The Players Championship Each-Way Tips: Im for the win at TPC Sawgrass

Main Bet: Sungjae Im each-way @ 41.040/1

The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass is always one of the harder puzzles to solve on the PGA Tour.

This is no big hitter's paradise or an obvious chance for the shorties to excel.

And if it doesn't favour one style, it doesn't favour one continent either. The last 13 editions have produced five winners from the USA, four from Europe and four from the rest of the globe (specifically an Australian, a South African and two Koreans).

There are plenty of filters to put the field through and my list includes course form, current form, Florida form, All-Around ranking, Par 4 Scoring and performance on correlating courses.

This is Pete Dye's most famous creation so Dye form is worth noting while a number of players have won at both Sawgrass and Sedgefield, even though the latter is a Donald Ross design.

Let's just get straight to it and my first pick is a player whose name keeps cropping up everywhere in the above lists - Sungjae Im.

The South Korean will be trying to follow in the footsteps of countrymen KJ Choi and Si-Woo Kim by putting his name on the trophy.

This season he sits 7th on the All-Around and 9th in Par 4 Scoring. That has to bode well.

In all, 10 of the last 12 winners ranked in the top five for AA when lifting the trophy - fitting in with a quote you'll hear often this week: "there's no faking it at Sawgrass" - while three of the last five winners ranked 1st for Par 4 Scoring. There are only the usual 10 but they're key holes.

The Sedgefield link is a strong one and the list of players who have won at both includes those two Koreans again, Kim and Choi, as well as other big names such as Henrik Stenson, Sergio Garcia, Webb Simpson and Davis Love.

Im has Sedgefield form of 24-9-6 so that ticks a box.

As for success in Florida, Im has that too having won the 2020 Honda Classic. He's also posted top fours at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill and the Valspar Championship so this is one of his favourite stretches on the PGA Tour.

The exception it could be said is TPC Sawgrass and a missed cut on debut in 2019 and tied 17th last year doesn't look the best.

But they don't tell the whole story. In the Covid-affected 2020 edition which was pulled after 18 holes, Im had posted a 3-under 69. And last year his tied 17th included 6-under 66s on days two and four.

I'm slightly wary of him chucking in a poor round as he has done in recent weeks but, overall, his form this season is impressive.

Im won October's Shriners Children's Open in Las Vegas and has since added top 10s at the CJ Cup (T9), Tournament of Champions (T8) and the Farmers Insurance Open (T6).

Adding to that list are top 20s at the Houston Open, The American Express and last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational.

He ranked 4th for putting at Bay Hill and although his Approach numbers weren't great, a look through his records shows a welcome ability to suddenly click in that department.

Im recorded negative SG: Approach numbers in both the Sanderson Farms and the CJ Cup but each time he gained over five strokes SGA on his next start, one of those helping him win in Las Vegas.

There are no weaknesses when running through his stats and he looks the sort of all-round player who can have a huge week here. Back Im at 40/1.

Next Best: Matt Fitzpatrick each-way @ 34.033/1

Staying on the idea of all-round strength, I'll add in Matt Fitzpatrick, who has already been clipped from 40s.

Europeans do well here and beyond Rory McIlroy it's the Englishman who looks to have the most solid credentials.

While Tyrrell Hatton has got himself befuddled by Sawgrass (MC-MC-MC-41) and shown no signs of working it out, Fitzpatrick has started to crack the code.

The Sheffield golfer missed the cut on his first two appearances but then shot four rounds of par or better in each of the next two although having to settle for tied 46th in 2018 and tied 41st in 2019.

Last year Fitzpatrick was a leaderboard presence all week, shooting 68-68 over the first two rounds to lie second at halfway before eventually finishing tied ninth after weekend laps of 72-72.

That's now 12 straight rounds of par or better at Sawgrass which highlights his consistency.

