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CT Pan leads by two at Oakdale G&CC
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Six men share second including trio of GB&I hopes
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Matt Cooper stands in for Steve Rawlings
09:45 - June 12, 2023
Birdies on the final two holes of his third round allowed CT Pan to card a 66 and head into the final round of the RBC Canadian Open alone at the top of the leaderboard on 14-under 202.
He holds a two shot lead, but there are six men sharing second and ready to take aim at him on Sunday: tournament hat trick-chasing Rory McIlroy, the Englishmen Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Rose (the former looking for his first PGA Tour win, the latter hunting a 12th), and a trio of Americans seeking a first win at this level - Mark Hubbard, Harry Higgs and Andrew Novak.
Here is the top end of the scoring and prices as at 09:45:
Pan -14 5.14/1
Fleetwood -12 7.613/2
McIlroy -12 4.3100/30
Hubbard -12 14.527/2
Rose -12 6.611/2
Higgs -12 25.024/1
Novak -12 24.023/1
Taylor -11 24.023/1
Rai -11 28.027/1
Conners -10 26.025/1
-9 and 75.074/1 bar
Yesterday we discussed McIlroy's inability to go low on the par-5s this week and he has finally got under-par for the week but only just - he made one birdie and two pars on Saturday.
The last of them was a fifth par in a row to close and before that run he was matched as low as 2.245/4.
His first two Canadian Open wins came when he was tied for the lead at this stage. In the first, he sat alongside Webb Simpson and Matt Kuchar, one clear of Shane Lowry, Adam Hadwin and Brandt Snedeker, and blasted a 61 to win by seven.
Last year he was tied with Finau at this stage, chased by Justin Thomas, Sam Burns and Wyndham Clark who were two shots in arrears. He was 2.707/4 and a 62 saw him win by two.
Pan has said finding the fairway is key at Oakdale G&CC because you then have short irons in to the greens which sounds a lot like Harbour Town where he won the RBC Heritage.
Fleetwood was fourth at this stage there in April and also second with 18 holes to play at Innisbrook, which requires a similar game plan - third time lucky?
Rose has a boom or bust final round record in this event. On debut in 2004 he thrashed a 63 to land fourth and a Sunday 60 last year repeated that result. But he closed with 74s in 2005 and 2006, the latter when leading by one.
Novak's only previous top six position with 18 holes to play on the PGA Tour was followed by a 74 (last year's Puerto Rico Open), Hubbard has contended in the last two weeks but is talking of being badly in need of rest and Higgs feels good this week but is very aware he's been in poor form for a long time.
17:20 - June 10, 2023
There were a few wobbles - and there might well be again throughout the final day - but Dale Whitnell eventually stood tall in his continuing quest to land a first DP World Tour title in the Scandinavian Mixed at Ullna G&CC.
The Englishman made bogey at the second and twice scratched a double bogey on his third round card. He also saw his playing partner and nearest challenger Yannik Paul thrash a huge drive up the 18th, setting up a mere flick to the green which he knocked stiff to close Whitnell's advantage to three.
The leader's response? He drained a 15-foot birdie putt of his own to give himself a four-shot pre-final round lead on 19-under 197 (66-61-70), with third placed Richie Ramsay two blows adrift of Paul.
The 54-hole leaderboard and prices are like this at 17:20:
Whitnell -19 1.695/7
Paul -15 4.57/2
Ramsay -13 18.535/2
Van Dam -12 32.031/1
Jordan -11 65.064/1
Crocker -11 44.043/1
Sagstrom -11 30.029/1
Cowley -11 42.041/1
In the 21st century, 36 golfers have held a four-shot pre-final round lead on the DP World Tour and 23 claimed the win. The prices more or less reflect those numbers but Whitnell's non-winner status makes him at least a little vulnerable.
The worst experience of those four-shot leaders was Thomas Bjorn in the 2005 European Open who lurched home with an 86. But, curiously, three of the last five men to have been four clear carded 76s - all of them ending the week outside the top five.
The advantage for Whitnell (who, by the way, has been backed as low as 1.251/4) is that he is so clear of so many in the field.
Paul and Ramsay have something of a free run at him and Ramsay did win the 2009 South African Open from five back, but I'd favour the German and would bite at an offer of 5.04/1.
Van Dam, Crocker, Sagstrom and Cowley will need to keep the pedal to the metal if they are to interrupt the progress of the leader. They were brilliant in all going sub-65 in round three but they need more of that.
Back tomorrow morning with a look at the RBC Canadian Open finale.
09:45 - June 10, 2023
In contrast to the separated field in Sweden, the RBC Canadian continues to have a packed leaderboard and heading into the weekend there are 31 golfers within five shots of the leader Carl Yuan whose rounds of 68-67 leave him one clear on 9-under 135 at Oakdale G&CC.
