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40/141.00 Sepp Straka is in superb form and ticks so many boxes
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25/126.00 Hideki Matsuyama is a course horse with a win already in 2025
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80/181.00 Nick Tayor is a proven winner who offers each-way value
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Brief history of The Players Championship
Only one player has won The Players Championship more than twice - the legend that is Jack Nicklaus.
Even he couldn't defend the title but Scottie Scheffler heads to famed TPC Sawgrass this week with the chance to make it three-in-a-row at the richest tournament in golf.
That would be an incredible feat and very much against the overall history of this event where even dual winners are rare.
Tiger managed to win this just twice, his second coming 12 years after his first, and most of the top players have a real mix of good and bad results at Florida's showpiece event.
That's a testament to the course which rewards strong play but can seriously punish anything errant - the stated aim of iconic course designer Pete Dye.
Dye's most famous creation is a par 72 measuring 7,352 yards. It's been extended by 77 yards this year while a few other modifications to tees have been made.
The rough is up a little to four inches which will be a factor given the fairways are already hard to hit while approach play is the most consistent and important element when prioritising stats.
Also, don't come to TPC Sawgrass trying to find form. It's almost imperative to have a had a top five somewhere in the season before teeing off in The Players and none of the last 13 winners had finished worse than 33rd in their previous start.
Finally, 15 of the last 18 winners have been on the early-late side of the draw.
With the forecast looking fairly balanced on both Thursday and Friday (winds around 5mph, picking up to 9mph in the afternoon each day), it could pay to lean into that tee-time stat again.
Oh, and I've got this far without mentioning the famous 17th island green!
That could be an interesting watch on Saturday when winds hit 20mph and more for the late starters. With the extra pressure on, winds of 15-20mph on Sunday aren't for the faint-hearted either.
If I was going to write the sentence "all roads lead to Sepp Straka this week" I'd presume I was talking about something like the John Deere Classic.
Indeed, that's an event he won in 2023, the middle one of his three PGA Tour victories.
His first came at the 2022 Honda Classic, making him a past winner in Florida which is relevant to this week, while the most recent was achieved less than a couple of months ago at The American Express on another Dye layout.
As well as that win, the Austrian (who has an American mother) has five other top 15s this season.
They include seventh at Pebble and 11th (Cognizant) and fifth (Arnold Palmer) in the first two events of the Florida Swing.
As well as having the required good form, he also possesses a decent course record too.
Straka was ninth in 2022, made the cut in 2023 and shot four rounds of 70 or better when 16th last year.
He ranked 10th for SG: Tee To Green here 12 months ago, 12th for Around The Green and 16th for Approach while he was 6th for SG: Putting in 2022.
This season, Straka is 9th for SG: Approach (6th Cognizant, 10th Arnold Palmer) so really has those irons dialled in.
He was 3rd for Putting at Bay Hill last week and also 19th for SGP in Phoenix which has the same overseeded Bermuda greens as these.
What else do you want in a Sawgrass winner? Temperament and steadiness would be up there. Straka ticks those boxes too: he's a calm character and 14th place in Bogey Avoidance shows he limits the mistakes.
The current FedEx Cup leader, who finished runner-up in the 2023 Open and 16th in last year's Masters, will find you lots of fairways (11th Driving Accuracy) and even has the desired morning tee-time (8.57am from the 10th).
And finally, his last six finishes on Pete Dye courses read: Win, 23rd, 11th, 5th, 16th.
I didn't think he'd be top of my list when setting the various pre-tournament filters but there we have it... all roads lead to Sepp Straka.
Back Sepp Straka each-way
While most of the elite players have an up and down record at TPC Sawgrass, Hideki Matsuyama has far more high finishes than most.
True, he missed cuts in 2018 and 2021 but his other seven starts in The Players have all resulted in top 25s.
That doesn't do it justice either as it includes four top 10s and three of his last four finishes are sixth (2024), fifth (2023) and eighth (2019).
And let's not forget The Players Championship that never was. The 2020 event was abandoned after a day due to Covid, a particular shame for Matsuyama who had laid down a stunning 63 to lead by two (Straka had fired a 3-under 69 incidentally).
Six times in his nine starts at Sawgrass he's finished in the top 15 for SG: Tee To Green and on three occasions he's been in the top eight for Approach.
The putter hasn't always been up to scratch but that hasn't been a big key on this course.
Matsuyama, like Straka, is already a winner this year after shooting a startling 35-under to capture the season-opening Sentry tournament and he's ticked over pretty nicely since, arriving here on the back of three straight top 25s.
With two wins last year (Genesis and St Jude), the 2021 Masters champion has shown on numerous occasions that he can really hit the power button and leave world-class fields trailing - something that can't be said of plenty of his world-class peers (see Colin Morikawa last week) who can't quite separate themselves and find someone to pip them.
Matsuyama is just the kind of elite act that will get his name on this trophy and a morning tee-time of 8.24am from the 10th will hopefully fuel the start he made here five years ago.
Back Hideki Matsuyama each-way
I'm tempted to give 33/134.00 Shane Lowry another go after he landed us some each-way money last week but, like at last year's Open when I also put him up as my main bet, he let a bright start fade.
Michael Kim's stellar recent form makes him a possible at 66/167.00 despite course form of MC-MC-MC-60 but the outsider I like best is Nick Taylor at 80s.
It doesn't seem possible to be a five-time PGA Tour winner and still be under the radar - even for a low-key Canadian.
But Taylor is quick to slip down the odds lists even though he keeps lifting trophies.
Victory at the Sony Open earlier this year added to the 2024 Phoenix Open, the 2023 Canadian Open, the 2020 Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the 2014 Sanderson Farms.
There are some notable triumphs in there. Ending a huge home drought by winning the Canadian Open was special and having Phoenix and Pebble on your CV is some going too.
And while he's done the square root of nothing in majors, lining up in all these Signature events will get him used to taking on the very best on a regular basis. The mystique quickly evaporates.
Ninth at the Genesis two starts ago showed that and he hasn't finished worse than 33rd in his last six PGA Tour starts.
Stellar iron play is a big reason for that consistency and his positions of 3rd for SG: Approach and 18th for Driving Accuracy this season should further get his name flashing away for punters.
At TPC Sawgrass, the 36-year-old hasn't pulled up any trees on first glance but he's opened with a round in the 60s in half his last six starts here, was second after 36 holes last year before slipping to 26th and finished 16th in his fourth crack at Sawgrass, closing 69-69-67.
Asked after 36 holes last year if the course suited him, Taylor said: "I said at the start of the week, a lot of times here I've had a lot of great rounds. I'm happy I've been able to piece together a couple nice ones. I feel like I'm learning to scale back at times and kind of play to my strength. I think I had to lay up on three of the par 5s today, made birdie on all three of those, so that was a nice bonus."
In current form let's back him to start well again and continue it for all 72 holes.
He tees off at 8.57am alongside Straka so there's a group to watch.
Back Nick Taylor each-way