On that very same point, check out his Strokes Gained numbers on the PGA Tour this season. He's 4th for Putting, 7th Tee To Green, 16th Off The Tee, 17th Approach and, in the one that counts the least normally, 63rd Around The Green.

Add those up and he ranks 2nd overall on the Strokes Gained stats, nicely squeezed between Collin Morikawa and Jon Rahm, who also go by the names of World Nos. 1 and 2.

This can be a stressful week so I also like the fact that Fitzpatrick seems lightly raced in recent months.

He ended 2021 with second place in November's DP World Tour Championship and after over two months off returned with tied sixth at Pebble Beach. Since then he's added top 10s at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Add in the know-how of Billy Foster on the bag and Fitzpatrick has plenty going for him.

There's an argument that last week was quite punishing but given that Fitzpatrick wasn't under the gun and hadn't played in the previous two events, that's no real concern.

Last year, the Players was his fourth start in a row which maybe explains why he ran out of gas a little on the weekend. "I'm ready for a week off," he said at halfway.

As for TPC Sawgrass, Fitzpatrick said last year: "I think some of the fairways are actually wider than they look, wider than they look from off the tee, so I think it sort of plays a little bit like that.

"I personally think the straighter hitters probably have a bit of advantage around here. Gives you more of a chance to hit more greens really," added the man who just happened to rank 1st for Driving Accuracy at Bay Hill.

It may seem an awfully big event to score your first PGA Tour win in but others such as Craig Perks and Tim Clark have managed it so why not Fitzpatrick. Clark was ranked 40th in the world at the time while Fitzpatrick is 25th. Perks was 199th!

Two further points, firstly he says Harbour Town is one of his very favourite Tour stops and a fourth there last year and top 15s in 2018 and 2020 give him a further bank of Pete Dye form.

Secondly, his form in Florida really is excellent. A runner-up at Bay Hill in 2019, he's made the top 11 in each of his last five starts in the Sunshine State.

Final Bet: Hideki Matsuyama each-way @ 29.028/1

Normally, I'd pick out a value outsider for the final bet but I'm in the hunt for the winner this week and recent history says you look at those with an extra touch of class.

Four of the last five winners at Sawgrass were major winners and you can actually make that six of the last eight.

They are: Tiger Woods, Martin Kaymer, Jason Day, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas. Fowler, the 2015 champion, was also a proven performer in the very biggest events.

So, having picked two non-major winners, I'll add in one who has tasted the ultimate glory: Hideki Matsuyama.

Since his thunderclap moment at the US Masters last April, the Japanese star has added two recent victories at October's ZOZO Championship and January's Sony Open.

Since the latter he's posted a tied eighth in Phoenix while his closing 70 at Bay Hill on Sunday which gave him a top 20 was one of the best scores of the day.

Going back to that list of filters, Matsuyama ranks 11th on the All-Around and 20th for Par 4 Scoring which adds some nice detail.

But we need something a bit more meaty to really put him forward and that comes in the shape of course form.

In seven attempts at Sawgrass, he's made the top 25 five times and that includes a seventh and an eighth. What that doesn't take into account is the cancelled 2020 event when he'd shot an opening 63 to lead the way before Covid scuppered his hopes of kicking on.

Matsuyama ranked 7th for Approach at Bay Hill so was striking his irons well (13th on the season) so just needs one of those weeks when the putter gets hot, as it did at the Sony.

He has putted these greens well in the past (5th for SG: Putting in 2016 and 23rd in 2019) and, of course, he'll walk to the tee this year with the swagger of a major champion.

Of all the elite players, he's the one you look at and think his record of recent wins - three in his last 22 PGA Tour starts - doesn't quite tally with his price so snap up the 28/1.

As for outsiders, the aforementioned Webb Simpson could be some value at 80s; he clearly loves this course.

Jason Day and Jason Kokrak are other 80/1 shots I looked at and Talor Gooch (fifth here last year and the joint-third round leader at Bay Hill) was interesting me at 66s before he was cut to 50s.