Here are the leaders and prices as at 09.45:
Yuan -9 24.023/1
Rai -8 17.016/1
Hatton -8 5.39/2
Conners -8 7.06/1
Pan -8 19.018/1
Novak -7 50.049/1
Todd -7 28.027/1
Higgs -7 70.069/1
Lower -7 75.074/1
Byrd -7 95.094/1
Hadley -7 65.064/1
As is clear from those numbers, the market doesn't think much of the efforts of the previously-out-of-form and yet-to-prove-much types who fill many of the spots high up the scoring.
Rory McIlroy is 6-under for the week and available at 7.06/1, Justin Rose is on the same tally and is 15.529/2.
The big move of the day came from Hatton whose 64 vaulted him 68 spots up the leaderboard. He's been backed at a high of 42.041/1 this week and as low as 3.7511/4.
His fellow Englishman Matt Fitzpatrick travelled in the opposite direction. A 73 saw him drop from a share of fifth to T32nd. Matched at 6.25/1 he is now 60.059/1.
Yuan is in new territory. He's made only five cuts this season, his rookie campaign, and has a best of T20th. He missed a lot of cuts on the second tier in 2022 but was an impressive 9-for-10 at finding himself in the top 10 at the end of a round and then ending the week in the top 10 (one of them a win).
Conners leads the field for Greens in Regulation on this tricky test and was second at halfway in both his PGA Tour wins, Hatton came into the week ranking second for Strokes Gained Total since March 1st, and Rai might think Oakdale reminds him a little of Hong Kong GC where he grabbed his first DP World Tour win.
Yuan and Rai are 6-under for the six par-5s they've played so far, leading the field, but McIlroy is level-par, one of only four players to make the cut who isn't under-par for the long holes.
He's looking for the tournament hat trick and in the first two wins he put his foot down at the weekend: in 2019 he went 67-66-64-61, in 2022 he carded 66-68-65-62.
Note: the front nine continues to be a tough test. It played to 37.065 in round two with the back nine 34.890. Both a touch easier than round one but the gap between them grew a little.
I'll be back this evening with a look at the pre-final round position in the Scandinavian Mixed.
19:20 - June 9, 2023
Englishman Dale Whitnell carded a sensational 11-under-par 61 in the second round of the Scandinavian Mixed to post a halfway total of 17-under 127 - fully six shots better than second placed Yannik Paul who added a 68 to his first round 65.
Such is Whitnell's dominance only one other golfer is within eight shots of his 36-hole score - third placed Richie Ramsay. Here are the leading scores and prices as at 19:20:
Whitnell -17 1.9520/21
Paul -11 4.47/2
Ramsay -10 9.417/2
Catlin -8 42.041/1
Kjeldsen -7 60.059/1
Walters -7 65.064/1
In the 21st century, five golfers have held a six-shot lead at the halfway stage of a 72-hole tournament on the DP World Tour.
Two completed the win (Martin Kaymer in the 2008 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championshp and Thorbjorn Olesen in the 2016 Turkish Airlines Open), the other three finished second.
Tellingly, perhaps, the trio who didn't win all struggled in the third round: Michael Campbell in the 2001 Deutsche Bank SAP Open carded a 73 to fall one back, Ian Poulter in the 2014 Turkish Airlines Open shot 75 to also fall one back and last autumn Rasmus Hojgaard laboured to a 74 in the Open de France to see his advantage drop to one.
Campbell was caught and passed by Tiger Woods, Poulter was chased down the now five-time major championship winner Brooks Koepka, and Hojgaard ended his week four clear of all but one man - that was Guido Migliozzi who flew home with a 62.
That suggests it takes a multiple major winners or something spectacular to rumble the kind of advantage Whitnell currently holds.
Against that, Whitnell is yet to win on the DP World Tour. Indeed, he is yet to land a top three finish in 105 starts.
Steve Rawlings likes to highlight how often a player on this circuit trades odds on and fails to win - it might be worth bearing in mind again this week.
The better news for Whitnell is that his Challenge Tour win in 2019 proved he can keep going low as he carded 70-64-64-63. And how has he responded to sub-64 scores on the DP World Tour? A small sample and mixed results: a 63 this year was followed by a 76 and a 63 last year came before a 68.
Backed to small amounts between 300.0299/1 and 390.0389/1 before the off Whitnell has now been matched as low as 1.768/11.
The market has, however, very little liquidity so I'll pass on making any recommendations at this stage. I'll be back in the morning with an update from the RBC Canadian Open.
09:50 - June 9, 2023
As with the DP World Tour, the PGA Tour is playing a new venue this week.
