The Northern Trust Each-Way Tips: Reed can bank Boston win

American Patrick Reed
Patrick Reed can win this event again

It's the start of the FedEx Cup Playoffs and Dave Tindall is back with three each-way selections for the opener at TPC Boston...

"T10 at Memorial in his final outing in July, Reed's last two starts have produced T13 in the PGA Championship and T9 at last week's Wyndham Championship. Now he comes to a venue where he's made the top six in three of his last four visits."

Main Bet: Patrick Reed each-way @ 25/1

A look through previous results at TPC Boston shows that Strokes Gained: Tee To Green and Strokes Gained: Putting were both important when the course was used previously on the PGA Tour.

Bryson DeChambeau ranked 6th in both when winning the last event held here in 2018 while Justin Thomas was 1st Tee To Green and 8th in Putting in 2017. Rory McIlroy made the top two in both categories in 2016.

So, let's keep it simple and pick a player who ranks well in both - Patrick Reed.

The American is 25th SG: Tee To Green and 9th SG: Putting this season and that consistency in both those key elements sees him enter this three-week stretch of Playoffs ranked 6th in the FedEx Cup Regular Season Points list.

These are all a reflection of what he's done over the last 11 months of course but a latest thermometer check suggests he's peaking again.

T10 at Memorial in his final outing in July, Reed's last two starts have produced T13 in the PGA Championship and T9 at last week's Wyndham Championship.

Now he comes to a venue where he's made the top six in three of his last four visits.

Reed just happens to be the defending champion at this event and has won it in two of the last four years. The first, played as The Barclays, saw him triumph at Bethpage Black in 2016 while in 2018 he hoisted the silverware at Liberty National.

'Captain America' steps up a gear when the elite gather and his last six wins on the PGA Tour are two WGCs (the latest in Mexico earlier this year), two FedEx Cup Playoff events, the US Masters and the Hyundai Tournament of Champions.

"I feel like there's a lot of things last week that kind of fell into place with my full swing, I felt like I was dropping in the slot a little better and because of that just gave me more confidence," said Reed at the Wyndham where he closed with a 64 and struck the ball superbly on Sunday.

He made five birdies and an eagle in that closer and going low is the name of the game at TPC Boston.

The winning score there averages a touch better than 17-under so Reed's rankings of 8th in Birdie Average and 9th for Par Breakers add to his appeal.

With ideal stats, momentum, excellent course form and a reputation for shining in big events, Reed looks to have all his ducks in a row here.

Take him at 25/1.

Next Best: Adam Scott each-way @ 40/1

Aussies have a good record at TPC Boston, with Cameron Smith and Marc Leishman both making the top three in the last two tournaments held there.

But Scott was the original trailblazer on the Arnold Palmer design which was later updated by Gil Hanse and Brad Faxon.

Scott won the Deutsche Bank Championship here in 2003 and finished runner-up the following year.

He's since added a trio of top eights (5-8-7) from 2010-2012 and added a top four in 2016.

On paper, the World No.11 had it all to do in the US PGA at Harding Park two weeks ago when playing his first event since March and on a course where he'd not done anything in two previous visits.

And yet he plugged away with rounds of 68-70-70-68 to finish a more than respectable tied 22nd.

Scott hadn't just turned up in San Francisco a couple of days earlier; he'd been practising at Harding since the previous Friday.

Asked on day three what was going well, he responded: "My putting has. That's been really good. I've driven it well the last two days off the tee, but my iron play has really been struggling the last two days.

"It's close. I mean, it's far from horrible, but it's just not standing up to the test this week. You know, getting back to a competitive rhythm, hopefully that's it. I think my coach feels like everything is in a good position, but it's really just about me getting comfortable on the golf course."

Scott then hit 14 greens in regulation in a closing 68 after only managing 9, 12 and 10 in the previous three so he left on a positive note.

For a lot of players, the lack of golf would be an obvious problem. But Scott doesn't need to have the motor constantly running.

After winning the Aussie PGA just before Christmas, he packed his clubs away and we didn't see him until mid-February's tough test at Riviera - another course where he had some serious 'previous'.

And what did he do? Fired 64-67-70 over the final three rounds to beat a stellar field and and claim a 14th PGA Tour title.

Ranked 26th SG: Tee To Green and 36th in Putting (yes, really), Scott actually has two wins in his last five events so suddenly the 40/1 looks a decent each-way price given that this is a place he loves.

A nice quote to round off with? Here he is taking about TPC Boston a few years ago. "Well, this is one of my favourite events on the Tour and definitely has a special place in my heart, being where I won my first Tour event back in 2003. So always look forward to coming up to this area."

Final Bet: Billy Horschel each-way @ 50/1

Billy Horschel swing.jpg

Let's be honest, it would be no surprise if the front of the market threw up the winner again.

Rickie Fowler (World No.9 at the time), Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau are the last four winners at TPC Boston and more often than not a big name gets his name on the trophy.

DeChambeau (11/1), Thomas (12/1) and McIlroy (12/1) lead the betting and the two Americans look to have a huge chance although they're not really made for this preview where the focus is on each-way bets.

Dustin Johnson at 16s is just about an each-way price and if his putter is as hot as it was at Harding Park, he's another obvious winner.

In-form Webb Simpson (25/1) is a past winner here and it presents another good chance for Tony Finau (28/1) but instead I'll jump down to 50/1 and play Billy Horschel.

There's an obvious good news/bad news split when looking at his course form. Horschel was runner-up on his second appearance in 2014 but has done nothing in four other appearances despite the odd good round.

If we wind back, 2014 was the year he went 2-1-1 in the Playoffs to win the FedEx Cup.

Well, he's coming into this latest set on the back of a second place so perhaps the omens are positive.

Horschel will have some regrets about shooting 20-under and being pipped by Jim Herman at the Wyndham but clearly there was plenty of good.

He said later: "There's a lot of confidence to take from this. It's been a while since I've actually had a really great chance to win a tournament and this being one of them.

"I felt I played really well today, especially with not feeling great with my swing. Just really did a lot of good things and had a chance coming in. When you have a lead with three left to play with a one-shot lead and you've got three fairly makeable birdie holes, you're thinking I knew I need to at least make one, maybe two to get it done. Just wasn't able to happen today. It's a little disappointing. A lot more positives."

He also gave this extra nugget: "I'm happy (coach) Todd Anderson's going to be out next week because, like I said, I hit it great the first two days, but today wasn't that great. So he saw something I'm hoping on TV, which I know he did, and we'll get to work on Tuesday and hopefully be right back in this position on Sunday."

Anderson shouldn't have to do too much on his swing given that Horschel was 10th Tee To Green at the Wyndham while the putter looks just fine (he ranked 2nd in SG: Putting there).

On the season-long stats, Horschel is 11th SG: Putting, 29th Off The Tee and 48th Tee To Green.

His 30th spot in Birdie Average also bodes well and he made 24 and an eagle last week.

With form of 2-43-25-13-7 in his last five starts, the 33-year-old can give us a good run at 50s.

Staked: £934
Returned: £1007.83
P/L: +£73.83

2018/2019 P/L: -£338.25
2017/2018 P/L: +£362.84
2016/2017 P/L: +£1179.89

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