The Players Championship First-Round Leader Tips: A trio of picks from 50/1 to 100/1

• 100/1101.00 Tom Hoge has course and current FRL form

• 50/151.00 Shane Lowry has had some great times at Sawgrass 

• 90/191.00 Christiaan Bezuidenhout is in form and the course suits 

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Weather forecast for Thursday/Players Championship FRL history

Seven of the last eight players to have a piece of the first-round lead at TPC Sawgrass had a morning tee-time.

That study period includes the 2020 edition when Hideki Matsuyama opened with a 63 before the event was called off due to the pandemic. 

Chad Ramey - a long-shot bet for Steve Rawlings this week - fired a 64 to lead in 2023 and Tom Hoge a 66 to share it in 2022 but the others were all Ryder Cup players: Sergio Garcia, Tommy Fleetwood, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and Wyndham Clark.

Fleetwood, by the way, was also R1 leader in 2019.

The weather forecast suggests little wind (3-7mph) in the morning but getting a little more blowy in the afternoon.

All in all it's a pretty simple equation: history + weather forecast = pick players with an early tee-time. 

Tom Hoge @ 100/1101.00

Tom Hoge looks a must bet at three figures given his Thursday record at Sawgrass.

The former Pebble Beach winner was the joint-leader in 2022 while he also finished sixth after day one in both 2021 and 2024.

Overall, four times in the last five completed editions of The Players, Hoge has opened with a round in the 60s and that's hugely impressive.

But, in addition, the 35-year-old has also brought his fast-starting act to the PGA Tour stage in 2025.

Hoge was the FRL at both season-opening Hawaii events, firing opening 64s at both The Sentry and the Sony Open.

While he hasn't posted any significant finish since a top 20 at Pebble, Hoge was 17th after 54 holes at Bay Hill last week. 

With a morning tee-time of 08.57 from the 1st, he looks ripe to go low again.

Shane Lowry @ 50/151.00

I keep coming back to Shane Lowry in this market and will do so again at 50s.

The Irishman has had some great days at Sawgrass and his course record shows a top 10 and two further top 20s in his last four starts at the Players.

He posted a Thursday 7-under 65 on just his second visit to sit in second place, was third after 18 holes in 2021 to end day one in third, made a hole-in-one at the iconic 17th in 2022 and finished off with a 66 in round four last year.

As for current day one efforts, he's ended the first lap in the top 20 at each of his last four events. 

He set out with a 66 at the Cognizant and, in tough conditions, his 69 at Bay Hill last week put him second on the first-round leaderboard.

With current form of 7-11-39-2, Lowry is cleary in great nick and can make an impact from his 08.35 (10th hole) tee-time.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout @ 90/191.00

It was between Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Corey Conners for the final pick and I'll side with the South African, who is 30 points bigger.

With the rough up, hitting it straight counts for plenty and Bezuidenhout has ranked in the top 10 for Driving Accuracy in three of his last five starts.

That's helped him finish fourth in Phoenix and 19th at Bay Hill last week where a strong start left him second following Thursday's play.

In the abandoned 2020 edition here, Bezuidenhout fired an excellent 7-under 65 to sit tied second after lap one while his other 18-hole positions at Sawgrass read 21-5-11.

"Good memories here," he said a couple of years ago. "This golf course suits my eye, especially off the tee. These greens are so good, so if you get your putter running well, you can hole a lot of putts."

He ranks 5th for Strokes Gained: Putting this season so when adding in a morning tee-time of 09.08 (1st), the pieces are in place for a low one.

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