Oakdale G&CC is short and the field didn't overpower it on Thursday but the leaderboard is tightly packed with four co-leaders, 28 players within two shots of top spot and 69 within five strokes.
Here is the top of the first round scoring with prices as of 09:50:
Rai -5 25.024/1
Lower -5 75.074/1
Conners -5 8.415/2
Hadley -5 70.069/1
Byrd -4 220.0219/1
Garnett -4 140.0139/1
Fitzpatrick -4 8.27/1
Hubbard -4 40.039/1
Gerard -4 110.0109/1
Todd -4 38.037/1
SH Kim -4 44.043/1
Gordon -4 44.043/1
Yuan -4 140.0139/1
Many British and Irish golfers were talked about at the start of the week but Aaron Rai was not among them.
He had been 3-over-par through five holes but bounced back to join Justin Lower, local man Corey Conners and Chesson Hadley at the top.
Conners is a touch behind Matt Fitzpatrick at the top of the market, the Englishman sitting just one back after his 68.
Yet more GB&I golfers come next in the betting: Rory McIlroy is now 13.012/1 after a 1-under 71 that featured four bogeys (two on the par-5s), Justin Rose is 15.014/1 after 3-under 69 (he was 5-under through 14) and Tommy Fleetwood is 27.026/1 following a 70.
The other names to note at this stage are Cameron Young who carded a 71 and is now 28.027/1 and Brendon Todd who Steve highlighted in Find Me a 100 Winner and is among the pack on 4-under.
What of the course? No great pattern has emerged in the stats except perhaps to point out that 10 of the 13 players who broke 69 played the trio of par-5s in 3-under.
Otherwise, there are some players plotting their way around the course, looking to avoid the thick rough, while others are utilising a bomb-and-gouge method.
Also note that the front nine (37.237) played 2.054 strokes more difficult than the back nine (35.183). Mackenzie Hughes (69) confirmed this saying: "I think if I played the front nine even-par for the week I would be really happy. And I'm planning to kind of go low on the back. That's really kind of how I see this golf course. 3, 4, 5 and 6 consecutively are bears."
Back this evening with the halfway position in Sweden.
19:30 - June 8, 2023
The morning starters had the best of the conditions at Ullna G&CC in the third running of the Scandinavian Mixed and just four of the top 17 players on the first round leaderboard played in the blustery afternoon conditions.
The two leaders, Germany's Yannik Paul and Denmark's Niklas Norgaard, carded 7-under-par 65s in the morning and the best effort of the afternoon wave is also the leading women's score - Thai rookie Trichat Cheenglab's 66.
Here is the top of the first round leaderboard with prices as of 19:30.
Yannik Paul -7 5.69/2
Niklas Norgaard -7 10.09/1
Frederic Lacroix -6 23.022/1
Dale Whitnell -6 32.031/1
Louis De Jager -6 38.037/1
Trichat Cheenglab -6 50.049/1
Nicolai Von Dellinghausen -5 60.059/1
Justin Walters -5 55.054/1
Soren Kjeldsen -5 55.054/1
Angel Hidalgo -5 42.041/1
The course is new to the DP World Tour so what have we learned so far? It's an attractive layout, a short one and it can yield birdies, but it's not entirely straightforward.
Playing the short par-4 17th hole (playing 365 yards for the men), the marquee group of defending champion Linn Grant, pre-tournament favourite Alex Noren and Scotland's Robert MacIntyre contrived to play it in a combined 14 strokes and even then Grant had to hole a putt from the fringe to avoid a hat trick of bogeys.
Moreover, at the par-3 that preceded it, both the men came up way short of the green with their approaches, struggling to pierce the wind that was whipping across the lake and into their faces.
Paul has assumed favouritism which makes sense. He was a winner last autumn and has two seconds this season.
Astonishingly, the co-leader Norgaard injured himself water skiing on Monday and didn't play a practice round. "I got here and couldn't do anything then magically something happened and I feel fine now," he said after his round.
Noren's woes went beyond the 17th as he carded a 2-over 74. He's now 110.0109/1, a reflection of his nine shot deficit but also his errant work from the tee box.
The in-form Alexander Bjork carded a 2-under and is priced 22.021/1 while my own pre-event selection Antoine Rozner is 3-under and 25.024/1.
I'll be back in the morning with the review of the first round of the RBC Canadian Open.
Scandinavian Mixed Pre-Event Selections:
Alex Noren @ 16.015/1
RBC Canadian Open Selections:
None
Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
2u Michael Kim @ 110.0109/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
2u Brendon Todd @ 140.0139/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
2u Renato Paratore @ 130.0129/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
*You can follow Steve on Twitter @SteveThePunter and Matt @MattCooperGolf