The Honda Classic Each-Way Tips: Louis can land overdue title

Main Bet: Louis Oosthuizen each-way @ 21.020/1

Check the list of past champions at The Honda Classic and something immediately jumps out.

From the start of this century we have Jesper Parnevik, Matt Kuchar, Justin Leonard, Todd Hamilton, Padraig Harrington (twice), Ernie Els, Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott and Rickie Fowler.

All nine mentioned have either won or finished runner-up in an Open Championship so it's a decent place to start.

PGA National, designed by Jack Nicklaus, is an extremely tough test by PGA Tour standards and seven of the last nine editions have been won with single digits under par.

The best winning scores in that period were 12-under but second place in those two events was achieved with 7-under and 8-under respectively.

The par 70 is difficult enough as it is but wind often adds a thick layer of protection so Open experts doing well makes a lot of sense.

I'll kick off this week's staking plan with a punt on Louis Oosthuizen at 20/1.

Fellow South Africans Els (2008) and Rory Sabbatini (well, he was at the time in 2011) have lifted this trophy and Oosthuizen's strong Open pedigree points to him following suit.

A winner of the Claret Jug in 2010, runner-up in 2015 and leader after 18, 36 and 54 holes last summer before finishing third, Oosthuizen is the highest-ranked player in the field this week at World No.13.

After the stress of all his near misses in majors last year, he deserved a break and it was a lengthy one before he returned to action in Phoenix earlier this month.

It was a promising first outing as the 39-year-old shot 67-70-67-69 to finish tied 14th.

He hasn't always played this event but, after his light schedule, it looks a good place to build momentum.

Following a couple of Louis-esque WD's on his first two visits, he made the top 25 in both 2017 and 2018 and in the latter he was in the top eight after each round before falling away.

Oosthuizen has played just once since (MC) but it does seem a place where he can shine.

A runner-up in the 2017 Players Championship at Sawgrass, Oosthuizen has a second, a sixth and an eighth in three of his last five Florida starts so he enjoys the lie of the land here.

Some of his stats also look conduicive to a title challenge. He's T4 in Bogey Avoidance (good for a tough test), 14th SG: Tee To Green and 21st in Scrambling.

Prowess in the latter two categories have been a feature of so many winners at PGA National where a deft touch around the greens is vital. Oosthuizen is also 12th in Sand Saves and there a plenty of bunkers in play.

It's one of golf's strangest stats that he hasn't yet won on American soil but 12 second places and six thirds suggest it's just not gone for him on a number of occasions.

Let's hope this is the week.

Next Best: Lee Westwood each-way at 67.066/1

Lee Westwood, as we know, doesn't have an Open win but the veteran Englishman can boast a second, two thirds and two fourths so he's a proven performer in his home major.

That ability to thrive under Open conditions has translated well to Florida and we saw that last year when he finished runner-up in back-to-back weeks in the Sunshine State.

Westwood lost a final-round duel to Bryson DeChambeau in the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill and was then edged out by a charging Justin Thomas in the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass.

Not surprisingly after two intense weeks, Westwood was rather shot when he turned up to PGA National and followed an opening 70 with a 78 to miss the cut.

But The Honda Classic is the opening event in Florida this time and that means there's a good chance Westwood can remind us what a classy operator he is on this course.

The 48-year-old had played PGA National seven times previously before coming here last year, finishing fourth in both 2012 and 2020 while also cracking the top 10 in 2010 and 2013.

He said last year: "I think you can draw on any good performances you have around any golf courses really. It gives you good feelings, good emotions for a place, and I certainly have that here.

"I used to live just across the road at Old Palm so it was a bit of a home game, and I've got a lot of friends in this area that might come out and support, as well. This is a nice week for me to come play. I'm looking forward to it.

"It's one of my favourite tournaments of the year, as well. I really enjoy this golf course. I find it a good challenge.

"There's a lot of shots out there where you've really got to commit and play the shot. I love the challenge of the Bear Trap (the tough stretch from 15-17) . It's always a bit blowy, which I like, as well."

We've not seen Westwood on the PGA Tour yet this year but he played some decent stuff in the Middle East: 20th in Abu Dhabi, 32nd at the Dubai Desert Classic and 21st at the Saudi International where he closed with a 66.

He picked up 9.002 strokes Tee-To-Green in Abu Dhabi and this is the sort of week when putting isn't the chief skill.

All the Saudi stuff could be seen as a distraction but Westwood isn't the type to get overly worried about any fallout so take him at 66/1.

Final Bet: Greyson Sigg each-way at 126.0125/1

I looked at double Honda winner Padraig Harrington at 90/1 given his encouraging play on the DP World Tour of late while 30/1 Alex Noren is also in good shape.

Another past winner, Keith Mitchell, struck it superbly in Phoenix so was a consideration at 33s but I'll take a punt on outsider Greyson Sigg at 125s.

The rookie has been bowling along nicely this season, finishing 25th at The American Express, 34th at Torrey Pines and 33rd at Pebble Beach. He had similar form at the start of this campaign when 22nd at the Bermuda and 33rd at Mayakoba.

So what could make the difference to get him to change gears this week?

I'm banking on it being the Tour switching from west coast to east.

Sigg is a Georgia guy and has a strong record in neighbouring Florida. Looking at his Korn Ferry Tour results there, in five starts across 2020 and 2021, he has two fourths, a seventh, a 16th and a 46th.

In college and on the Korn Ferry, he had a reputation as a superb ball striker who wasn't the best with the putter. But that's the style of player who should be a decent fit for PGA National.

Sigg won twice on the Korn Ferry last year (May and August) which gives him an added edge and his results suggest he's close to clicking and having a big week at this level.

Drill down and he was third at halfway of The American Express and 10th with a lap to go at Pebble Beach so he's putting in the building blocks.

He sits 35th in Bogey Avoidance so makes less mistakes than most and his putting stats have been better on Bermuda greens.

Sigg gained strokes on the greens at The American Express and he ranked top 15 for Putting Average in two of his last three Korn Ferry events in Florida.

There are enough strands of evidence to suggest that the 27-year-old can be a factor so take that 125/1.