive to get better. This is going to make me even more hungry."
All positive stuff and McCarthy is also 14th in Par 4 Scoring Average. Let's back him at 66/1.
(** Rodgers is now a non-runner **)
Final Bet: Patrick Rodgers each-way @ 101.0100/1
For similar reasons to McCarthy I'm also going to put up Patrick Rodgers at 100/1.
One day he'll win, won't he? Well, if Rodgers does finally realise all that potential perhaps it'll come when the big guns are slightly looking the other way after a week of expectation, contention and disappointment.
That description probably accounts for all the leading lights. Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and, perhaps, Sam Burns were left thinking what might have been after getting heavily in the mix while Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth and Tony Finau had the disappointment of never getting in a blow.
Rodgers too will have some regrets that he didn't go through with his effort after opening 69-68 to sit tied eighth after 36 holes of the US Open.
He was also 17th after 54 holes despite a 75 while a closing 74 left him tied 31st.
However, that matched his best finish in a major and he played the last 13 holes on Sunday in 1-under so there were plenty of positives to take.
Rodgers will also feel good vibes anytime he tees it up at TPC River Highlands.
Why? "This is the place where I played my first ever event on the PGA Tour," he said a few years ago. "No matter what happens in the future, this is always going to hold a very special place in my heart."
That doesn't guarantee anything but since that debut in 2012, he's made six of seven cuts and it includes an excellent third place in 2016.
Also tied 26th in 2018, he opened with a 65 last year before fading away.
What I also like about Rodgers this week is his strong run of Off The Tee and Putting performances.
He's 25th this season in Strokes Gained: Putting and has recorded positive OTT figures in his last six tournaments.
Piece it all together and three-figure odds for the 29-year-old (yep, there's plenty of time yet for him to reach greater heights) look attractive.